CBS News survey: US economic outlook is optimistic, but Trump's tweets and trade policy is causing concern

A few more Americans say they are optimistic about the economy rather than pessimistic, although many are not sure. Looking at their own portfolios, Americans are more optimistic about their own financial situation than pessimistic.

As is the case with many opinions these days – even those that might seem otherwise objective – partisanship weighs on that. Republicans are particularly optimistic, Democrats a lot less, and it's a difference that affects the financial situation and income levels.

In this study, we asked the Americans why they should be optimistic or pessimistic about the economy because, if there was no single formula for Americans to measure the economy, their vision However, the economy could help determine the actual performance of the economy. The job market is the main reason why Americans are optimistic, and the optimism towards it largely outweighs the pessimism. It can also help explain why Americans are particularly optimistic about their own finances.

With regard to the future of the stock market – which has seen strong fluctuations in recent days – optimism slightly outweighs pessimism, even if it is not the case. may not be so much. Many Americans do not think their financial situation is closely related to the market, for better or for worse. Most say that it does not have much or little impact, while 13% say the market has a "considerable" impact on their finances. Just under half say they have invested money.

US trade policy, also at the top of the news, is viewed overall as a reason for pessimism rather than optimism, as are international and global events more generally.

President, evaluations of the economy and personal finance

Fifty-three percent of Americans give President Trump good marks for their management of the economy. But they are less positive about what happens when he tweets about stocks, economic issues and trade policy. Only 25% say their tweets increase self-confidence and more (38%) say it diminishes their confidence. Others say it does not have an impact. These are certainly Republicans who believe that his tweets increase confidence in the economy, but even in this case, less than half of them share this view. Most Democrats think that his tweets diminish trust and that independents tend to agree.

Over the years, many presidents have tried to build American confidence in the economy. Today, when Mr. Trump talks about the economy, most Americans (54%) think he does it better than he actually is, even though most Republicans is describing precisely. (And they think everything is fine.)

Three-quarters of Democrats and a slight majority of independents said that the president makes things healthier than they really are.

And the media are also under surveillance for their coverage of the economy. Forty-two percent of Americans think that the media is giving the economy a worse impression than before, which is more than the 34% who think the media accurately describes the economy. Republicans are particularly wary of the representation of the economy by the media.

President and trade

Mr. Trump receives more positive assessments of his management of the economy in general than of his trade policy with China. The public expresses doubts about the success of the president's commercial approach with China.

Overall, most Americans rate the work the president does on the economy as very or somewhat good, but more than half have been unwelcome in his management of trade with China.

Democrats, Republicans and independents give the president fewer positive marks for trade than for the economy.

Americans are skeptical about the success of the president's approach to trade policy with China. Only a quarter of them really believe that this will be the case, another third hopes that it will be, but they are not certain, and 44% do not think that Mr. Trump's approach will succeed .

Republicans are more optimistic than Democrats, but only 50% of them believe that Trump 's trade policy with China will be successful.

Overall, more and more Americans think that the US agriculture sector is suffering rather than being helped because of trade policies with China.

People living in households with jobs that depend on agriculture or agriculture have a relatively more positive outlook, although their assessments are shared: 41% believe that US trade policies with China have helped, but 38% say they have pain.

Compared to the general public, Americans who depend on the agricultural industry attribute to Mr. Trump a more positive job rating and feel that he is doing a good job in politics. trade with China. They are also disproportionate at first Republicans.

Many Americans believe that farmers are not the only ones to suffer. Most believe that it is American consumers who ultimately pay the cost of US tariffs on products imported from China. A majority of Democrats and Independents and nearly half of the Republicans share this view.

And the public's outlook is not particularly optimistic about trade policy as it relates to the national economy. More and more Americans think that US trade policy is a cause for pessimism (42%) rather than optimism (34%) for next year's economy. They are more optimistic about the job market.

Americans evaluating their finances

Three out of ten Americans say they have a better financial situation than two years ago. They tend to be richer. People with six-figure family income are more likely to say that those earning less than $ 100,000 and much more likely than those with incomes below $ 50,000.

Among Americans earning less than $ 50,000, four in ten say they do the same thing. Americans who say they are better off are more likely to be shareholders than others. This differentiates them from those who are equal or less well off.

And among those who say they are better off, more earn more than $ 100,000 a year, more than double those who say they are worse off today.

But partisanship could also play an important role. Democrats and Republicans report having higher incomes at comparable rates. But Republicans as a whole are almost three times more likely to say they are in better financial health (45%) than Democrats (16%).

There are partisan differences in every income bracket, including the highest. Republicans who earn more than $ 100,000 are twice as likely to say that they are better off than the Democrats who earn so much. And Republicans who earn less than $ 50,000 a year are more than twice as likely as Democrats to say they are in better financial health.

The cost of living could also play a role. Democrats earning less than $ 50,000 tend to live in cities, while Republicans earning at this level are more likely than Democrats to live in suburban or rural areas; Democrats are twice as likely to report living in cities.

Nevertheless, when Americans are asked to describe their own level of financial comfort, we find large partisan gaps at each level. Among those who say they live comfortably; among those who say they have just enough to cope with the expenses; and among those who do not – in each of these groups, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say that they feel better today than ever before.

Americans are split almost equally between those who primarily express their concerns and those who express at least some confidence in their ability to pay their bills. Most (57%) are confident of being able to afford food and shelter, but 43% are concerned from month to month.

Similarly, half express confidence in his ability to pay debts and the other no. More than half (54%) express at least some concerns about medical bills or health care.

As one might expect, these feelings are closely related to income. But they are also related to the circumstances: those who care for an elderly parent or a sick family member tend to be more concerned about their monthly bills than those who do not.

Over one-third (36%) gave up visiting a doctor or dispensing a prescription in the past year due to costs. This figure rises to four in ten among low-income people.

US finances and the 2020 vote

Political observers have long discussed the link – or sometimes the lack of connection – between the financial situation of citizens and their vote. Both evaluations appear to have a partisan component.

Most Republicans say that they are personally better off today than two years ago, but most of those who are no less so say that they still vote or probably again for Mr. Trump. Republicans who are concerned about paying their monthly food and shelter bills also vote for Trump.

In contrast, Democrats who say that they are better than two years ago, they would say overwhelmingly do not vote for Mr. Trump.

While opinions about the economy are generally related to how people vote, opinions about the state of the country are even more so. Today, two – thirds of people who think the economy is good say they are definitely or probably going to vote for Mr Trump next year, and people who are extremely optimistic about the economy (7). out of 10) say that they will certainly vote for Mr. Trump. Asset. Most pessimistic people are not.

But nine out of 10 people who think things are going very well in the country will generally vote for him; nine out of ten who think things are going very bad will not do it.

Nearly a third of people who think that the economy is good, however, think that things are going wrong in the country. Two-thirds of them say that they will certainly not vote for him. Many of these people are Democrats who probably would not have voted for the President anyway, but the same pattern applies to the independents among them. This has echoes of the 2018 mid-term when similar groups "economy is good but the state of the country is bad" voters did not back the president's party.

The CBS News survey is conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,727 US residents surveyed between Aug. 20 and 22, 2019. This sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey conducted by the US Bureau of the Census, as well as the status of the presidential vote and the 2016 registration. The margin of error is 2%.

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