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The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans will kick off Week 10 in the NFL Thursday night in what has the potential to be a defining competition for the South AFC race. Mike Vrabel’s side enter this divisional game with a 6-2 record, which is good for first place. That said, Indy is not too far behind at just 5-3 and could momentarily take the lead of the division with a victory in Nashville here. The Titans pulled off a two-game losing streak with their win over the Bears in Week 9, while Philip Rivers and company look to bounce back from their fall to the Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium.
In this space, we’ll give you all of the betting angles for this AFC South matchup, including the odds, total, and a few of our favorite player accessories. We’ll also show you how those lines have evolved throughout the week, highlighting how audiences see this game falling. Before we get to that, however, you can watch Thursday’s action.
How to watch
Dated: Thursday November 12 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
TV: Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime | Current: fuboTV (try for free)
To follow: CBS Sports app
RJ White and Will Brinson broke down the breakdown, tally, player props and DFS angles to know for Thursday night’s game on the Pick Six podcast; tune in below, and be sure to subscribe to the NFL Daily Benefits.
Colts at Titans
This line originally opened with Tennessee as the favorite, giving the Colts 2.5 points. That number broke several times on Monday, initially dropping a full point, dropping as low as Titans -1 and ended the day at Titans -1.5. He made a half point, but has since fallen to a straight pick’em Thursday morning.
This game could very well come down to how each quarterback behaves on a short rest. Looking at the story, the edge would land on Philip Rivers’ side. The Colts quarterback covered 71% of his games played on short rest, including an 8-3 ATS record on Thursday. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill is 1-5 ATS in his last six starts on a short rest. Before last Sunday’s loss to Baltimore, Rivers was on a short streak, scoring six touchdowns on a 67 completion percentage. If he can tap into that type of play against a Titans defense that ranks 23rd in terms of Pass defense efficiency, this much-vaunted Colts defense should be able to keep them in this game.
The choice: Colts
More under
That total opened at 50 but slowly dropped a point and a half since Sunday and finally landed at 48.5 by Thursday morning. The Over has a combined 9-6-1 record this season between Indianapolis and Tennessee. The Titans have been especially kind to the Over’s, sporting a regular season record of 14-3-1 with Ryan Tannehill as a starter. Both of these offenses are capable of scoring points, with the Titans averaging 29 points per game, while Indy comes in with an average of 26 points per game. The question, of course, will come down to the defensive side of the ball. The Colts have been one of the stingiest defenses in the league this year, but still allow 20 points per game. Tennessee, meanwhile, are a bit more of an intermediate unit, dropping 25.1 points per game. In the end, this game turns into enough of a back-and-forth enough for that total to pass, especially with TY Hilton healthy for the Colts.
The choice: Over 48.5
Player Accessories
Philip rivers
O / U 23.5 completions
Y / U 35.5 success attempts
O / U 264.5 passing yards
O / U 1.5 passing TDs (over -160)
Interceptions O / U 0.5 (over -130)
Rivers appears to be in a good position to hit the Over on his passing yardage total at -115. He’s hit that tally in two of his previous three games, and Tennessee is giving up the sixth-most passing yards (275) in the league at the start of Week 9. The Over on his touchdown tally Assists is pretty lucrative, considering the Titans high school has given up 19 passing scores this season, which is tied for third in the league.
Ryan tannehill
O / U 20.5 completions
Y / U 31.5 success attempts
O / U 241.5 passing yards
O / U 1.5 passing TDs (over -125)
Interceptions O / U 0.5 (over -105)
O / U 9.5 rushing yards
While the Titans may be in first place in the division, Tannehill hasn’t been as efficient as you would like, holding only a 56.79 completion percentage in his last three games. During that span, he’s gone 0-3 on his total completions for this game. Considering his recent play with the Colts’ defense allowing for the sixth lowest completion percentage in the NFL, the Under for completions makes a lot of sense. That said, Tannehill has found the end zone multiple times in all but one of his eight starts this season, so hitting the Over on his passing touchdown tally is worth a look.
Other accessories to consider
Nyheim Hines total receiving yards: over 22.5 (-110). The Colts running back has a clearly defined role as a third pass option for Philip Rivers out of the backfield. The veteran quarterback has also shown an affinity for throwing the ball to Hines this season, averaging 4.4 targets per game. In his last three games, Hines has averaged 33.7 receiving yards, so as long as the status quo remains he should have no problem passing here.
AJ Brown hit anytime (+110). Sometimes you just can’t think about it too much and just put up a warm hand. There’s arguably no hotter receiver to find the end zone right now than Brown, who has scored at least one touchdown in his previous five games. At the very least, you might as well throw something small on it to see if the streak continues.
Derrick Henry’s Race Attempts: Over 20.5 (-115). When you have a back that is so important to attacking, it would almost be considered professional foul if you didn’t give him the ball more than 20 times. Henry has surpassed that total in five of his eight games this season and while Indy is one of the best defenses in the league, the Titans are highly unlikely to stray away from their star player here.
Rodrigo Blankenship total hitting points: over 6.5 (-125). I expect Indy to come out on top in this game which means they will have a number of scoring opportunities that Blankenship could take advantage of. He is averaging nearly nine points per game this season and is expected to hit this Over with relative ease on Thursday.
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