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As this kid says in that really old meme: is this real life? So bad. But it’s in my head.
That’s how shocked I was this morning to see that he reported that the Cubs are signing a legitimate free agent right now for what will, presumably, be a real contract costing real dollars:
Free agent outfielder Joc Pederson agrees with Cubs on physical hold, sources say @TheAthletic.
– Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 29, 2021
Nothing about the Cubs’ offseason so far, from not submitting sales deals to avoiding reasonable prior signings to not bringing Jon Lester back despite his desire to picking up on a good deal, you would have told they were in the market for a deal like this. Not that it’s a HUGE signing, but it’s going to cost them real money.
Pederson, 28, will remind many people of Kyle Schwarber if you just look at the oddly similar stat lines so far in their careers:
And, indeed, in many ways Pederson looks to replace Schwarber in left field. Powerful left bat that you will have to curl up at times, and with an upward offense yet to be realized, coming out of a waning 2020? Similar.
However, there are some important differences. For one thing, Pederson can play all over the field, and in left field he actually ranks as a very good defender. Schwarber, for all his work there, had become just “passable”. If Ian Happ is to be in the middle of the pitch, where he’s still developing, it’ll be much better for the overall defense in the outfield if he’s a guy like Pederson on the left rather than Schwarber.
Another key difference? Since 2017, Pederson has actually morphed into something of a near-contact type hitter. Surprising, considering his profile, but in those more than 1,400 home plate appearances he’s taken 3% off less often than the league average. Yes, this is a contact upgrade.
Pederson was also a bit more productive, never really having a monster season:
Another advantage here? Pederson had a declining regular season of 2020, but exploded during the Dodgers’ playoff race to the title, hitting 0.382 / 0.432 / 0.559 on 37 AP, which if you factor in with his 138 regular season AP. , would give it. a fairly normal season for itself. That is the problem with these short season stats.
The downside here is that Pederson has become virtually unusable against other lefties. For his career he’s hitting just .191 / .266 / .310 against lefties (59 wRC +), and at this point where you might have seen signs of hope that Schwarber could be a full time guy. , there are not any. really these signs (which I’m aware of) with Pederson. He’s a platoon guy, from start to finish. Pair it with Phillip Ervin or Michael Hermosillo and you might have a great production overall.
More soon.
UPDATE: If this is the full scope of the deal, it’s cheap:
Joc Pederson has agreed to a one-year, $ 7 million contract with the Chicago Cubs, sources told ESPN. The first one with the deal was @Ken_Rosenthal.
– Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 29, 2021
Keep in mind that Schwarber had to get more than that in arbitration when the Cubs decided not to bid him. Then Schwarber got $ 10 million from the Nationals ($ 7 million salary, $ 3 million buyout on a mutual option). So at first glance it looks like the Cubs got the best suited player for the smaller deal. I love Schwarber on all appropriate levels, but it feels like a good trade all things considered.
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