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Colombians closed the year 2018 with a cost of living change of 3.18%, compared to 4.09% recorded in December 2017.
This was revealed by the director of the Danish, Juan Daniel Oviedo, at the time who established thatEducation, housing and transportation figures increased during the year, which is below badysts' forecasts (3.20% on average).
(This is how inflation closed in Colombia in 2018).
Of the 9 spending groups included in this measure, four were above the total indicator. These are: education (6.38%), health (4.33%), housing (4.13%) and transportation (3.73%). At the same time, food inflation was 2.43% and entertainment was -1.16%.
Dane's well-known results show that inflation dropped to the peak reached in July 2016, while it was at the limit of 9%.
Today, this indicator is not only in the target range, but is also in the lower part of the target range, that is with only 18 points on 3% of the target, which gives think that this year this level would be affected. .
Analysts believe that it is not so easy, for which the wake up of 2019 has brought new pressures and inflationary shocks that will eliminate the possibility of inflation at half the target range.
Factors such as an intense phenomenon in children in early 2019, changes in tax rules, The increase in wages beyond 4%, as well as a larger depreciation of the peso, will cause inflation to change the downward trend seen since mid-2016 and to be sure. 39, accentuate a little more during the last year.
In the center of economic studies, Anif says that "inflation expectations for 2019 have continued to climb to around 3.5%".
(How much rent increases in 2019?).
Economists in the Bancolombia group, for their part, warn that this will end this year at 3.6%, if the impact of expected shocks is taken into account, although the respect of the target range is not compromised.
Other badysts, such as those from Corficolombiana, are less optimistic and estimate that inflation will close the year at 3.8%, which is close to the ceiling of the target range.
THE IMPACT OF THE CHILD
This forecast is explained by the fact that the occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon will put upward pressure on food and electricity prices in the first half of the year, although its intensity is lower than in 2015, according to the report. . international measures, which would make its effect on prices a little more moderate.
In Bancolombia, they also believe that the climate will not put pressure on inflation, as long as the strength and duration of the child will not be greater than expected, because otherwise they believe it would give a boost additional to their points of view. inflation forecast of 3.4% for 2019.
NEW FEES
According to them, the changes introduced by the 2018 Act of 1983 or the financing, such as the change in the VAT system applied to beer and non-alcoholic beverages, generated higher expectations for inflation, could affect price formation in the country. a sixth part of the expected collection would come from this modification.
"These items in the basket will be taxed at a general rate of 19% at all stages of the production process and as a result, consumer prices could rise, taking into account that retail traders would be subject to this tax" , consider badysts Bancolombia.
WEIGHT DEPRECIATION
A third factor likely to drive up inflation during the current year is the strengthening of the dollar, via tradable goods, that is to say, those subject to change. An export or an import.
"We think the impact on total inflation would be limited because of the credibility that agents have of the monetary authority," they say to Corficolombiana.
However, other badysts say this is a significant risk that is becoming increasingly achievable.
"If there were situations of greater stress at the global level, generating greater pressure on the local currency, the inflationary effect would be greater.With a depreciation of 9% (of the peso), this impulse inflation would reach 21 basis points (on the projection), and if the average change increases to 11%, it would rise to 34 basis points ", Bancolombia's economists warn.
INCREASE IN SALARY
Analysts see this year another major risk of inflation related to the increase in the minimum wage (6%) reached by consensus in mid-December.
For Anif, a wage increase of over 4% "is very risky and will lead to greater pressure on inflationary costs".
As we recall, the minimum wage adjustment is the highest of this century because it is estimated at real growth of 2.98%, if we take into account the Inflation for low incomes in 2018 (with which is estimated at this real increase) closed at 3.02%, which would affect pricing in the future.
"We see that there is a small inflationary risk, but that it would have permanent effects on prices in 2019. In particular, these effects would mainly affect food and non-tradable indices. , affected by the evolution of the prices of meals without meals of the household and the rate of the domestic services ", Bancolombia badysts need.
But just as there are things that will increase, there are also factors that will have an opposite effect on the cost of living for Colombians this year.
According to economists of the Bolívar group, with the update of the CPI basket that is pushing the Danish, which will rise from 198 articles to 443, "there could be a downward pressure as food reduces their weight the index, which is reasonable with the increase in the level of income of the country since the last update (2008) ".
Economics and commercial writing
THE WEATHER
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