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In what was perhaps the most exciting match of the 2018 World Cup, Belgium made a historic comeback Monday and beat Japan 3-2 to secure a place in the quarter-finals .
After a hectic start, the so-called "golden generation" of Belgian football has managed to make the most of its football and qualify to overcome its best presentation until here in a World Cup: the half -final of Mexico 1986 . And he has elements to achieve this, like his stars Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne
But perhaps also the story is on his side.
The BBC conducted a detailed badysis by statistics, trends and models of the last World Cups and on that basis managed to eliminate 31 countries – many of which have already come out – and concluded that the The team led by Roberto Martinez is the favorite to lift the trophy for the first time. [1 9659002] Here is an explanation of how we arrived at this conclusion.
1. Having been group leader
Since the World Cup has increased to 32 teams in 1998, all the selections that have been world champions have been sown as group heads before the draw .
There are only eight teams left: Russia, Portugal, France, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Poland and, as we know, Belgium.
taking into account only this detail, of these eight and four said goodbye to the World Cup : Argentina, Portugal, Poland and l 39; current world champion, Germany
2. Not being the hosts
Russia entered this group of eight because of its locality because its 66 position in the FIFA rankings would not have allowed it to be sown at the top of group for the draw.
However, in this badysis, being the host team does not play in their favor according to what happened in the past.
In the first 11 editions of the World Cup, from 1930 to 1978, five of the countries hosting the tournament ended up with the first prize.
However, since 1945, only one selection, France in 1998, was able to celebrate in his While for the United States, Japan, South Korea and South Africa it was unlikely that the locals win the World Cup, it is true that Italy in 1990, Germany in 2006 and Brazil four years, it has not helped much to be hosts.
For this reason, sacamo s to Russia's group. Seven remain.
3. Keeping the goal to zero
At the age of 32 teams for each World Cup, none of the five champions conceded more than four goals in 1945.
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And if we look at the statistics of the seven teams, Poland had by far the worst defense during its qualification process for Russia 2018: 1.4 goals per game.
But this data is like a wet rain: reaches the second round of the World Cup. So, in this badysis, there are only six teams left.
4. Being from Europe
The world champions have been only national European and South American teams. Until recently, Europeans struggled to win World Cups off their continent, but that changed when Spain won in South Africa 2010 and Germany in Brazil 2014. [19659002] Of course, when the World Cup is played in Europe, very difficult for visitors: only Brazil has obtained an orbital title on European soil. But it was in Sweden in 1958.
So, for this reason, Argentina comes out of our badysis – although it is not the case. She also left the World Cup when she was eliminated by France in the eighths – and also came out of Brazil, even though he is still in the running.
Having the best goalkeeper
One might think that having the best striker guarantees victory at the World Cup, but only twice, since Spain 1982, the World Cup scorer was l & # 39; 39; team that became champion: Ronaldo for Brazil in 2002 and David Villa for Spain in 2010.
Now the world champions are more defined by their goalkeepers. The last five best goalkeepers of the championship – who win the trophy "Golden Glove" – were the champion team.
So, for the teams that remain in this badysis, it is not difficult to think that Hugo Lloris, of France, and Thibaut Courtois, of Belgium, can be crowned the best of the tournament
This also applies to Manuel Neuer, from Germany. But it was more difficult to put at this level of the candidate Rui Patricio, of Portugal – who finally had several masterful judgments –
Therefore, of the four remaining selections, we left Portugal of the teams with options. A decision confirmed because the Lusitano team has already said goodbye to Russia 2018 in the round of 16.
6. The experience counts
The teams that have been world champions are usually very experienced, a trend that began to develop after the World Cup in France in 1998.
On this occasion, the French who ended up retaining the title they had a team in which each player had at least 22 calls to the selection, on average
This number was increasing in every World Cup: Brazil's players averaged 28.04 calls in 2002, Italy's 32.9 in 2006, and the United States. Spain 38.3 in 2010.
We have applied in the same concept the three selections that remain in this badysis. France has an average of 24.56, while Germany has 43.26 and Belgium 45.1
So, we remove France from this list.
7. Not to be the defending champions
It has already been demonstrated: the world title is hard to defend. Since Brazil managed to retain the title of champion in Chile in 1962, no other team has reached it.
Germany, current champion, made a tournament to forget and for the first time in history the group phase
It repeats a pattern that took place during the last tournaments: the defending champions fail to cross the first round
He spends with France in 2002, with Italy in 2010 and with Spain in 2014. [19659002] Despite the huge pedigree of the German team, history was against them for this World Cup.
Thus, they have: Belgium will be the world champion according to history . Unless another selection does it, which is also very possible
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