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The above closed the WTI in July at $ 68.72 per barrel, which equates to a 7.32% drop in its price, while the price of Brent fell 6.53% per month. and closed at $ 74.25 per barrel
On the demand side, the losses were due to the nervousness that the US-China trade war could affect global economic growth and reduce demand for energy. ; hydrocarbons. It is important to mention that a slowdown in economic growth in China has already begun to be observed and, although this deceleration is not related to the trade war, the Asian giant's economy slowdown worries the market. [19659002Deplusons'attendàcequelesprixélevésdupétrolelimitentégalementlademanded'hydrocarburesSelonl'Agenceinternationaledel'(IEA)aucoursdusecondsemestrelademandedepétrolebrutatteindraenmoyenne13milliondebarilsparjour(bpd)soit02mbjdemoinsquelamoyennede15mbjobservéeaupremiersemestreDucôtédel'offrelespressionsàlabaissesontvenuesdel'augmentationdelaproductiondepétrolebrutdel'OPEPetdesesalliésainsiquedelapressiondel'administrationleprixdel'essencediminue
It should be recalled that at the end of June, OPEC and its allies decided to reduce their production cuts to the ceiling agreed at the end of 2016 of 32.8 mbj . In May, production reached a minimum of 31.8 Mb / d. It is estimated that in July, OPEC increased its joint production to 32.8 mbd, while Russia could have reached a maximum of 11.22 mbd.
However, despite the fall in the price of July, it is unlikely that the price will fall further. This is because trade distortions persist and the supply of crude oil is expected to be limited. It is important to remember that Trump's complaints about the price of gasoline and oil began during the months of May and June, when WTI and Brent reached respectively 75.27 and 80.50 dollars a barrel. These prices were met before the reimposition of US sanctions on Iran after Trump decided to step out of the nuclear deal.
While OPEC and its allies have already begun to increase oil production because of US pressure, it is unlikely that they can offset the losses that Iranian production will once leave the sanctions applied. It is worth mentioning that the Government of Saudi Arabia and some of its allies have pledged to offset the oil production lost by these sanctions. However, they are unlikely to do so, since Iran produces about 3.78 Mb / d, while Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq respectively have a maximum production capacity of 11.5 Mb / d, 3.15 Mb / d and 4.7 they produce very close to their maximum levels. The above means that these countries must produce above their maximum capacity to offset the fall of the Iranian supply. Similarly, Venezuela's oil production, which has reduced production by more than 600% in the face of the country's economic crisis, is expected to continue to decline, while Libyan and Nigerian unstable.
In view of the foregoing and the expectation that distortions in commodity markets will continue, a wide fluctuation in the price of WTI can not be ruled out. On the upside, the price of WTI could first move towards a resistance of $ 72 per barrel and even reach its annual high of $ 75.27 per barrel. Downward, WTI could hit a minimum of $ 66 per barrel
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