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But the poll also reveals strengths and weaknesses for these two candidates and several other Democratic candidates.
For Biden, it's mostly a positive image. The new poll shows that it is favorably shared by 81% of people likely to be Democratic caucuses. He has the highest support on 20 possible Democrat candidates – 27% have chosen it as their first choice. But there is a big difference between 27% and 81%. Among the other candidates, this very good index of favorability (of which Biden is exceptionally high) could mean a higher number that would support it in the primary. This could be due to several reasons, including the fact that Biden has not yet declared his candidacy for the presidency.
But there is another good news for the former vice president in the poll: 64% of likely members of the Democratic caucus said that Mr Biden had more experience than any other candidate and that he wished that he participated in the race. Only three in ten said that the time he had as a candidate had run out and that he had to stay out.
Biden's political views are "pretty good" for most caucus clients (70%), with fewer being too liberal (6%) or conservative (14%). However, Biden was the first choice for those who presented themselves as moderate or conservative Democrats, but not among those who said they were Liberals, who had chosen Sanders as their first choice.
Sanders
Things are generally positive for the Vermont senator, although he is lagging behind Biden in many ways, and the Democratic caucus members have their own concerns about him. It has a very high index of favorability (71% saw it positively) relatively similar to the December poll in Iowa. He is the top choice of 25% of likely caucus members, up from 19% last December.
But caucus members are probably divided as to whether the views of the Socialist Democrat are too liberal (44%) or quite correct (48%), which could hurt him in the long run, as Democrats ask in which direction their party is heading.
And unlike Biden, his numbers were more evenly spread on whether he should enter the race or not. A majority (54%) said his candidacy had pushed the party in a good direction last time and that he should show up, but 43% said that the time he had was up and that he was out. he should not show up – higher than those who have Biden should stay out of the race (31%).
Senator Elizabeth Warren
Warren had 9% of the likely caucus members who said that she was their first choice for the Democratic candidate. Although much lower than Biden or Sanders, it also has a relatively high favorability rating. Nearly two-thirds have a positive opinion of the Massachusetts senator, lower than that of the other two main candidates.
But while Sanders is still doing pretty well among liberals and moderates, Warren's favorability score hits hard among moderate Democrats. Sanders and Warren have similar favorable ratings among Liberals (76% and 74% respectively), but among moderates, Sanders gets a 68% favor, while Warren drops to 54%.
Nearly a quarter of likely Iowa caucus members said Warren's political views were "too liberal", while 54% thought she was "pretty much right" ", just behind the domain leader, Biden, with this step.
Senator Kamala Harris
In the following order, 7% said Harris was their first choice for the Democratic candidate. Her favourability ratings have increased significantly since the December survey, probably because of the increased number of people knowing who she is after her campaign announcement in late January. Fifty-eight percent of likely Democratic caucus members had a favorable view of the senator, compared to 49% in the last election.
Harris does not have a ton of obvious weaknesses in the poll, except that even though his preferences are increasing, his election numbers have remained relatively stable. Nearly half said their political views were "pretty good" and 12% said they were "too liberal".
Former US Representative, Beto O 'Rourke
Finally, the poll shows a cooling around O & # 39; Rourke. Five percent of likely Iowa caucus members said it was their first choice for the Democratic candidate and 6% for their second choice. Together, it is the first or second choice of 11%, against 23% in December. Since December had just taken place after losing the Texas Senate election, it seemed to have taken a prominent place in the minds of many people, an intensity that has since declined.
His favorable rating has remained stable (52% now, 53% in December), but again, the excitement for O 'Rourke is lagging behind. While in December, 28% said they had a very positive opinion of him, this proportion has risen to 19% now.
The other Democrats who announced the news were not very high-ranking, like Senator Cory Booker (3% having stated that he was their first choice), Senator Amy Klobuchar (3%) . ) and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (0%).
The CNN / Des Moines Register / Mediacom survey was conducted by Selzer & Co. from March 3 to 6, 2019 on a random sample of 401 caucus Democrats likely to be reached on landlines or mobile phones by a live interviewer. The results for the sample of likely caucus visitors have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, it is greater for the subgroups.
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