CNN survey: a rising share expected Trump to win in 2020



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According to the new survey, 54% of respondents believe that Trump will win the 2020 elections, 41% think he will lose. Americans are a bit more likely to say that Trump will win now than they did, Barack Obama would win a second term in May 2011, according to a poll conducted just after the death of Osama bin Laden (50% thought that Obama would win in this poll). The new figures on Trump are a reversal from December, when a slim majority of 51% said they thought Trump would lose his bid for reelection.

The gap during this period mainly concerns those who disapprove of Trump's treatment of the presidency. In December, 81% of the group said they thought the president was going to lose, which has now dropped to 67%. At the same time, the share that approves the president and thinks he's going to win has remained steady (88% now versus 85% in December).

The disgust of these reprobates to Trump is palpable in the poll. When asked to explain in their own words why they dislike Trump, Trump's behavior is a central reason. The most frequently cited responses are lying (13%), racism (11%), incompetence (11%) and non-leadership (7%). Immigration, named by 7%, is the only specific problem that deserves to be mentioned by 5% or more.

Those who approve of how Trump manages his work as president focus instead on his accomplishments and problems. About one-quarter (26%) of respondents cite the economy as the main reason for their support, 12% say it's because it's kept its promises, 9% say it's not the same. it does more or better than other presidents, 8% mention an improvement in the unemployment rate. and 5% indicate its policies at the border.

The economy remains the bright spot of Trump's presidency in the public eye. Globally, 7 out of 10 say that the economy is doing well, about as in March, and 52% say they approve the economic management of Trump, down 4 points from April. This poll marks a new high in the Trump presidency for the group of people who feel the economy is doing "very well", 28% say so, and even if it's not much more than the 26% that the estimated in March, it's the best brand since 2000.

The second best Trump endorsement rating in the survey is a measure related to the economy: helping the middle class. On this point, 44% approve the president, 49% disapprove. Although still negative, this is an improvement over CNN's latest survey on this issue in August of the first year of its presidency, approved by 39% of those surveyed.

Foreign trade deserves less praise from the president, 41% declaring to approve and 47% to disapprove. The poll was in the field when the president threatened new tariffs on imports from Mexico in response to the illegal crossing of the border from there. Although these figures do not differ significantly from the President's approval ratings on this topic in December, his approval rating for foreign trade increased by 9 points during this period among a core group: Whites without a university degree.

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With regard to immigration, Americans also attribute to the president an approval rate of 41%, with a higher rate of disapproval (54%) than he gets for his trade policies .

In acting foreign policy, the president's criticism is also largely negative. With regard to North Korea, the opinion of Americans has gone from positive (48% approved to 40% disapproved) to negative (41% approved and 45% disagreed) over the last year. Disapproval overrides the approval for handling the situation with Iran, 43% to 32%. And more to disapprove (48%) than to approve (42%) his management of the role of Commander-in-Chief.

Nevertheless, Americans' perceptions of the threat posed by Iran and North Korea have declined over the last year. In a survey conducted in May 2018, 47 percent of respondents said North Korea was "a very serious threat to the United States." At present, only 34% of respondents think the same thing, the lowest number recorded by CNN since 2015. This poll found that 40% considered Iran as a very serious threat. This figure dropped to 28% in the new poll, the smallest share ever published in CNN polls dating back to 2000.

In both cases, the decreases mainly concern Republicans. Last May, 50 percent of Republicans viewed North Korea as a very serious threat, up from 30 percent now. There were smaller decreases during the same period for self-employed (13 points) and Democrats (6 points). Similarly, the share that qualifies Iran as a very serious threat dropped by 23 points among Republicans, by 3 points among independents and by 13 among Democrats.

The share of Republicans who consider Russia as a very serious threat has also fallen over the last year, from 28% in 2018 to 20% now. Among the independents, the decline is 5 points and nearly half of the Democrats consider Russia as an extremely serious threat (48%), about the same as the 46% who said it last year.

The CNN survey was conducted by the SSRS from May 28-31 on a random national sample of 1,006 adults reached by a live interviewer, by phone or cell phone. The results for the full sample have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. It is bigger for the subgroups.

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