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INVOICES, Mont. – US demand for coal for power generation will continue to decline in the coming months, federal officials said Thursday, despite efforts by the Trump administration to support the struggling industry.
Renewable sources of energy, including wind, solar and hydro, are expected to fill much of the void left by the decline in coal, according to the Energy Information Administration.
This is especially true in Western states, where renewable energy will provide nearly a quarter of electricity to households and businesses during the peak summer season, the agency said in its projections.
Natural gas is expected to remain the fuel of choice for power generation, with an estimated market share of 40% of US markets this summer.
Under President Donald Trump, officials have sought to ease regulation of coal-fired power plants and mining restrictions. But after a brief increase in production in the year after Trump took office, almost all states that currently operate coal mines are experiencing a decline in production.
Wyoming, Kentucky and Texas experienced the largest declines since the beginning of the year. Of the top 10 coal states, only Montana experienced a slight increase in the volume of coal mined in 2019.
The share of coal in electricity production is expected to reach 25% this summer. This represents a decline of about half in the last decade and follows a wave of utility decommissioning by coal utilities looking for cheaper and cleaner alternatives.
"This decline is ruthless," said Seth Feaster, head of the coal sector for the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. The Ohio-based group is advocating for a transition to more sustainable sources of energy.
"The question is how much of it can go down," added Feaster. "Coal is really facing enormous challenges in terms of natural gas competition from fracking and the continued decline in renewable energy prices."
A spokesman for the coal mining trade group said the government's forecast was "a reminder of how quickly we lose balance" on the country's electricity grid.
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"We are moving from a reliable base generation, supporting network reliability, to alternative solutions," said National Mining Association spokesman Conor Bernstein. He added that electricity market operators do not recognize the value of "energy diversity" in their decisions on the management of the grid.
The Trump administration wants to spend half a billion dollars next year on research and development on fossil fuels, including promoting a new generation of coal-fired power plants, said US Secretary of Energy Rick Perry. testimony before a subcommittee of the House of Representatives. Perry said the goal was "to increase the resilience and reliability" of the power grid.
Meanwhile, the decommissioning of factories continues to accumulate, including in the heart of the coal country.
PacifiCorps announced in late April that a Wyoming coal plant and part of another could be decommissioned by 2022 as the company is trying to cut costs for its customers. The Oregon – based electricity company plans to dramatically increase the amount of electricity generated by wind turbines and solar farms.
Beyond the changes in the number and types of power plants are short-term price considerations, said analyst Stacy Macintyre of the Energy Information Administration. Utilities this summer will pay about 3% more for coal and 12% less for natural gas compared to last year, she said.
Coal demand will continue to decline in 2020, according to the agency.
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Matthew Brown of the Associated Press wrote this story.
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