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I’m sure there were a number of hugs shared last night, as rumor started to circulate during the game that the Cubs were working on a trade to send dominant left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin to the Oakland A’s. Soon after, the Cubs officially made it official, announcing the deal that would give them two new prospects – Triple-A outfielder Greg Diechmann and Low-A right-hander Daniel Palencia – and send Chafin to the A’s AL Wild-Card.
Chafin, 31, arrived at the Cubs last year on a deal with a deadline, and while he wasn’t that healthy or effective in 2020, they clearly saw something in him. He was a priority re-signing, even in a tight winter, and he’s taken it to the next level this year thanks to a revamped lead. His ERA was just over 2.00 and until his last outing he was leading a streak of 24+ scoreless innings. He’s going to be a huge boost for the A’s reliever box, and hopefully we can see him and his mustache deep in the playoffs. Thank goodness the Cubs didn’t trade him to the Yankees!
As for the return of the Cubs, I think it’s quite significant. The funny thing is that because the market has been so tight, and because of things like the Pirates who set up two intriguing prospects for a pretty meh reliever, my expectations for Chafin’s return had already considerably. increases. I had explored trades in the recent past for some really good rental relievers with no deadline closing, and while the Cubs’ return fits those trades, it really looks like they got the best of what. you might expect: a top ten system prospect and a 15/30 system prospect (albeit in a lower third system) for a good rental lifter without a fence might be the best return for THIS TYPE of reliever over the past five years. It’s probably a tight market product – happy new year for being a seller, I guess! – and also the fact that Chafin is way better than most guys like him who have been moved.
Top ten guy outfielder Greg Diechmann was a 2017 second round – 43rd overall – under (now Cubs Scout vice-president) Dan Kantrovitz, who was then leading the A’s draft. on raw power, but that has yet to be his pro-ball transport tool, as it appears he’s been working to improve his touch (at the expense of playing power). Although he has just turned 26 and age certainly matters when we project the development of outlook, it is important to remember the impact of the pandemic on age delays – Diechmann a was drafted in college, made the rookie ball, then made High-A in 2018, Double-A in 2019, pandemic in 2020 and Triple-A in 2021. It’s a regular and normal development schedule. So it’s good.
Hitting within the very friendly Las Vegas limits, Diechmann has posted a line of .300 / .433 / .452 this year, which is good for a 128 wRC + in this league. It is important to note that the 23.0% withdrawal rate is not glaring and the 19.2% walk rate is mind-blowing. You’d want more power output (especially in Las Vegas) from a big, strong left-handed bat like his, but hopefully that’s just part of the development process. Work on the contact ability, make sure you don’t lose the discipline of the plate in the process, then the power comes back last. We have seen this before.
Diechmann was ranked 8th on FanGraphs A’s updated prospect list ahead of the trade, and 9th on the MLB Pipeline, where they highlight what held him back a bit:
Persistent injuries slowed his development, although he showed well in the Arizona Fall League in 2019 with nine home runs. He also remained healthy at the alternative site last year.
The injuries led Deichmann to learn to take care of his body and prepare for the long haul after he was often too stiff to trim. He worked to improve his elasticity to the plate by staying more on the court and keeping his shoulder down to reduce his swing and misses, which allowed his walking pace to increase. Power comes naturally with its strength and natural loft.
Deichmann has a strong arm and powerful corner fielder profiles. His basic running skills are decent and allow him to slip a few bags despite below average speed. The key for him will be to stay healthy.
As you know, the Cubs’ system is extremely thin on field talent, especially at the higher levels, so the addition of Diechmann could be a big move in the near term. That’s not to say he was acquired to start permanently in an outfield corner in 2022 with the Big League Cubs, but he could definitely get that shot. It’s possible he’ll take a peek in the second half, even, but I tend to think he’s more likely to end the year in Iowa, and be a top-down guy the year. next who will have the chance to stay if he really shows up. It depends a bit on what’s going on elsewhere in the outfield for the Cubs in the corners (and also, I guess, adding the DH in the NL will give Deichmann more of a chance to hold up). There is certainly a steady rise in the outfield around the corner everyday here.
As a 40+ FV guy at FanGraphs, it looks like Deichmann will rank in the 12-15 range in the Cubs system, which looks about right.
Palencia, 21, is a really intriguing pure scouting game, and I wonder if the Cubs had a unique idea about him in one way or another. Despite being in the 2019-2020 IFA class, he didn’t actually sign until February 2020, meaning he wasn’t a guy who had already been locked in a deal for years ( and wouldn’t necessarily be a huge bonus guy, as most bonus pools were sold out by that time). He was also a teenage pitcher from Venezuela, two factors limiting screening (i.e. international perspectives among adolescents are notoriously difficult to project, and Scout presences in Venezuela are increasingly limited and among only a handful of organizations (including the cubs)).
That’s all to say that we don’t know much about Palencia! He’s just kicked off a staged ball this year, making his Low-A debut, which is a tough task considering his inexperience even at 21. But the scout reports all indicate he was a guy who broke, at least on the speed side, pushing it to triple digits this year at times. It was enough that when they got a chance to look at it earlier this year, the team at FanGraphs ranked Palencia 12th among the top prospects in the A system:
It was released in 2021 Extended casting tremendous heat in just an outing or two before being sent to Stockton shortly before the list was released. He was 97-99 on those outings. Palencia is a crouching youngster with longer arm action, but he has a sense of creating missing breaking ball depth, and he obviously has a huge arm. There’s less track record here than is typical for most 21-year-old prospects, but Palencia has a long development trail as he’s just signed. He’s an exciting prospect due to the strength of his arms and shattering ball, but the rest is still a blur as exposure to the industry has been limited to a few innings.
Don’t be surprised if this is a relatively long development process for Palencia, who luckily doesn’t qualify for Rule 5 for a few years, so the Cubs have time to work with him. I watched a video, and it’s pretty hard not to see a future reliever – rather than a starter – but there’s no rush there. His results so far at Low-A have been pretty tough across six pro outings and 14.1 innings (11 ER, 17 H, 6 BB, 3 HBP, 4 WP, 14 K).
As a 40+ FV prospect for FanGraphs, Palencia will end up somewhere among the teens in the Cubs’ farm system in their updated rankings, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it remains unclassified by most. services until there is more time to keep an eye on or the results match the screening.
We’ll have more on Deichmann and Palencia soon.
As for Chafin, what else to say? The guy was absolutely nailed there and had a lot of fun while he was doing it. We’re joking about the mustache, but that’s just because it kind of symbolized his laid back and fun nature, I’m going to be me, which made him so magnetic. He was smiling over there on the mound, thumbs up, rocking his obvious ‘FAILED STARTER’ shirt, and glowing when he was at the microphone, talking about living on a boat. We knew it was coming, and relievers like Chafin are always a bit more transient, so I’m glad we got to enjoy the time he spent here. I hope he and his boat and his mustache kick ass in Oakland.
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