BCP says GDP can grow more than 4.7% this year, but warns of risks – Printed Edition

According to Fernández, economic fundamentals are still firm and not far from what was initially estimated. In this sense, the adjustment of GDP from 4.5% to 4.7% is mainly due to a base year adjustment that has been internalized in the computing structure, he said. says in an interview on the subject.

Sin However, the head of the parent bank estimates that GDP could close above 4.7% expansion (set after the last revision), based on short-term economic information term. For example, the monthly indicator of economic activity (Imaep) showed an interannual increase of 6% in the fifth month of this year, and it is already very difficult to recover much of this figure, has said Fernandez.

Growth places us as the fastest growing economy this year in the region, despite criticism from some sectors that did not trust BCP projections.

The latest Central Bank monetary policy report argues that the expansion of the economy is largely due to the performance of the commercial and government branches in the tertiary sector, while in the the secondary sector, the main contribution is for the performance of the manufacturing industry. PCO predicts growth of 6% for the secondary sector and 4.4% for the tertiary sector.

Risks on the Road

According to Fernández, this year it is difficult to reverse the economic situation, but urged to be attentive to the external context to apply appropriate policies to contain growth in current levels.

Looking at the international economic scenario in 2013, and comparing it with the current context, they see – according to him – more risks that could affect economic performance.

Among these factors, he mentions something that is also detailed in the Monetary Policy Report, in that the US Federal Reserve's rate was at close to zero in 2013 and in subsequent years several adjustments have been made, with prospects for further increases, which affect the exchange rate. On the other hand, the price of soybeans, which was about $ 500 a ton, is now $ 300, as a result of the Sino-US trade war [19659003] With regard to the region, he added that the prospects for Argentina and Brazil, if in 2013 they were not very good, now they are worse than before. "There is a high risk relative to the external context of what it was in 2013 compared to current conditions, and Paraguay will have to be very smart in its policies to maintain this growth rate," Fernandez said. . 19659003] He argued that some impacts have already occurred, such as the narrowing of border trade and commercial tourism of Argentines.

Continuity of Politics

Carlos Fernández also referred to the designation of José Cantero for the ownership of the Central Bank of Paraguay for the next period. He noted that the appointment of José Cantero Sienra to replace him in the position is interpreted as a continuation of the monetary and institutional policies of the parent bank, which will have among its priorities to maintain the 4-year inflation target. % and the recently approved law enforcement.

Cantero is currently a member of the board of directors of the BCP and has already been appointed by the elected president Mario Abdo Benítez to head the central monetary institution. To be confirmed in the position, you will then need the parliamentary agreement.