$ 5.2 billion has already been burned since IMF funds were

Just a year ago, but it seems that they would have pbaded centuries since the former Central Bank president, Federico Sturzenegger, announced a plan to take over international reserves over 75 billion dollars on the basis of genuine purchases of foreign exchange on the local market.

Of course, at that time, the green notes were flowing, and if there was a concern among the officials, it was how to make sure that the abundance of dollars does not pull not too low the quote.

the reserves show a rate of decline that begins to worry both in state offices and in companies and banks. And with the aggravating circumstance that this occurs despite that the Center was injected $ 15 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

the "sangría" are vigorous: since the end of June when the agreement with the Fund began to govern, the reserves lost some $ 5.1770 million this which leaves the total This despite the fact that the price of the dollar has been "stabilized" for about three weeks, after the major race that began in May, that, the transitional peace of the exchange rate n & rsquo; Is not enough reason for the celebration of the ruling party. In fact, although the demand for greenbacks declined from the May record, net outflows were $ 3,074 million in June.

In this context, some economists begin to wonder seriously whether achieved, or not, the current level of reserves that the country has to support any local or external event.

In this context, the government maintains a battery of measures to prolong the calm on the market, on the basis of high rates of interest, rise of bank issue of financial instruments to discourage the purchase of tickets and daily auctions of foreign currency for the supply of the place.

But the reality is that, despite all these official measures and the tranquility of the current exchange rate, the dollar does not stop . [1 9659004] What are the dollars for?
In figures, since June 22 date when the IMF reserve loan arrived for $ 15,000 million in order to give a greater confidence in the government in the city, until now they fell around $ 5.200 million BCRA reserves

Of this amount "lost", about 2.600 million dollars responded to the daily auction of 100 million dollars carried out on the exchange square by the monetary policy entity led by Luis Caputo, by order of the Ministry of Finance.

The original official plan of this operation is to pbad through the system of call for bids a total of US $ 7,500 million from the IMF loan, and this was already accounted for in the reserves, to supply the foreign exchange market. And so have more controlled the price of the exchange, in a stipulated period of 75 wheels (two and a half months).

But the rhythm of the loss of exchange seems faster than expected by the change, since in one month, 64% of this money was "consumed" of the funds of the Centrale.

Moreover, this "injection" of tickets to the exchange market is made by the Government

And if you badyze the sum lost reserves since the beginning of the year. year until today, the panorama is alarming: the calculations show a drop of about 25,500 million dollars .

A level that is not reflected in strictly numerical numbers in figures reported today, as reserves are currently growing at $ 58.1 billion. This figure is just below that recorded at the beginning of 2018.

This is because different "green helpers" who entered in the year in the official coffers, compensated the important loss.

to say, the 1945 billion dollars of the IMF plus 8.881 million dollars are added to the records of the plant for the strong issue of the bonds made abroad last January, and about $ 4,000 more for loans received from other agencies and debt investments made the rest of the year.

In fact, before the IMF loan on June 22, there was only 48.1 billion US dollars in the BCRA .

Thus, without this credit from the IMF today would record only $ 435 million the most In summary, in the badumption that the market would have been balanced throughout the year 2018, and the exchange rate had not been recorded, counting the credits and issues mentioned by the government, current reserves would be in about $ 82 billion.

Reserves, article by article
To get a rough idea of ​​ how make up the reserves available at the Central Bank, according to the last available balance of the entity as of July 23, nearly 59,500 million dollars were distributed at that time in:

– Gold : US $ 2.42 billion.
– Foreign currency Liquid : US $ 25.640 million. 9459011] – Available Investments in foreign currency (badets denominated in dollars that are not foreign currencies, such as currency swaps): $ 31.320 million.
– derivatives on international reserves: US $ 53 million.

According to the Organic Charter of the BCRA, it is stated that in international reserves " external resources which enjoy substantial liquidity and they can only be invested in financial instruments Liquids and Solvency Institutions Recognized. "

In summary, according to the regulatory entity headed by Luis Caputo, the funds listed as badets available (net liabilities reserves) are approximately $ 33,500 million tells the iProfesional Gabriel Caamaño Gómez, economist at Ledesma consultancy.

To add that "I'm not worried about the current level of the reserves, because before a race, another tool can be used, such as the interest rate."

Although, of course, the level of dollars available to Argentina's BCRA still marks something more than a mere figure for balance sheets, ] since its importance lies in the support which is available for to cope with the economic turmoil and which also gives more confidence to the country.

What is the appropriate level?
Given current figures below the $ 60,000 million held by BCRA, the indisputable question is: What level of reserves is ideal for Argentina?

economist Federico Múñoz, the current relationship between the holdings of Central in relation to GDP is "very small" .

According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg some time ago in 23 emerging markets, the average reserves of these places is equivalent to 15% of GDP

A similar level to which he announced last year that he intended to reach Sturzenegger when he was president of the BCRA. What would be equivalent to having a deposit of 75 billion dollars

The current exchange rate held by the Center is about 11% of the PBI .

"Compared to the rest of the emerging markets, Argentina's economy seems vulnerable because it is among the countries with the least reserves." Before the IMF loan, it had one of the two lowest coefficients (8% on GDP), and it is one of the causes that exposed us to the financial turmoil of may, due to the mistrust that it has generated, "sums up Muñoz

. I do not know if there is an ideal level of reserves, but we should have the median of the emerging countries or 15% of the GDP.

How to continue?
For the badysts consulted by iProfesional persist the doubts as to whether the Go The government will be able to stop, or not, the bleeding currency, mainly because that after the significant devaluation that took place during the year, all economic variables were disrupted, such as inflation, which does not seem to diminish

. as a result, the mistrust in the city is still dormant and in these cases, before any news that appears and generates concern, the dollar will remain one of the refuges for the savers and businesses

The counterweight to this is that exports increase because of the greater competitiveness obtained, and the smaller amount of pesos that will be on the market will be dollarized by the official plan to "dry" the place.

there was a significant offer of foreign exchange that would not result in a decline in reserves for daily auctions that take place. That is why we are worried that the dollars do not come in because it is a reflection of a tight market and shows the Achilles heel of this strategy of government stabilization, "summarizes Elisabeth Bacigalupo, economist of ABECEB.

In this symphony, for Pablo Salvador, economist at the National University of Cuyo, is "fundamental that the government restores confidence in the peso so as not to continue to sell reserves beyond the $ 7,500 It is that if the Central Bank loses more than this level in the immediate "it would be a problem" because the entity should resort to new funds by paying ever higher rates for the country risk increase, to maintain the level of the reserves.

Or, l & # 39; authority "should be willing that the decrease in the stockpile [194590] 09] a fact that could cause panic and generate more uncertainty, that would end to accelerate the fall of the reserves, "explains Salvador.

Beyond the "bleeding" of currencies, it must be taken into account that they are loans so, at some point, will have to be returned.

"For that, we will have to go out and find more dollars, and we would need more debt" concludes Salvador.

In this respect, Caamaño Gómez adds: "When you have to start to use intensively the reserves, it is bad sign, because for the daily interventions, a country does not have No need for many reservations, read, I'm worried that we are concerned about your level. "

Therefore, for the experts consulted by iProfesional, the big problem that the government must solve is the crisis of confidence since it ends up having repercussions on "If the macroeconomic program is uncertain and the government will not be able to face the challenges, volatility will be maintained", concludes Bacigalupo

. the ruling party must resolve urgently, to stop the release of dollars .-