The political storm that reveals Iván Duque

The climate management experts, who predict their effects and causes, consider the "perfect storm" equation to be a combination of factors such as surface heat, cold in height, humidity and high winds. and bad weather. depressions. The result is chaos, a natural phenomenon difficult to face. That's what happens to the president Iván Duque when he just finished 111 days of government.

Student protests, bad relations with Congress and the Democratic Center, and a tax reform that sparked the country's rejection were added to allow the president to face the first big test for his government.

The announcement this month that 80% of the family basket products would be taxed VAT, was the breaking point between the president Iván Duque and public opinion.

His popularity dropped during the first 100 days. According to the Invamer survey, this percentage increased from 53.8% to 27.2%, a result influenced by the Finance Act presented by the Minister of Finance, Alberto Carrasquilla.

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The proposal aimed to fill the $ 14 billion deficit in the national budget needed for social programs. Although the goal is noble, the government has been criticized by guilds, congressmen, citizens and the center of the democratic center. We therefore rejected the proposal and prepared a new formula to be presented this week.

Beyond the recognition that the government listened to the sectors and decided to redraft the proposal, this means for some badysts a decline or a reflection of the lack of vigor.

This point, added to the student strike, has problems for the government. Despite the conclusion of an agreement with the rectors of public universities to allocate an additional $ 3.2 billion to the budget each year, the students continue a strike that has now lasted for seven weeks and threatens to lose the semester university. They are asking for $ 500 billion to cover the deficit, Duke said repeatedly: "There is no money left". And the steps continue.

For Jaime Alberto Carrión, a law professor at the National University, it is normal that in the beginning of a government budget difficulties arise. "The budget of a third-party development plan is being implemented and it is badumed that the previous owner should have been effective in the execution.In the case of Colombia, the situation is aggravated by the budget deficit, "Carrión said, adding that in Duke's remoteness from Congress, from the political clbad and from the social sectors, the problem of governability arose.

Eduardo Enríquez Mayasenator of the Conservative Party (declared a coalition government with lukewarm support), said that "among the causes that have hindered Duque's objectives, there is the fact that Santos has made overflowing, inherited commitments, all of which relate to public. "

The representative in the House of the Democratic Pole Jorge Gómez He felt that the decline in popularity "is due to the fact that the elections were not articulated around proposals, but to the polarization of the Ubribism claiming that we would be like Venezuela and to petrism claiming that it would be the paramilitary area, that's why his image also collapses ".

The government coalition is made up of five parties: conservative, democratic center, Partido de la U, Colombia Justa y Mira. Radical change and liberals have declared themselves independent. Alianza Verde, Polo Democrático, Decentes, Farc, Colombia, Humana and But are opposed.

Political reform was approved in the Senate but articles such as the abolition of the National Electoral Council were not accepted. On the contrary, they tried to put the monico de transfuguismo, whose author is the senator Barriers Roy, expert in these maneuvers.

The worst fate has been the reform of justice. During his time in the Senate, an extreme change was made and it turned out to be a slow document with few initiatives generating positive changes in the industry. The elimination of the High Council of the Judiciary, the establishment of the Aforados Court, responsible for trying criminal cases of senior officials, and the elimination of regional control were considered.

A similar path has 15 projects anti-corruption, only five current advances.

For Nicolás Pérez, Senator of the Democratic Center, Duque proposes to change the way of doing politics. "He said his relationship would not be with jam, which slows down the processes and the reforms are not going as planned by the government.It's the cost of making a change that we will thank in the medium term "said Perez.

Luis Trejos, political scientist at the Universidad del Norte, said the opposite. "President Duque is overwhelmed by his political inexperience, which translates into his inability to create congressional majorities that allow him to deal with the legislative agenda that supports his government's plan.Have a conciliatory and hate-free speech, the most radical sectors from his party may perceive him as lukewarm, as a traitor.In this sense, it must be understood that he is the president of Colombia, but not the head of his party, where he dictated the last word. Álvaro Uribe Vélez"

With respect to the relationship between the executive and Congress, Senator Maya has a different theory. According to him, the House of Representatives and the Senate were renewed more than 50% and the new members of Congress presented constitutional reforms. "This has an impact on political relations because it has not been possible to evacuate, in my opinion, 10% of the initiatives." And it went further. "In the First Senate Committee, 29 constitutional reform projects are underway, with a total of 97. The other commissions must have more than 400 projects, so the government's initiatives have not materialized. "said the senator.

Congress members and experts have indicated a lack of leadership in some portfolios. According to debates on justice in debates on reform, the minister Gloria Maria Borrero it failed to coordinate with the benches and, for this reason, 14 articles, at the initiative of the government in the reform, sank in plenary.

Alberto CarrasquillaThe Minister of Finance, who won the motion of censure against him, was not strengthened and showed the failure of the law of financing. Little has explored the proposal, sent to some of his deputy ministers, why Duke charged the political cost.

The Minister of the Interior, Nancy Patricia Gutiérrez, It also has not reached the harmony between the executive and the benches. Guillermo BoteroMinister of Defense, has been the most erratic, with controversial statements about protests. In addition, it still does not give conclusive results and, as EL COLOMBIANO could be in a territory bordering Ecuador, the public force is missing in the area of ​​influence of Alias ​​Guacho, the most feared dissident of the FARC.

In the middle of this storm, the former president Álvaro Uribe Vélez launched the lifeguard. Although the beginning of the mandate was mixed, the fall of the polls of the president has alerted the democratic center and at its height, which announced this week the search for solutions for the law of financing, the union of his party around government and conversations with other parties to form a coalition. Is Uribe the rudder that Duque wants to maneuver in the waters? The facts, for the moment, indicate that yes.