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In June, all business confidence indicators fell, halting the recovery begun in April after the resignation of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski to the Presidency of the Republic and [39] hypothesis of M artín Vizcarra.
The indexes of expectations on the performance of the economy at three and 12 months decreased respectively by 1.9 and 1.6 points, according to the latest survey of macroeconomic expectations of the Central Reserve Bank ( BCR ).
In terms of employers' expectations of their sector, the three-month index fell by 2.6 points and the 12-month index by 2.8 points. The expectations of the economy and the three-month sector have a strong positive correlation with GDP growth.
According to the report, firms in the manufacturing and trading sector reduced their expectations on the performance of the economy to three months. Construction has moved to the pessimistic section. However, the mining and hydrocarbons sector has increased its expectations on the economy.
For Elmer Cuba, Macroconsult's partner, the fall in the business confidence indexes is due to the problems that led to the resignation of the former Minister of the Economy David Tuesta, in a context of government marches and risers for the setting of the selective tax on consumption
The indices of expectations of the situation of companies at three and twelve months also fell by 2.8 and 1.7 points, respectively. Similarly, product demand expectations fell to three (-1.6 points) and 12 months (-1.5 points). The only index that remained unchanged was contraction. However, all the clues remained in the optimistic section despite the falls.
"The data on the activity are good, but Vizcarra must re-engage the private sector," concludes Cuba.
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