[ad_1]
Due to the volatility of oil prices, market watchers are waiting for the G20 meeting held in Argentina on November 30 and the OPEC + meeting (OPEC members and non-member allies) to discuss the issue. and December 7th. to learn more clues.
Although the heads of state of the world's three largest oil producers (the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia) attend the G20 summit, oil prices are unlikely to figure high. at the top of the list of bilateral talks. give yourself The United States has very little to say or do on this subject that could influence the market. In addition to using his Twitter account to push down oil prices, US President Donald Trump can not control or even influence oil production in the United States. The US oil industry is made up of a wide range of producers (large and small) who decide on production based on their own financial interests. Trump could or would not do much to dissuade them from maintaining their production levels.
Some rumors have suggested that Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin may be talking about oil production at the G20 meeting, but market watchers should not expect negotiations or talks. serious statements. The real debate that could have an impact on the market will take place between the oil ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia and the rest of OPEC, since they are the ones who will lay the groundwork for meetings between members and non-OPEC members. next week.
The price of US oil is below $ 50 for the first time in more than a year on Thursday, after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared himself comfortable with current oil prices.
The move calls into question the plans – which are currently being discussed between member producers and non-OPEC producers – to re-establish country-by-country agreed production allocations and implemented there. is two years old. At present, some OPEC countries and other non-OPEC countries are producing more than these allowances to offset the shortage of supplies from Venezuela and the United States. 39; Iran. Saudi Arabia, in particular, produced between 11.1 and 11.3 million barrels of oil a day in November, more than one million barrels a day more than its allocation of 10, 06 million barrels a day, according to S & P Global. Platts. Russian Petroleum Minister Alexander Novak had previously said that Russia was not interested in reducing its production at the moment, although this occurred before it fell to 60 dollars a barrel. Although Putin said that Russia was satisfied with the price of oil at $ 60 a barrel, as was also the case when oil was at $ 70 a barrel, Novak is already discussing a reduction in production with major Russian oil companies. . They are likely to agree to return to the production levels indicated in Russia's previous mission. In any case, oil production in Russia is decreasing anyway during the winter months. Accepting to reduce this production suits them.
Saudi Arabia claimed that it was willing to reduce production to "stabilize" the market in 2019, but that it did not intend to badume itself this reduction. This means that Russia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates must commit to reducing their production in January. Iraq will be the biggest challenge for these countries because it has always exceeded the allocated quota. Iran, which opposed the decision of some countries to increase their allocations at the last OPEC meeting, is probably not opposed to the plan to return to the previous equilibrium. Iran's oil output declined in October, as did Iranian exports. The sanctions imposed by the United States certainly guarantee a greater decrease in exports. Data from TankerTrackers.com on Iranian exports for the first 21 days of November confirm this.
If this agreement is reached and the major producers agree, it could reduce oil production by more than 1.55 million barrels a day. Markets would interpret this as a good sign and prices could start to rise. Who would not want anything, that 's Trump, although it' s unlikely that he could do anything but express his frustration. Conversely, if oil prices rise again, even if they do not exceed $ 10 a barrel, shale oil producers in the United States will be very happy.
[ad_2]
Source link
