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The decapitalization of the Cuban economy and the decline in its productivity have opened a "gap" with Latin America that can only be closed with an increase in the rate of investment of about 10-15% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an economist at a conference in Miami pointed out this Friday
This is one of the conclusions of the study " What place does the Cuban economy occupy in the region? " Prepared by Colombian economist Pavel Vidal Alejandro, who launched the second day of the annual conference of the American Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE).
This is the first time that measures are taken at the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rate of total GDP per capita. and the productivity of the Cuban economy.
In the first place, Vidal pointed out the difficulty of using the official exchange rate data provided by the Cuban State because using Cuban peso parity rate (1 CUP: 1 dollar) " the dollar value of GDP is overestimated ". He "distorts" it, he said
Thus, according to the official exchange rate, the total GDP in Cuba in 2014 was 80.65 million and the per capita income of 7,177 million dollars .
But the estimate made by Vidal, using a medium change, differs considerably from the official: The total GDP and per capita this year were $ 33.88 million and $ 3,016, or 60%
The economist, professor at the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, in Cali, incorporated the PPA and Penn World Table (PWT) formulations into his methodology for estimating GDP Cuban, as well as International Estimates prices estimated by the World Bank, and comparing the island economy with ten economies of similar size in the region.
One of the main findings of the report points out that the Cuban economy "has not yet outperformed the productive and per capita income" recorded in the years preceding the economic crisis of the so-called special period, in the 1990s.
One of the main conclusions of the report notes that the Cuban economy "has not yet exceeded the production capacity and per capita income" recorded in years prior to the special period
In fact, in 2014, total Cuban GDP and per capita measured in current dollars at the PPP rate "It was about 30% below 1985 levels."
As a result, in five decades, Vidal said, the Cuban economy "is reduced in the region" and, currently, "accounts for 71% of the economy of the Dominican Republic and 61% of the Ecuadorian economy. "
It should be noted, he pointed out, that in the 1970s, Cuba" with the highest GDP per capita "in the region, today's # The Caribbean Island ranks sixth among the ten nations selected for comparison: Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Panama, Paraguay and Uruguay.
note the good direction "of the reforms undertaken by former president Raul Castro, they are" insufficient "to stop the" decapitalization "and increase productivity, in addition to" not enjoying the benefits of education on the island. [19659002AinsisiCubaAttempttorecoverthe"terrainperdu"itwill"increaseproductivity"thisispossiblequesi"structuralreformess"areCompaniesandinvestmentsincrease
The increase in the rate of Investment is the "number one priority" to stop decapitalization, a "disadvantage" that has worsened since 2011 with "the emigration of the young workforce."
In the field of education, the expert pointed out that school and university education was an "important advantage" for Cuba, and helped to "bridge the gap" in the the 70s and 80s, but today Now, it is no longer "
In the end, the" socialist model eclipsed the Cuban economy in the region, "he added.
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