CNN survey: Biden continues to lead overcrowded democratic battlefield

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This change comes as more and more potential voters of the Democratic primary declare to have decided who to support (44% say, up 8 points since April), even before the top 20 candidates are preparing for the first debates officials of this cycle. , scheduled for later this month.

The survey revealed that 32% of respondents were in favor of Biden, compared to 39% who supported him in an April poll by CNN. This survey was conducted in the days immediately following Biden's official entry into the race. Since then, the former vice president has focused on protecting his early benefits, making fewer appearances in public than his other candidates, even as they start to attack him.

But none of the other candidates has seen any significant gains in the last month. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders remains in second place with 18%, followed by California Senator Kamala Harris with 8%, 7% for Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and 5% for South Bend, Indiana. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Beto O. Rourke, Texas Congressman. New Jersey Senator Cory Booker receives support of 3%, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar at 2% each. The remaining 14 candidates tested in the ballot landed at 1% or less.

The poll suggests that Biden and Sanders reap the benefits of being better known by blocking their supporters early. Among those who say they made a decision, Biden's support rises to 43%, Sanders to 29%.

Bernie Sanders mocks Biden for not attending the California Democratic Convention

Both also have extremely positive favorability ratings among potential Democratic voters. About three quarters say they have a positive opinion of everyone (77% for Biden and 76% for Sanders), far ahead of their closest competitors for the nomination (Harris is considered positive by 52% of voters of democratic tendency, Warren 63% ).

However, among all Americans, Biden behaves better than Sanders. The former Delaware senator gets a distinctly positive favorability rating nationally (46% favorable to 38% unfavorable). Opinions on Sanders are almost equally divided and weigh only two points (46% favorable to 44% unfavorable).

Favorability figures for three other major competitors are also lagging behind Biden's ratings. Buttigieg remains virtually unknown nationally (59% have no opinion or have not heard about it), while Harris and Warren each get more negative reviews than positive reviews.

The 2016 presidential election was the first in the modern polling era to present two candidates having obtained a negative net favorability rating. Post-polling polls showed that President Donald Trump was able to capitalize on Clinton's negative numbers by winning a larger share of voters with a negative opinion of both.

With the exception of Biden and Buttigieg, each of the six Democratic candidates tested in the poll is considered more negatively by Republicans than Democrats. The mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio, is particularly distraught: 49% of Republicans see it in a negative way while only 18% of Democrats see it in a positive way. Among the independents, Biden is the only tested candidate who has a positive balance sheet.

Joe Biden discusses with progressives as he passes the Democratic Convention of California

Among the potential primary Democratic voters, there are still many basic demographic divisions that have so far defined the contest. Independents, younger voters and Liberal voters continue to support Sanders more easily than self-identifying Democrats, older voters and those who are more moderate or conservative.

The breed gap seems to have eased compared to the April survey: Biden leads in both groups, but his support is about the same for whites and non-whites. Democratic voters with a university degree are more likely to consider candidates other than Biden and Sanders. And there is still no significant difference between the men and women they support at this stage.

And as 2020 approaches with an unprecedented number of people, Democratic trend voters are more likely to consider this long list of choices as an asset (53%) than as a bad thing (45%) for the left.

Regardless of who finishes the Democratic vote in 2020, most voters will say that it is a better approach for this candidate to rally Democrats around his political stances (81% say so) rather than dissatisfaction with Trump (15% say so).

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet strikes 1% in this poll, his third poll of this cycle among those that the DNC uses to evaluate the qualification for future debates, making it the 20th candidate to achieve these standards. Candidates tested in this survey who have not yet reached the threshold include Montana Governor Steve Bullock (he has reached 1% in two polls so far), Miramar, Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam (1% in a poll) and Massachusetts Rep. Seth. Moulton (did not reach 1% in any of the polls). If one of these candidates reaches at least 1% of eligible votes by the deadline, the decision-makers will determine the 20 candidates who will participate in the debate phase.

The CNN survey was conducted by the SSRS from May 28-31 on a random national sample of 1,006 adults reached by a live interviewer, by phone or cell phone. The results for the full sample have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. For the subsample of 412 democrats and independents with a democratic tendency who are registered to vote, this is 6.0 points.

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