College Football Bowls Projections: Iowa Heads Into Playoffs With Loss To Oregon; Cincinnati still outside

Cincinnati’s No.7 24-13 win over No.9 Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana on Saturday could be the trigger for a historic event – the first team in the Group of Five to advance to the football playoffs university. First, the Bearcats will need to end the season with a perfect 13-0 record.

The only other time a Group-Five team had held that position came in 2016, when Houston opened the campaign in 15th place with home games scheduled against Oklahoma’s No.3 preseason and No.19. Louisville. A 13-0 season for the Cougars would have deserved serious discussions for the CFP. Houston won the big two non-conference games but suffered three conference losses, so we never got to know how the CFP selection committee would have viewed them.

If Cincinnati can finish the job, there are scenarios that could put the Bearcats into the playoffs. In short, the committee must be in a situation where there is no other viable candidate for fourth place. There is no guarantee that Cincinnati would be selected over a non-champion to an SEC or Big Ten loss. Even a two-losing SEC team with losses against Alabama and Georgia could be a contender for Cincinnati. The Bearcats should be favored over any other major conference team, champion or otherwise, with at least one loss.

Cincinnati, however, got some much-needed help on Saturday when the Oregon No.3 self-destructs late at Stanford, losing 31-24 in overtime. The Pac-12 would now need a chaos scenario to get back into playoff contention.

Oklahoma continues to play with fire, but so far it has not been burned. The No.4 Sooners came out of Kansas State with a 37-31 victory. Their four wins against FBS teams were seven points or less. Oklahoma face Texas next week as they drop to fourth in the playoffs despite winning and losing to Oregon.

The planned new No.3 seed is Iowa. The Hawkeyes were the Big Ten’s best team in the first five weeks of the season. Granted, no other Big Ten West team has come close to Iowa’s quality. The Hawkeyes destroyed Maryland 51-14 on the highway Friday night.

Alabama’s No.1 and Georgia’s No.2 scored dominant victories over No.12 Ole Miss and No.8 Arkansas, respectively, to remain the expected top two seeds of the CFP. However, the Crimson Tide moved on to the Orange Bowl from its previous screening at the Cotton Bowl.

Let’s take a look at the new CFP projection. An updated list of bowl showings will be available Sunday afternoon.

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