China tariffs do not cover the costs of Trump's trade war



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WASHINGTON – President Trump on Monday described America as the winner of its trade war, saying tariffs were punishing the Chinese economy while generating billions of dollars for the United States, an economic victory that will allow it to continue his fight without inner damage.

"We took tens of billions of dollars in tariffs from China," Trump told reporters at an event on the "Made in America" ​​product at the White House. While China has withdrawn $ 16 billion "from the table" by ending its US agriculture purchases, he said, the US has "taken a lot, much more – much more often in customs duties ".

Government figures show that US tariff revenues on Chinese goods worth $ 250 billion are not enough to cover the President's cost of saving farmers, let alone offset the many other industries affected by trade tensions. The longer the dispute between Mr. Trump and China, the more difficult it may be for him to ignore this gap.

Trump's customs duties on imports from China were worth $ 20.8 billion on Wednesday, according to data from US Customs and Border Protection. Mr. Trump is already committed to paying $ 28 billion to American farmers victims of the trade war.

There are few signs, however, that the loss of China is the gain of America. Much of the business activity is moving to other low-cost countries, such as Vietnam, with a transitional cost for US companies that depend on it.

Many companies have announced changes in their supply chains or other price effects, and others may be revealed as companies report their second quarter results in the next few months. weeks. Nintendo has accelerated the transfer of its Switch console to Vietnam from China, according to Panjiva, a supply chain research company, while GoPro, Hasbro and other companies rework their supply chains to reduce their exposure to China.

The president and his advisers argued that the time had come to try to compel China to change business practices that they said hurt American companies and led to the loss of US jobs. The administration argues that the status quo was not without cost to the US economy. An investigation by the administration on the theft of intellectual property in China revealed that China's policies had caused the US economy a loss of at least $ 50 billion a year.

Many trade experts and business leaders support the confrontation with Beijing, and some have said the high cost of the trade war would be worth it if the US could persuade China to open up its economy . But most do not agree with the administration's assertion that the trade war would have no negative effect on US companies.

"It is absolutely crazy to suggest that it is free for the United States," said Rufus Yerxa, chairman of the National Trade Council, which represents major US exporters.

Many studies have shown that US consumers bear a large part of the cost of tariffs. Studies by the Tax Foundation in Washington and the Pennsylvania Penn Wharton budget model have shown that tariffs represent a significant increase in taxes on Americans by increasing the prices of goods. Damage is concentrated, as a percentage of income, among the lowest wages, which devote a larger share of their wages to imports than the upper middle class and the rich.

The administration has gradually increased the amount of Chinese goods subject to customs duties over the past year, rising from an initial $ 34 billion to a total of $ 250 billion, and has increased the duty rate applied to these products.

However, the monthly rate of revenue collection from customs duties has not increased this year. This is because the United States imports fewer Chinese products than it did a year ago, canceling the higher tariffs on a larger share of Chinese products.

This decline appears to be the product of a general slowdown in trade – which has contributed to the weakening of US manufacturers' exports – and the transfer of supply chains to other countries. Commerce data shows that imports from Vietnam have increased by more than 30 percent this year compared to a year ago.

Tariff revenues would likely increase if Trump threatened to impose tariffs on almost all Chinese products.

The administration has tried to put the levers of government at the service of hosting and support to US companies. On Monday, Trump signed a decree demanding that 95 percent of steel and iron entering projects funded by federal contracts be finally US-made, up from 50 percent.

This order is the latest in a series of President's proclamations aimed at encouraging more purchases of US goods. An order in January encouraged companies to use iron, steel, aluminum, cement and other US products wherever possible, without setting a binding target.

John Ferriola, General Manager of Nucor, a steel company in North Carolina, applauded the move. "We think it's good for our country and that it's certainly good for the industry, I can not deny it," he said.

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