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Infectious disease experts are noting a plateau in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in the United States – although it is far too early to link the positive news to ongoing vaccinations.
Instead, experts attribute the decline to the post-holiday season, as fewer people travel and congregate indoors.
“After a long winter wave, the country is starting to see a decrease in the number of new COVID-19 infections,” wrote Dr. Steven Gordon, president of infectious diseases at the Cleveland Clinic, in an email. “While vaccinations will play an important role in controlling the pandemic, this slowdown in cases is probably not yet the result of vaccinations. More likely, the plateau occurs as fewer people travel and congregate as we pass. the holiday season. “
Data from Johns Hopkins University shows a steady decline in daily cases since early January, from nearly 250,000 new infections to around 170,000 in recent days, on a 7-day average. The nationwide positivity rate, or the percentage of tests returning positive, fell from over 13% to 9.4% in January. Hospitalizations are also on the decline; from approximately 130,000 hospital treatments around Jan. 10 to 118,000 more recently, per 7-day COVID Tracking Project average.
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Dr Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser on COVID-19, told NBC News on Monday that the numbers represent a natural peak and plateau.
“The number of vaccines we put in people’s arms, good start, we want to continue, get a lot of people vaccinated, but I don’t think the dynamics of what we’re seeing now with the cap is significantly influenced yet,” it will soon be, but yet by the vaccine, ”he said. “I just think that’s the natural course of the plateau.”
As vaccinations reach more of the population, experts expect a significant drop in hospitalizations, especially among the elderly and those with underlying illnesses at higher risk of severe COVID-19, says Dr Robert Kim-Farley, professor at UCLA Fielding School of Public. Health.
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There have been at least 21.8 million vaccinations against COVID-19 to date in the United States, or less than about 5% of the nation’s population, according to figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“We’re a long way from the roughly 75% of the population who need to be immunized before the epidemic goes away because of ‘herd immunity,” wrote Dr Dean Winslow, infectious disease physician at Stanford Health Care, in an email. It is important for Americans to continue to follow these physical preventive measures until we get to that 75% point. “
Dr Gordon of the Cleveland Clinic noted that the current pace of vaccinations and the level of spread of the virus will likely require mitigation measures such as wearing a mask and social distancing throughout the summer to prevent the spread of the virus as the country moves to collective immunity.
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