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Bulmaro Pacheco
It will not be easy to understand at first glance the main ingredients that have been mixed to provoke what is happening politically in Mexico and Sonora, derived from the July 1 election.
tsunami "political election as it is to explain the phenomenon, perhaps for intellectual levity or excuses.
objectively explain the main events of last week leads us to admit that it It is necessary to consider many edges and a diversity of elements that have shaped the current political situation, case by case (state by state), without generalizing.
The easy and comfortable thing is to fall into simplification from reality, courtesy or go with the wave of opportunism of interpretation with the clbadic "I told them!" or the "I already knew what was going to happen!"
The Reality is that no one – but no one – has anticipated the dimensions of what happened at the national level and in the states.
In the only thing that there was coincidence and certainty, it was in the final figures of elec President of the Republic
It is therefore desirable to wait for the end of figures and opinions, as well as the treatment of information by federal and local institutions, and to design a more precise badysis. and objective. Finally, the cold and hard reality of the figures will give us more elements for a good x-ray of the moment.
There will be more than the evildoers who, from the election of last Sunday, are eager to predict the end of the current political and political system, before the overwhelming electoral victory of Morena.
For many of them it is necessary to ignore the fact that Morena is also a political party, with a newly created legal register, and who participated for the first time in the 2015 federal elections. [19659002] Morena will participate in 2017 in the governor's elections with high percentages of votes in Veracruz and in the State of Mexico.
Since then and until now, Morena, like all registered parties, has received timely funding and law prerogatives for the political activities that she has developed.
What's left of us then? The social and political malaise of the people has been against political parties, professional politicians, or against those who have appropriated them? Against the parties as such or against those who have hijacked their programs and principles? Maybe so, but most of those who voted last Sunday voted for a professional politician for the Mexican president and for a newly created political party. And go professional politician López Obrador: Candidate for the governor of his state: Tabasco; once a candidate for the head of the government of Mexico; PRI state president in his state and national leader of two different political parties (PRD and Morena); as well as three-time candidate for the presidency of the Republic
There are other ingredients of social rebellion and political unrest, not just the tsunami: the economic crisis and the effects of the The essence of January of last year; the corruption scandals of the former governors, published at every moment; suspicions of corruption at high levels of federal, state and municipal governments; the growing distance between the political clbad and the people; the rejected reform of the PRI, which was relegated by the government of President Peña Nieto, allowing them to continue to do the internal affairs of the party as if nothing had happened in 12 years of opposition; the identity crisis of PAN that broke with the departure of Margarita Zavala and the alienation of her leadership with her governors and former presidents of the Republic.
In addition, the PRD crisis, a party that has wasted tremendously with its activists joining the PAN and to which, for the time being, only its stewards and clerics need to go. install in the ranks of Morena; also the frequent and obsessive distortion of the commercialization of politics or the heritage of families or groups that, for years, have limited political and social mobility in the regions; the resounding crisis of selection and recruitment methods for candidates from all parties; local and regional cacicazgos that slowed political development.
Let us add the expansion of partisan devolution as well as the frequent practice of politics as an enterprise; the excessive interference of criminal organizations in different positions of popular election with the added burden of violence and badbadinations; the petrification of the candidacy of parents and characters recycled forever, almost all representatives of the political and economic power groups in exchange for the brake on the movement of partisan cadres; and the failure of independent candidates at all levels.
All of this, or almost everything, ended up in a crisis on July 1st.
Those who did not want to see him did not see it, and especially what encouraged the anti-system vote that caused more than 30 million votes by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the five governors, the 307 the alliance, the 68 senators, the 252 municipalities and the 18 local congresses that Morena and her Allies Also the fall of the PAN that remains with only 24 senators and 82 deputies, the PRI with 13 and 45, the PRD with 8 and 21 and the 9 gubernaturas distributed between Morena (5), PAN (3) and Movimiento Ciudadano (1)
What is a political tsunami? From the point of view of the impact, it seems, partisan fractures in municipalities and regions, but also overconfidence, lack of ideas and proposals for people and brutal ignorance of the real popular feeling , in this obsessive and unhealthy eagerness to badimilate realities through polls and polls of opinion and no contact with people.
How many hard votes of the PAN have cost Ricardo Anaya the alliance with the PRD and the Movimiento Ciudadano? Fox took 15.9 million, Calderón 15.0 Josefina Vásquez Mota 12.7 and Anaya only 12.5 million.
How much of his hard vote cost the PRI (virtues other than JA Meade) to presume each time that he had run for a non-PRI as a candidate? What would they think of this theory that ultimately failed? For example; Francisco Labastida got 13.5 million votes, Roberto Madrazo 9.3, Enrique Peña Nieto 19.2 and José Antonio Meade only 9.2. That is, 10 million fewer votes than Peña Nieto and less than Roberto Madrazo in 2006.
Who were the 2.9 million votes that the Bronco won? Who took them? Or were they thanks to the figure of an independent candidate?
The badysis of the Mexican political moment is just beginning. There will undoubtedly be greater elements of short-term judgment.
The positive: the political peace of elections and the expectation of change; a real impetus to social mobility, to rethink the difficult political stability, the peaceful conflict of power through elections, the consolidation of institutions and the tranquility post-election, which sends important signals when and unpublished In Mexico, the three losing contenders recognize their defeat and, on the same day, salute and congratulate the winning candidate. All this necessarily caused a respite for those who feared the worst and did not arrive. There will be more elements to close the electoral accounts to fully enter into the badysis of what happened in the regions.
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