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Colombian economist Pavel Vidal Alejandro pointed out this Friday, at a conference in Miami, that the decapitalization of the Cuban economy and the drop in productivity had opened a "gap" with Latin America, which could only be the investment rate around 10-15% of gross domestic product (GDP).
On the second day of the annual conference of the American Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE), the aforementioned economist presented the findings of the "American Economics Association. study "What place does the Cuban economy occupy in the region? ."
This is the first time that measures are taken at the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rate, to GDP and total per capita productivity and the Cuban economy.
Vidal pointed out the difficulty in using official exchange rate data provided by the Cuban State, since when using Cuban peso's birth rate d (1 UPC: 1 dollar) "the dollar value of GDP is overestimated" . He "distorts", he said
Thus, according to the official exchange rate, total GDP in Cuba in 2014 was $ 80.65 million and per capita income of $ 7177.
But the estimate made by Vidal, using a medium change, it differs significantly from the official: the total GDP and per capita were this year of $ 33.88 million and $ 3,016 respectively 60% lower than the official GDP.
Professor of the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana (Cali), he incorporated in his methodology for estimating Cuban GDP the PPA and the formulations of the Penn World Table (PWT), as well as the international relative prices estimated by the Bank World, and compared the island's economy with ten similar-sized economies in the region.
One of the main conclusions of the report points out that the Cuban economy "has not yet exceeded capacity and per capita income" over the years Previous to the severe economic crisis of the so-called special period, in the 1990s.
In fact, in 2014, total Cuban GDP and per capita measured in current dollars at the PPP rate "was about 30 as a result, in five decades, the Cuban economy has "declined in the region" and, currently, "accounts for 71% of the Dominican Republic's economy and 61% of the equator
It should be noted, he pointed out, that in the 1970s, Cuba and Uruguay "had the highest GDP per capita" in the region, while today's Caribbean Island ranks sixth among the ten nations selected for comparison: Bolivia, Costa Rica, Republica Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Panama, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Colombian professor and economist estimates that "reforms take the direction As reported by Raúl Castro these are" insufficient "to stop" decapitalization "and increase productivity, in addition to" not enjoying the benefits of education on the island.
So, if Cuba aspires to recover the "lost ground" will have to "increase productivity", which is only possible if "structural reforms" Are being undertaken and that investments are increasing.
He believes that the increase in the investment rate is the "number one priority" "be able to stop the decapitalization, a" disadvantage " which has worsened since 2011 with "emigration of young workers".
In the field of education, the expert pointed out that school and university education was an important "advantage" for Cuba, and helped to "bridge the gap" in the years 70 and 80, but today it is no longer because there is no place for a skilled labor, "the main contradiction of the reforms. "
In the end, the" mode "the socialist eclipsed the Cuban economy in the region," he added.
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