For some people, this Oscars season has been "fun and exciting". For others, it's like having the stomach flu. Just when you think the shots and vomiting of the projectile are definitely over, a whole new round starts again. For me, it does not look like an Oscar race. It looks like an election. Whatever the case may be, as there will be a winner and a loser in 2020, there will be winners and losers on Sunday night. That's what we know for sure. The rest – well, it's a whiplash. We always say that and we often think it most of the time, but this time it's really a mistake, because of the various stories that are played out and the way in which the victories were disappointing.
Essentially, there is no con; Rasensus on the best image. If Roma had reached a consensus, would not she have won the PGA easily, with a preferential vote? If Green Book was a consensus, would not he have the name of best director? If Black Panther was a consensus, would not it have at least won the APG and written, directed or played nominations? If BlacKkKlansman was the winner of the consensus, would not he have won a single prize somewhere? SAG? The WGA? If The Favor got a consensus, why did not he win the PGA, or was he nominated for the DGA or the SAG?
Kris Tapley has published his predictions on what he thinks is most likely to win in all categories. In the next few days, we will have more forecasts and maybe some people will be lucky. In reality, it's like betting on a horse race and honestly, even horse racing has real odds. We have "probabilities" at the Oscars, but these probabilities are based on what people like me think and are therefore useless for people like me. At the same time, there are so many different ways that this thing could fall.
In truth, we are all fly blind.
Frontrunners and their challengers:
Pioneers: Roma (DGA), Green Paper (PGA)
Challengers: Black Panther (SAG), BlacKkKlansman (stats champion for nominations, but no win)
We made the best movie to death and there is no favorite. He simply does not have one. All the measures we use have been removed. We can only go with the big guilds and maybe a little bit of BAFTA influence. The WGA gave us two winners who were not nominated in the Best Film category, so they went out. On paper, Roma seems to be the right choice until you consider the evidence: she is also nominated in a foreign language film, and at the Oscars , no film has won both the best film and a separate feature film category. No doc, no animation and no stranger. They have separate categories for a reason. Will some voters like the movie so much that they put it in both? Of course, they will do it. And it could win. I would probably have to accept that if I bet a lot of money, but something prevents me from doing it. It may also be the Netflix case. The elders will refuse to give this film to the best film. And then there is the question of people who do not watch her. It's on Netflix and people still do not look at it. Why? Because many people do not like watching subtitled movies. Shout everything you want but it's just the fact.
When I started my website in 2000, for the first time in my life, I was predicting the best movie. I went to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to beat Gladiator. Gladiator won the PGA. Crouching Tiger won the DGA. The traffic has won the SAG. In the end, Soderbergh won the Best Director award, Crouching Tiger learned a foreign language and Gladiator won the BP award. I will not repeat the same mistake 20 years later! So I will most likely stay with the PGA winner. And if it were not the case, I would choose the winner of the SAG.
Frontrunner: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Challenger: Christian Bale, Vice President
Frontrunner: Glenn Close, the wife
Challenger: Olivia Colman, the favorite
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Frontrunner: Mahershala Ali, Green Paper
Challenger: Richard E. Grant, can you forgive me
There have been rumors that Grant's advertising train is going to be too hard to resist. That his display of emotion after the endearing name finally wins the voters. Ali will only lose this if voters want to be morons and continue to punish the Green Book. And look, if there is one thing I know for sure after 53 years on this planet: people are mainly morons. By nature. We must work hard every day to not be. So yes, who knows. Both performances are excellent, however, and I hope we will be able to celebrate each and every one of them if they win. I loved both performances. Ali's plays a more prominent role, a more accomplished role, which makes it difficult to forget.
Conversely, Colman in The Favorite is more of a supportive role, making it more difficult to bet against a leading role, such as Glenn Close.
The best actress in a supporting role
Frontrunner: Regina King, if Beale Street could speak
Challengers: Tavira Marina, Rome; Rachel Weisz, the favorite
First starter: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Challenger: He does not, but if he did, it would be Spike Lee to make history as the first black director to finally win the Oscar.
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunner: Unknown – it was Green paperbut since he did not win the Writers Guild and a film that is not nominated for the Oscar DID? We do not have a favorite here.
The favourite has so many nominations, and won the BAFTA, that he could be the favorite. Paul Schrader is ready for the price and whoever knows who he is might be inclined to give him an Oscar for First reformed. Roma could sweep and win here. And Vice could win because he also has key appointments and could win something. It's a shit.
Best adapted scenario
Frontrunner: Unknown – most thought it was BlacKkKlansman and that could still be, although WGA's victory for Can you ever forgive me shows that there is a slight rise for this, especially since Nicole Holofcener is one of the nominees.
Challengers: probably you can forgive me, If Beale Street could speak
Frontrunners: either Bohemian Rhapsody or The favouritesince both have won the Eddie.
challengers: Green paperwho, if he wins the award for the best film, the supporting actor and the screenplay could also be edited. Vice is a real challenge here. And of course BlacKkKlansman could win, signaling that the film will finally start to win victories. Essentially, this too is a whore.
First runner: Roma – this film is mainly cinematographic, just like Gravity and Children of Men are mainly cinematographic. Cuaron is, by heart, a director of photography and, therefore, this film is a celebration of his unique talent with the frame.
Challenger: one – Cold Warthat more people could actually watch. The favourite could also win here.
Sound mixing / sound editing
First runner: Bohemian Rhapsody – After winning both BAFTA and CAS awards, he seems ready to accept both categories of sounds.
challengers: Black Panther – This film seems about to win many Oscars and win two sonic victories would certainly take care of that.
First man – the only women candidates for sound are on First Man, both in sound and editing. This could help push him to win.
Frontrunner: The favorite
Challenger: Black Panther
Frontrunner: The favorite
Challenger: Black Panther
Frontrunner: Black Panther
Challenger: No matter which one
Frontrunner: "Shallow", a star is born
Challenger: does not have one, but if so, "I will fight", RBG
Frontrunner: Spider-Man: in the Spider-Verse
Challenger: Incredibles 2
Frontrunner: seems to be a free solo
Challengers: Any of the five, especially Minding the Gap, RGB, Hale County
A foreign language
First runner: Roma
Challenger: cold war
Personally, I have never felt as confident about the outcome of the Oscars as I am this year. Anyway, anyone who gets there will have to take a lucky break. There is no skill involved in determining all this.