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The minutes showed that council members thought that "the outlook had also become more uncertain over the past few months," but that "as the reduction in unemployment and rising inflation progressed, reasonable ", there was no need to change rates but stable and remains" a source of stability and confidence pending further progress ".
Housing investment falls more sharply
Alan Oster, chief economist of NAB, said the RBA appeared to be trying to dispel deeper concerns about the economy.
"What they say somehow is that there are downside risks related to consumption and the construction cycle … but they have [the RBA] said publicly that if wages went down, people would spend more, it would go away.
"NAB has a growth of 2.5% in 2019, the RBA of 3% The difference between us and them is that we consider this weakness as an essential element of the current situation, they see it as a risk."
Board members also noted that investment in housing "is expected to fall more sharply than expected, in line with declining residential building approvals and falling housing prices."
National home prices are now 6.1% below market levels in October 2017. Sydney housing prices have declined 9.7% over the last 12 months.
A special document on housing markets has been presented to the board of directors indicating that recent declines in house prices on economic activity should be "relatively low".
Sally Auld, Chief Economist of JP Morgan, said the "significant reserve" in this regard was the magnitude and acceleration of falling real estate prices, which, according to the council would lead to lower consumption and GDP forecasts, leading to higher unemployment and lower inflation.
"This opens up the prospect of some non-linearity in wealth effects, but also raises the question of how much is" much farther "for real estate prices, she said. declared.
The minutes revealed that board members had noted that the cumulative decreases in housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne were "relatively large by historical standards".
Ms. Auld said the minutes, speeches and the quarterly monetary policy statement seemed to be Ms. Auld's favorite. vectors to articulate the forward guidance and to provide more detail to the bank's thinking on its political bias ".
The board noted that real GDP growth of 0.3 percent in the quarter and 2.8 percent in the year was "significantly below expectations".
According to forecasts, the Australian economy is expected to grow by about 3% this year and a little less in 2020 due to slower growth in resource exports.
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