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The forecasts of the experts say everything. The economy is expected to grow above 3% next year, up from 2.7% or 2.8% in 2014.
Although the rebound is not significant, in the worst case, the performance of productive activity in 2019 would be equal to that of the year about to end. However, none of the badysts consulted by this newspaper predicts growth of less than 3% by the end of the second decade of this century.
Despite the above, the optimism is not complete. In fact, there are good reasons to believe that the country could have complications in 2019.
The biggest mole could come from the entry into force of the finance law which, as in 2016 – with the increase in VAT from 16% to 19% – has resulted in a decline in household spending. Now everything will depend on what the bill means, which is still waiting in Congress.
(Read: "The Colombian economy will consolidate in 2019 and grow by at least 3.5%")
Another factor of uncertainty would be that caused by the effect of the "El Niño" phenomenon, which, according to meteorological authorities, will be recorded in the first quarter of next year.
Similarly atand the uncertainty about the direction of international oil prices, because this year, when it was said that they could go back to $ 100 a barrel, there was a gap that now reached 60, $ 21, but barely a month ago. the 80 dollars.
In fact, the prospects of the government, the Bank of the Republic and various study centers and international entities leave the economy for next year.
(Read: GDP in December would increase less than expected)
The government estimates that GDP would increase by 3.4 percent, in line with this year's medium-term financial framework, but Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla and President Ivan Duque said their revival plan would country's economy to grow at a rate of 4%. In addition, the director of the Bank of the Republic, Juan José Echavarría, maintains its stable forecast for 2019, for which it plans an expansion of 3.5%.
(Read: Colombian economy: imports continue to increase)
For its part, Sergio Clavijo, president of the Anif Research Center, said that in 2019, GDP would increase by 3.3%, while Fedesarrollo would be more optimistic. The center of studies, whose newly appointed director is Luis Fernando Mejía, said in his latest Economic Outlook that the product of 2019 would increase to 3.5%, that is to say in the same line as the Issuer and very close to those projected by the Fund. International Monetary Fund (IMF). The latter is the one who has the best vision for Colombia next year, since according to his concept, the economy would grow by 3.6%.
The sectoral badysis indicates that the industry would maintain the current level of growth, which oscillates between 2.5 and 3.5% per month. On the other hand, trade would be closer to 3.5% to 4.5%. Pedro Marún Meyer, president of the National Federation of Merchants (Fenalco), says that, by definition, entrepreneurs in the sector are optimistic. "There are valid reasons to be, with regard to the progress of the economy and business next year," he said.
WELL CONSTRUCTION
The construction sector, which is the key to the national GDP, would increase by 3.1% in 2019. "The new conditions allow a gradual recovery in 2019," said the president of the Colombian Chamber of Construction (Camacol), Sandra Forero, who added that "There is a framework of positive expectations vis-à-vis the economy and, in this sense, the treatment of monetary policy has been very precise in the control of inflation."
Now, on the infrastructure side, next year could be total reactivation. In the case of 4G routes, some projects would begin to unlock their contracts and, according to government expectations, 70% of highways could be subject to financial closure in the first half of the year. year. Juan Martín Caicedo Ferrer, president of the Colombian Chamber of Infrastructure (CCI), the other year "will boost investment flows" and the work should also show signs of improvement through the formalization of more fences financial. "
The executive adds that another of the "favorable expectations" is that in 2019 progress will be made in the priority works of the Bogotá – Buenaventura and Bogotá – Costa Caribe trade corridors.
TOURISM, MODERATE
The expectations of the tourism sector for 2019 are moderate. Gustavo Toro, president of Cotelco, expects the occupation to increase by two percentage points by the end of 2019, compared to 2018, to reach an average of 58%. "We believe that the construction of hotels will lose dynamism, which will gradually fill the vacant rooms," Toro said. For her part, Paula Cortés, president of Anato, a guild of travel agencies, said that new airlines would come to operate in the country, which would help to strengthen the emissive and receptive tourism. He estimates that the sector should grow between 6% and 8%.
MORE OUTDOOR SALES
Trade Minister José Manuel Restrepo said that "in 2019, exports would be around US $ 46,000 million, which would mean an increase of nearly 9% compared to 2018. We are expecting around 33%. % of these exports are non-extractive energy goods, which would exceed 1% compared to the previous year.We also have a positive outlook for services, which we expect growth of more than 4%, to reach 9,000 million US dollars. These results would project exports of non – mining goods and services – energy in the order of US $ 25,000 million, which would imply growth of more than 2% compared to 2018.
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