Checking the facts 7 statistical claims of Biden’s (fairly factual) economic discourse



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We have verified the facts of many statistical claims Biden made in the speech – and found Biden to be very factual, although there are a few nuances to note. Here is an assessment of seven of the requests we reviewed:

Facts first: This figure is roughly correct, but it is based on a broad definition of “educators”.

Biden’s claim is based on official federal data on people employed in “local government education.” This data indeed shows a loss of over 600,000 jobs – 681,400 jobs, in particular – between January 2020 and December 2020 (data for December is preliminary and could be adjusted later.) It should be noted, however, however. , that these numbers include all who are employed by local educational institutions – including people such as cafeteria workers, guards and students who are on the payroll for various reasons – so “educators” do not should not be interpreted to mean teachers specifically.

Poverty

Biden said: “In total, the US bailout would lift 12 million Americans out of poverty and cut child poverty in half. That represents 5 million children lifted out of poverty. Our plan would reduce poverty into poverty. black community by a third and would reduce poverty. in the Hispanic community by nearly 40 percent. “

Facts first: These figures are obviously forecasts rather than guarantees; Biden got them from a “preliminary analysisBy academics at Columbia University’s Center on Poverty and Social Policy, who examined the impact of some elements of his plan. Like other economic models, this analysis was based on various assumptions about the future that may not materialize. But other experts say the Columbia figures Biden cited make sense.
Among other assumptions, the researchers assumed an average unemployment rate of 6% for 2021. It is plausible – the rate for December was 6.7%; the Federal Reserve expects a decline to 5.0% in 2021. “These estimates are very reasonable,” Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute, said of the numbers cited by Biden. Strain added, “The Biden plan contains several provisions that would significantly increase the incomes of low-income households. One would expect this to have a significant impact on child poverty rates, and the estimates produced in this report are very reasonable. ”

Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, director of the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University, said that “their assumptions appear reasonable and they are known to do careful analysis.”

You can click here for a summary of what’s in Biden’s plan. It includes additional direct payments, increased unemployment benefits, billions in housing and food assistance, billions in child care, an increase in the child tax credit and an increase in the minimum wage. from $ 7.25 per hour to $ 15 per hour.

Pre-existing conditions

Biden touted an executive order to ensure people can still receive unemployment benefits if they turn down a job offer because they believe the job will put themselves or their families at risk from Covid -19. He said, “Right now, about 40 percent of households in America have at least one limb with a pre-existing condition.”

Facts first: This figure is approximately correct, according to research data. “In fact, that’s probably an understatement,” said Cynthia Cox, vice president of the Kaiser Family Foundation, which studies health issues.

A Gallup poll in November found that 48% of respondents said they or a family member living with them had a pre-existing condition, Gallup told CNN. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimated in 2019 that 45% of non-elderly families had at least one non-elderly adult member with a pre-existing condition. If you include people aged 65 and over in the analysis, Cox noted, the figure would be even higher.

Covid-19 deaths

Speaking of the coronavirus crisis in the United States, Biden said: “We are 400,000 dead, they are expected to reach well over 600,000.”

Facts first: Different experts have different expectations, but Biden’s “well over 600,000” figure is, unfortunately, highly plausible.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, there have been more than 413,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States as of the day Biden spoke. A model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now predicts a total of 569,000 deaths by May 1, and there will almost certainly be more deaths after that date. Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, said Biden’s statement was “a reasonable projection.”

Minimum wage and poverty

Boasting his proposal to raise the federal minimum wage to $ 15 an hour from the current $ 7.25 an hour, Biden said, “No one in America should be working 40 hours a week below the threshold. poverty. Fifteen dollars puts people above the poverty line. ”

Facts first: It is true that some people who are currently below the poverty line would fall above the poverty line if the federal minimum wage were raised to $ 15 an hour: the Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2019 that a salary a minimum of $ 15 “would move roughly 1.3 million people out of poverty on the net.” Others offer different estimates; Ben Zipperer, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank, said: “We think the CBO estimate is too pessimistic.” He said it was “more plausible” that between 1.9 million and 4.0 million people would be lifted out of poverty.

The CBO said families below the poverty line under current law would see an average 5.2% increase in their income due to the increase in the minimum wage, while families above the line poverty under current law would see an average 0.1% reduction in their income (in part due to a reduction in business income). The CBO added: “In an average week in 2025, the $ 15 option would raise the wages of 17 million workers who would otherwise earn less than $ 15 an hour. Another 10 million workers would otherwise earn. just over $ 15 an hour could see their wages increase. But 1.3 million more workers would become unemployed, according to the CBO’s median estimate. ”

While the overall economic impact of an increase in the federal minimum wage is complicated to assess, it’s easy to understand the basics of how it would improve the prospects for some workers. The weighted average poverty line in 2019 for a family of four was $ 26,172. At the current federal minimum wage of $ 7.25 an hour, a person would be more than $ 11,000 below this poverty line even if they worked 40 hours a week for 52 weeks a year. Earning $ 15 an hour, that person would cross the threshold if they worked 44 weeks a year.

“So as a labor standard – yes, a minimum wage of $ 15 could be accurately described as allowing most families to pass the poverty line if they work full time all year round,” said Jeannette Wicks-Lim, Associate Research Professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Wicks-Lim noted that there were nuances here. Some people have part-time hours, part-year jobs, or larger families; the cost of living varies considerably by location, but the official poverty line does not take this fact into account; exceeding the poverty line may mean that only one person has “escaped severe deprivation”, she said, and not that “he or she is able to maintain a decent standard of living”.

Hunger

Biden said, “We need to tackle America’s growing hunger crisis. One in seven households in America – one in seven – more than one in five Black and Latino households in America report not having enough to eat. “

Facts first: These numbers were correct in December, according to The data of the Census Bureau’s latest survey of the food situation of Americans (which the bureau says is an “experimental” survey).

Between December 9 and 21, 14% of adults, 24% of black adults, and 21% of Latino adults said they often or sometimes did not have enough to eat in the past seven days.

Biden’s plan includes a variety of measures aimed at curbing hunger, including an extension, until September, of a 15% increase in the benefits of food stamps that Trump enacted in December. The extension is currently scheduled to expire at the end of June.

Tenants

Biden said, “About 14 million Americans – 14 million – have fallen behind on rent, and many face eviction.”

Facts first: Fourteen million is a plausible number that extrapolates somewhat from the December Census Bureau results.

The office’s experimental survey from Dec. 9 to 21 found that 10.1 million renters lived in households that were not catching up on rent. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a progressive think tank, came up with the 14 million figure by adjusting Census Bureau data to account for the fact that many tenants did not respond to the survey.
CNN reported in December that investment bank and consultancy firm Stout found that more than 14 million U.S. households were at risk of eviction at the time. The Census Bureau’s investigation found that 5.2 million people said it was very likely or somewhat likely that they would have to leave their homes due to an eviction within the next two months.

Biden’s bailout would provide $ 25 billion in housing assistance to low- and middle-income households who lost their jobs during the pandemic (in addition to the $ 25 billion Trump approved in December). Another $ 5 billion is intended to help struggling households pay their utility bills. And an additional $ 5 billion is intended for states and communities to help those at risk of becoming homeless.

Regardless of the bailout that must be approved by Congress, Biden took executive action on his first day in office to extend, until the end of March, pandemic moratoriums on many evictions and foreclosures. The moratoriums approved by Trump were due to expire at the end of January.

CNN’s Katie Lobosco and Tami Luhby contributed to this report.

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