Why Belgium is the national team with the best chance of winning the 2018 World Cup (according to history)

In what was perhaps the most exciting match of the 2018 World Cup, Belgium made a historic comeback Monday and beat Japan 3-2 to secure a place in the quarter-finals .

After a hectic start, the so-called "golden generation" of Belgian football has managed to put the best of its football and clbadify it in order to overcome its best presentation until here in a World Cup : the semifinal of Mexico 1986 . And he has elements to make it happen, like his stars Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne

But maybe too the story is on his side.

The BBC has carried out a detailed badysis by statistics, trends and models of the last World Cups and on the basis of that has managed to eliminate 31 of the countries – many of which are already in the world. outside – and concluded that the team heads Roberto Martinez is the favorite to raise the trophy for the first time.

Here is an explanation of how we arrived at this conclusion.

1. Having been group leader

Since the World Cup has increased to 32 teams in 1998, all the selections that have been world champions have been sown as group leaders before the draw .

way, 24 teams are discarded.

There are only eight teams left: Russia, Portugal, France, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Poland and, as we already know, Belgium [19659012] 19659014] four said goodbye to the World Cup : Argentina, Portugal, Poland and the current world champion, Germany

2. Not being the hosts

Russia entered this group of eight because of its locality because its 66 position in FIFA's ranking would not have allowed it to be sown at the top of group for the draw.

However, in this badysis, being the host team does not play in their favor according to what has happened in the past.

In the first 11 editions of the World Cup, from 1930 to 1978, five of the countries that hosted the tournament ended up with the jackpot.

However, since then only a selection, France in 1998, could celebrate in his own home.

If for the United States, Japan, South Korea and South Africa it was unlikely that the locals won the World Cup, it is true that Italy in 1990, Germany in 2006 and Brazil four years ago. he served as many hosts.

For this reason, we took Russia out of the group. Seven remain.

3. Keeping the goal to zero

At the age of 32 teams for each World Cup, none of the five champions has conceded more than four goals in the seven games.

And if we look at the statistics of the seven teams, Poland has by far the worst defense during its qualification process for Russia 2018: 1.4 goals per game.

But these data are like rain did not reach the second round of the World Cup. So, in this badysis, there are only six teams left.

4. Being from Europe

The world champions have only been European and South American national teams. Until recently, Europeans struggled to win World Cups off their continent, but that changed when Spain won in South Africa 2010 and Germany in Brazil 2014. [19659002] Of course, when the World Cup is played in Europe, very difficult for visitors: only Brazil has obtained an orbital title on European soil. But it was in Sweden in 1958.

So, for this reason, Argentina comes out of our badysis – although it also left the World Cup when it was eliminated by France in the second round – and also leaves the Brazil, even though she is still racing.

Having the best goalkeeper

One might think that having the best striker guarantees victory at the World Cup, but only twice, since Spain 1982, the World Cup scorer was the 39; team that became champion: Ronaldo for Brazil in 2002 and David Villa for Spain in 2010.

Now the world champions are more defined by their goalkeepers. The last five best goalkeepers of the championship – who won the trophy "Golden Glove" – were the champion team.

So, for the teams that remain in this badysis, it is not difficult to think that Hugo Lloris, of France, and Thibaut Courtois, of Belgium, can be crowned as the best of the tournament

This also applies to Manuel Neuer, from Germany. But it was more difficult to put at this level of the candidate Rui Patricio, of Portugal – who finally had several masterful judgments –

Therefore, of the four remaining selections, we left Portugal of the teams with options. A decision confirmed because the Lusitanian team has already said goodbye to Russia 2018 in the round of 16.

6. The experience counts

The teams that have been world champions are usually very experienced, a trend that began to develop after the World Cup in France in 1998.

On this occasion, the French who ended up retaining the title they had a team in which each player had at least 22 calls to the selection, on average

This number increased at each World Cup: Brazilian players averaged 28.04 calls in 2002, Italy 32.9 in 2006 and Spain 38 , 3 in 2010. [19659002] We apply in the same concept the three selections that we left in this badysis. France has an average of 24.56, while Germany has 43.26 and Belgium 45.1

So, we remove France from this list.

7. Not to be the defending champions

It has already been shown: the world title is hard to defend. Since Brazil managed to retain the title of champion in Chile in 1962, no other team has reached it.

Germany, current champion, made a tournament to forget and for the first time in history the group phase

It repeats a pattern that took place during the last tournaments: the defending champions fail to cross the first round

He spends with France in 2002, with Italy in 2010 and with Spain in 2014. [19659002] Despite the huge pedigree from the German team, history was against them for this World Cup.

Thus, they have: Belgium will be the world champion according to history . Unless another selection does it, which is also very possible.

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