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The constituency redistribution season officially kicks off with the release of detailed demographics from the US Census Bureau that will be used to redraw electoral districts nationwide – potentially helping to determine control of the United States House in the election of the United States. 2022 and providing an electoral advantage for the next decade.
New data released Thursday will show which counties, cities and neighborhoods gained or lost the most people in the 2020 census. This will serve as the basis for redrawing 429 US House districts in 44 states and 7,383 legislative districts in the United States. State across the United States. The official goal is to ensure that each district has roughly the same number of people.
But many Republicans and Democrats will operate with another goal – to ensure that the new lines divide and combine voters in ways that increase the chances of their party’s candidates winning future elections, a process called gerrymandering. Party successes in this effort could determine whether taxes and spending increase, whether climate change policies are approved, or whether access to abortion is expanded or restricted.
Republicans only need five seats to take control of the United States House in the 2022 election – a margin that could potentially be covered by a shrewd redistribution.
“Redistribution is really the ball game of this cycle in the House,” said David Wasserman, congressional race analyst at the Cook Political Report. “Even small changes to district lines could have huge implications that could tip the balance of power in the House.”
As they did after the 2010 census, Republicans will have greater influence in the redistribution process.
The GOP will control the redistribution in 20 states representing 187 US House seats, including the growing states of Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. In contrast, Democrats will control the redistribution in just eight states representing 75 seats, including New York and Illinois, where losing a seat in each gives them a chance to oust incumbent Republican officials.
In another 16 states representing 167 seats in the US House, districts will be appointed either by independent committees or by politically divided politicians with legislative chambers led by one party and governors from another. Six states only have one seat in the United States House, so there are no district boundaries to draw.
States with large population shifts offer some of the best opportunities for parties to gain an advantage through redistribution. They can add a favorable quarter, eliminate an inmate by their opponent, or redesign a competitive quarter to contain a more comfortable majority of supporters.
In Texas, where Republicans hold 23 of 36 US House seats, rapid growth in the suburbs of Houston, Dallas and Austin has helped the state gain two seats in the new round of redistribution. That growth has been driven by the migration of young Latino, black, and university-educated residents – all grassroots Democratic ridings, said Kelly Ward Burton, chair of the National Democratic Redistribution Committee.
“If you look at how the population has changed over the decade and draw a consistent map with that, Democrats win seats,” Burton said.
But the Republicans in charge of the redistribution could draw maps that divide these Democratic-leaning voters, adding some to the predominantly Republican districts to give the GOP a chance to win even more seats in Texas.
In Florida, which is also winning a seat in the United States House, Republicans could use the redistribution as an opportunity to redraw the lines in rapidly growing central Florida to try and ensure seats held by the Democrats have more GOP voters. Democratic Representatives Charlie Crist in St. Petersburg and Val Demings in Orlando are pursuing nominations for governor and the U.S. Senate respectively, leaving those districts without incumbents and making obvious targets for remodeling.
After the 2010 census, Republicans who controlled the redistribution in many more states than Democrats drew maps that gave them a greater political advantage in more states than either party in the over the past 50 years, according to a new analysis from The Associated Press..
But Republicans won’t hold as much power as they did last time around in some key states. The Republican-led legislatures will be twinned with the Democratic governors of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both of whom had full control of the GOP after the 2010 census. In Michigan, a voter-approved citizens commission will handle the redistribution of the government. place of legislators and governor. And in Ohio, voter-approved redistribution reforms will require majority Republicans to gain support from minority Democrats in order for the new districts to last a full decade.
Ultimately, however the lines are drawn, elections are won based on the quality of the candidates and their stance on the issues, said Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, the center redistribution of the GOP.
“Republicans will return to the House next year because of the outdated policies of the Congressional Democrats and the failing leadership of President Biden,” Kincaid said.
The redistribution process will be conducted on a compressed schedule. States are receiving the data more than four months later than initially expected due to difficulties completing the 2020 census during the coronavirus pandemic.
This means that card designers will have to work quickly to meet constitutional deadlines in some states or seek judicial approval to take longer. Ohio’s constitution, for example, sets a deadline of Sept. 15 for a council to approve new state legislative maps.
“We’re a little confused as to how quickly we can do this,” said Ohio Senate Speaker Matt Huffman, a Republican member of the Constituency Council.
In many states, new districts are subject to lawsuits as political parties continue to fight for the best possible cards. After the 2010 census, the redistribution trials lasted much of the next decade and resulted in significant changes in some states. Democrats won a total of 11 seats in the United States House after courts struck down Republican-drawn districts in four states and ordered new ones between the 2016 and 2020 elections.
“If it hadn’t been for the Democratic lawsuits that overturned Republicans-drawn maps in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Virginia, Democrats would not currently have a majority in the House,” said Wasserman.
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