Colts make the right choices to win a Super Bowl in the next five years, if not sooner | NFL analysis

The NFL 2019 draft has arrived and is gone, and although #DraftTwitter goes through the postpartum, there is a team we can not help but gravitate around the Indianapolis Colts. Currently playing at +150 to win the AFC South and at +1800 to win the Super Bowl, Frank Reich's team has apparently done quite well since retiring from the playoffs last year with a defeat in the Kansas City snow. That it behave to avoid the big paralyzing recruits at the beginning of the free competition period, to acquire veterans helpful to Devin Funchess and Justin Houston, passing through the full shot and Total Jets trade this weekend with the selection of the Rock Ya-Sin Rock Corner, we are optimistic about the Colts as the Dark Horse to become the next New England patriots over the next decade. We describe below some of the reasons.

The head coach and defensive coordinator

He was not their first choice, but Reich was great in first year. He raised a team that was injured after a defeat Thursday night in New England and an embarrassing defeat against the Jets in New York. out of 10 wins out of 11, including two against Houston against the Texans, their enemy of the division. As of week 7, only Kansas City and New Orleans have generated more points expected than the Colts added offensively.

Our training criterion, which takes into account the expected success of the team in each match in relation to the team's real success, was presented in a favorable light to Reich during his first season at Indy, which is quite impressive considering that they broke Andrew Luck after a defeat. in a year and he joins the Colts later than most of the main coaches can join their team because of Josh McDaniels' indecision. He was ahead of the decision in fourth-down decisions, choosing to play in an overtime match against Houston instead of a loose kick – a decision that, although correct, ultimately resulted in one of their losses in of the first leg. 1-5 start. Another year at Indy and with Luck should only strengthen Reich's stature as an up-and-coming coach in this league.

In defense, Matt Eberflus did a lot without much talent, while the Colts' defense finished the year with the ninth best EPA allowed. That's pretty impressive, but since they were ranked 20th in the allowed pass rate (as defined by allowing> 0 points added added on a game), it was clear that Eberflus was pulling substantial value of the tube by organizing turnovers (at least one per match). , including the playoffs) and avoiding allowing big games. Knowing that some of the above-mentioned dynamics (ie turnovers) are unstable from year to year and from match to match, the Colts have not relied on their defense improvement in the 2019 off season. against the new game leaders in Houston and the choice of second round, Rock Ya-Sin, and another year in the system for Darius Leonard, Jabaal Sheard and Peirre Desir, and it's a defense that, without reminding of whoever the 2002 Buccaneers, is good enough to win a championship.

The reception

We have already mentioned above the reluctance of Chris Ballard to mortgage the future on high-priced players in positions other than a quarter. This approach has given him maximum freedom to attack valuable players like Houston and Funchess when they are available, thus improving alignment at the margin, which is the key to the game. improvement once the quarterback of the franchise acquired. Ballard's also benefited from the other teams in the form of transactions. The exchange of the third overall pick with the Jets last year, a choice that offered much better utility than the well-endowed Colts in a quarter-back Jets, was a demonstration that the former Chiefs executive knew that actual value (at the time) did not fall as sharply as indicated in the traditional table.

In the 2019 draft, he had taken similar initiatives, including swapping the 26th overall pick in Washington in exchange for the 46th pick (which would then be traded to Cleveland for choices 49 and 144) and a second choice. turn in 2020, offers: by our estimates, earned them a fifth of victory on the contracts of these players (and generated more WAR than their partners about 55% of the time).

While teams like Kansas City and Chicago are trying to win the Super Bowl over the next two years, a year after the Rams did the same, the Colts seem to have a process in place to win in the long run. Unlike the Browns before them, this process can be trusted largely because the quarterback (see below) is in place to strengthen the team whenever other weaknesses present themselves.

Andrew Luck

After a tough 2015 season and a shoulder injury that prevented him from playing at all in 2017, many questions arose as to whether Andrew Luck could assume the role of franchise quarterback at Indy for coming years. After a slow start (14th in the first six weeks of the season), Luck won the second half of the end, earning the third highest score among the quarterbacks, followed by Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees. He also finished third in our WAR over behind Mahomes and Brees rankings, scoring nearly 70% of his passes, averaging more than eight meters per pass attempt while throwing the ball in just 2.46 seconds (the ninth -estest in the league) after their 1-5 start. After needing reinforcement from Jacoby Brissett to launch a hail for him during a match in Philadelphia in September, he was third in the league in assists passing (738) from Weeks 7 to 17, using the receiver TY star Hilton and Eric Ebron are perfect in the process.

Health and the shape of luck are the most important keys to Indianapolis' success, and although they pay him a lot of money compared to other players, we were able to show it's worth it for players of his caliber. No quarter contributed to a higher percentage of his team's victory than Luck's 35.2%. In the future, an offensive line anchored by left tackle Anthony Castonzo and coach of the first round of 2018 Quenton Nelson, the pressure rates that affected Luck should be low enough for that a future injury, although of unpredictable nature, is less likely than before. in the career of luck. In addition, with the addition of players like Parris Campbell (second in all college football, there is a season in the yards after the restart), Luck should be able to remove the ball from his hands even faster when the situation requires it, avoiding the corporal strokes characteristic of his early career and which contributed to injuries that forced him to miss a team in the seasons 2015, 2016 and 2017.

Conclusion

Although there are other teams more likely to make the Super Bowl in AFC than the Colts of Indianapolis (Kansas City and New England, for example) in 2019, it is difficult to do so. assert that there is a better team to compete for the tournament. next five years in Indianapolis. The treatment of the free agency by Ballard, which generates about $ 60 million in credits this season and nearly $ 100 the following season, and the draft (having accumulated new choices in 2020 late last week) have prepared the Colts to take all the measures they deem necessary in the future. future. Reich and his staff have improved rapidly as the season progressed and Andrew Luck appears to be on the brink of consolidating his quarterback status in the top five quarters after a non-rehab season in the system.

Although the Colts have a modest route to the 2019 Super Bowl, the most difficult schedule, according to our PFFELO power rankings, they are respected on the market with a total of 9.5 victories for Vegas and a rating of +1800 to win the Super Bowl. This numbers, unlike the seasonare hard to recommend by betting at current prices. Their divisional accessory (+150) is a better bet, even modest, because our model gives them a 42% chance of winning AFC South for the first time since 2014.

It's more than the 2019 season, though. It is important to know who will become a power in the CAF when (if, perhaps) the Patriotic dynasty (possibly, eventually) ends. Although other candidates certainly appear during the 2019 season (as the Chiefs did in 2018), my money is currently in the Colts.