CO2 emissions to reach record levels in 2023, according to IEA

According to the International Energy Agency, only a small portion of government stimulus spending in response to the Covid-19 pandemic has been allocated to clean energy measures, with the Paris-based organization predicting emissions of carbon dioxide will reach record levels in 2023.

Released Tuesday, the IEA analysis notes that in the second quarter of this year, governments around the world had set aside around $ 380 billion for “sustainable energy stimulus”. This represents about 2% of the recovery expenditure, he said.

In a statement released alongside its analysis, the IEA painted a clear picture of how much work needs to be done to meet climate-related goals.

“The sums of money, both public and private, mobilized around the world by stimulus packages are well below what is needed to achieve international climate goals,” he said.

These deficits have been “particularly pronounced in emerging and developing economies, many of which face particular financing challenges,” he added.

Looking ahead, the Paris-based organization estimated that, under current spending plans, the planet’s carbon dioxide emissions would be on track to hit record levels in 2023 and would continue to grow over the course of the year. of the following years. There was, according to his analysis, “no clear peak in sight”.

Commenting on the results, Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, said: “Since the Covid-19 crisis erupted, many governments may have spoken about the importance of building back better for a cleaner future , but a lot of them haven’t put their money where their mouth is yet. “

“Despite increased climate ambitions, the amount of economic stimulus funds devoted to clean energy is only a small fraction of the total,” he added.

The IEA’s analysis and projections are based on its Sustainable Recovery Tracker, which launched on Tuesday and “monitors government spending allocated to sustainable recoveries.”

The tracker takes this information and then uses it to estimate “to what extent this spending stimulates global investment in clean energy and to what extent this affects the trajectory of global CO2 emissions”.

For his part, Birol said governments must “rapidly increase spending and policy measures to meet the commitments they made in Paris in 2015 – including the vital provision of finance by advanced economies to the developing world.

“But then they must go even further,” he added, “by taking the investment and deployment of clean energy to much higher levels beyond the recovery period in order to put the world on. the path to net zero emissions by 2050, which is narrow but still achievable – if we act now. “

Birol’s reference to the Paris Agreement is notable but not surprising. The shadow of the deal, which aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels,” hangs over discussions over the net zero goals.

Reducing man-made carbon dioxide emissions to zero by 2050 is seen as crucial to achieving the 1.5 degree Celsius target.

The new findings from the IEA come after it said the planet’s electricity demand was forecast to rebound strongly this year and next after falling by around 1% in 2020.

Released last week, its electricity market report projects global demand for electricity to grow nearly 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, as economies around the world seek to recover from the effects. of the pandemic.

The report notes that although the production of electricity from renewable energies “continues to grow strongly”, it cannot meet the growing demand.

Renewable energies should, according to the intergovernmental organization, “be able to serve only about half of the expected growth in global demand in 2021 and 2022”.

At the other end of the spectrum, electricity production from fossil fuels was expected to “cover 45% of additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022”.

Indeed, the reality on the ground shows how the achievement of climate-related objectives will be a major challenge in the years to come.

Energy companies are always discovering new oil deposits, for example, while in countries like the United States, fossil fuels continue to play an important role in the production of electricity.

Globally, IEA research released last week expects coal-fired power generation to increase “by nearly 5% in 2021 and a further 3% in 2022, after declining by 4.6% in 2020 “.

“As a result, coal-fired power generation is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2021 and reach a record high in 2022,” he adds.