COVID-19 numbers improve, but infections could increase exponentially with Super Bowl gatherings

WASHINGTON (CNN) – COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are declining across much of the United States, but health experts have warned that could change if fans gather on Sunday to watch the Super Bowl with people outside their homes.

“When people get together in nearby private residences, it’s one of the most effective ways to spread this disease,” said Dr. Steven Stack, Kentucky Public Health Commissioner. “We cannot afford to have the disease spreading now, with these mutations and variants.”

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said: “Even though the instinct is to celebrate together, we cannot be arrogant.”

“We need to continue to do what we know is effective in taming the virus: wear a mask, respect social distance and avoid gatherings,” he said. “We can beat this stuff, but we’ve got to stay smart.”

This is especially true after a new study found that the highly contagious strain B.1.1.7, first detected in the UK, is now spreading rapidly in the US.

Although the B.1.1.7 strain is still only a relatively small portion of known cases in the United States, it doubles about every 10 days, the researchers say.

U.S. labs are still only sequencing a small portion of the coronavirus samples, the researchers said, so it’s not clear which variants are circulating in the country.

At least 699 cases of coronavirus variants first identified in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil had been reported in the United States as of Sunday, according to data from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The vast majority of these, 690, were variant B.1.1.7, which has so far been identified in 33 states.

Last month, the CDC projected that the B.1.1.7 variant could become the predominant strain in the United States by March. He estimates that the virus is about 50% more transmissible.

Without “decisive and immediate public health action,” the researchers warned, more transmissible variants “are likely to have devastating consequences for COVID-19 mortality and morbidity in the United States in a matter of months.”

Why some COVID-19 numbers are improving

After a terrible start to the winter – marked by new cases, hospitalizations and record deaths – new cases and hospitalization numbers are improving.

The United States has just marked its eighth consecutive day with fewer than 100,000 people hospitalized with COVID-19, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

And the seven-day average of new cases fell from 220,000 on Jan.6 to 120,000 on Saturday.

According to Dr.Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, this good news is likely a result of fewer vacation-related infections, as well as Americans doing a better job with safety precautions.

“That’s what I think is happening: a combination of the natural peak, as well as people doubling up on public health measures,” Fauci told MSNBC on Friday.

But daily deaths from COVID-19 are still high. For weeks, the United States has reported a daily average of more than 3,000 deaths from COVID-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The average daily death toll exceeds the number of lives lost in the September 11 attacks.

Some say safety measures, not vaccinations, are essential for opening schools

The CDC is expected to issue guidelines this week on how to open schools safely during the pandemic.

On Sunday, Fauci and Dr Scott Gottlieb said that while it is important to vaccinate teachers, it is not a prerequisite for opening schools.

However, mitigation measures are essential.

Opening K-8 schools in 100 days is a priority for President Joe Biden’s administration, Fauci told NBC “Meet the Press” on Sunday, but “they’re going to need help” so the schools can have ” the ability with masks, with the ability to get better ventilation, whatever you want to do. “

“It would be great to get all teachers vaccinated as quickly as possible,” Fauci said.

Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the United States Food and Drug Administration, told CBS’s “Face the Nation” that when it comes to opening schools, “I think the prerequisite is to put in place mitigation measures in schools. “

He noted that research has shown that when people wear masks, stay distant and take precautions, “there is very little transmission in the classroom. Schools are not a vector of transmission.”

Gottlieb said it would be good to vaccinate teachers quickly, “I don’t think that’s necessarily a prerequisite. I think schools have demonstrated that they can open safely if they have taken precautions in the class.”

Fauci: There is probably not enough time for some 1-dose studies

The two vaccines currently administered in the United States – from Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna – both require two doses, spaced three or four weeks apart.

But the offer is still limited. And health experts have debated whether the United States should administer the first doses to as many people as possible now, at the risk of delaying second doses for some people.

Fauci said there may not be enough time to study how much protection a dose offers or how long that protection lasts.

“By then we’ll already be in the arena to have enough vaccine to go around anyway,” Fauci told NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday.

“From a theoretical standpoint, it would be nice to know if you only get one dose, how long the durability lasts and what (is) the level of effect,” Fauci said. “So it would be great to have the study, but I don’t think we could do it in time.”

Fauci said he believes “you can get as many people … their first dose at the same time as the reasonable schedule for the second dose”.

Meanwhile, a third vaccine – which only requires a single dose – could become available to the public in the coming weeks.

Johnson & Johnson formally applied to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday for emergency use authorization for its one-dose COVID-19 vaccine. A decision could be made by the end of this month.

AstraZeneca vaccine will be discussed

Early data suggests that two doses of another vaccine, the one from Oxford / AstraZeneca, provide “minimal protection” against mild and moderate COVID-19 of the B.1.351 variant first identified in South Africa, Oxford University said on Sunday.

Viral neutralization against the B.1.351 variant was “significantly reduced” compared to the earlier strain of coronavirus, according to a press release from the University of Oxford on Sunday.

The study, which has not been published, included around 2,000 volunteers with an average age of 31. About half received the vaccine and half received a placebo.

The efficacy of the vaccine against severe COVID-19, hospitalization and death has not been evaluated.

After the Financial Times reported on the study on Saturday, AstraZeneca said it believed the vaccine could protect against serious illness. The company said it had started adapting the vaccine to the variant “so it’s ready for fall delivery when needed.”

The World Health Organization’s independent vaccine panel will meet on Monday to discuss the AstraZeneca vaccine and studies evaluating its effectiveness against the B.1.351 strain, Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO technical officer for the COVID-19, at CBS “Face the Nation”. .

A spokesperson for AstraZeneca told CNN on Saturday that a small trial found that the company’s COVID-19 vaccine offered limited protection against mild illness in cases caused by the B.1.351 variant. The study has not yet been peer reviewed.

There are “preliminary studies suggesting reduced efficacy,” Van Kerkhove told CBS. “But again, these studies are not yet fully published.”

Where does the United States stand on vaccines

Just over 31.5 million people have received at least their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, according to data released by the CDC on Sunday. More than 9 million people have been fully immunized with two doses.

In some parts of the country, officials are working to improve accessibility of vaccines to underserved and vulnerable communities.

In the Houston area, local officials say hospitals open to uninsured people receive a lower percentage of doses than private hospitals.

“You can have the best health care in the world, but if people don’t have it, it’s like you don’t have it at all,” said Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner.

“If you want to address the disparity, you have to send the doses to the sites that reach those areas.”

In the Northeast, some people will not get vaccinated on Sunday because of another challenge: the weather.

A huge winter storm that hit the region last week disrupted vaccination efforts in several states. On Saturday, Cuomo said some vaccination sites in New York City would suspend operations on Sunday.

“New Yorkers with appointments for tests or vaccinations at these sites will receive notification of these suspensions by text and telephone,” the governor’s office said. Appointments will be postponed until later in the week.

“ The perfect environment ” for viral spread

While many parts of the country have relaxed COVID-19 rules due to declining numbers, others remain firm in their mandates.

In New Orleans, several bars have been closed after failing to comply with COVID-19 restrictions, officials said on Saturday.

Los Angeles County, which has suffered from a crippling COVID-19 flare-up, recently announced that restaurants could reopen for alfresco dining – with restrictions. But public health director Barbara Ferrer said the county was still “far from eating inside.”

“The virus is spread very easily when you don’t have a face mask,” she says. “So when you are inside eating or drinking and you have to cover your face, it is like the perfect environment for this virus to spread.”

The-CNN-Wire ™ and © 2021 Cable News Network, Inc., a Time Warner Company. All rights reserved.

Related links

Related stories