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The Brazilian economy experienced its largest decline in 15 years, or 3.34% in May the worst indicator since the Central Bank began measuring the level of income. activity, 2003.
The Institution's Focus Bulletin, based on calculations by leading private consultants, considers that June data may indicate improvement. But growth estimates for this year are significantly lower than initially expected. The expansion would be only 1.6% and not the previously calculated 3%.
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Immediate consequence of such an uninspiring prospect, skepticism has increased: calculated by the Getulio Vargas Foundation, the Index of Business Confidence (CIE) decreased by 1.9 point in June compared to May. "This deepens a trend outlined in April and May." Part of the increase in discouragement in June had to do with the truckers strike at the end of May, but that added to other factors. The slow pace of economic recovery, the lack of credibility of the government's (Michel Temer's) policy in this area, and the political uncertainty, "said the report. entity.
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The question that specialized consultants are asking now is how will this influence investment decisions and even consumption? . There is something that is clear to all: the insecurity generated by the electoral panorama, only 83 days before the presidential elections of 7 October. As the technicians warn, they must add to the deteriorating financial conditions that hinder any investment project.
Indices emerging from industrial production, retailing and the automobile reveal the dominant pessimism: 9% less of the goods they manufacture. Services, which represent a key segment of the economy, fell 3.8% and construction, autos and auto parts fell 4.9%. All this reveals a end of the year, and the Temer government, nothing promising. According to economists, in order to prevent May's economic slowdown from becoming a permanent drag, there should be a recovery of no less than 6.6 in the July-August-September quarter. %. Nobody bet in this direction. "For the rest of the year, there are still uncertainties about the pace of economic activity," admitted the Central Bank through its Focus newsletter.
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That is, neither more nor less, what is at the base of the "disinterest" of the Brazilians in the October elections. According to Ibope Intelligence's director, Marcia Cavallaria, this became apparent after a qualitative research that promoted the institute. "Voter groups of different profiles expressed only despair and anguish," admitted the specialist to the newspaper Estado de Sao Paulo . He revealed that the electorate "has no prospect of improvement". In their badysis, they "do not see, among the candidates, which of them will leave the country of the situation in which it is located."
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One can hope, however, that when the campaigns start "they will be able to identify prospects". Marcia said the Brazilians are extremely cautious: "They will not be carried away by miraculous projects." And as for the "unknown" candidates that may arise until next August, "they are not excited either. They perceive that the panorama is very complex and that an entirely new person can govern.
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In this context, it is not surprising that most of those who say today vote in blank, cancel the vote or they just will not go to vote, these are precisely women: women represent 6 disillusioned Brazilians out of 10. This is not a detail for candidates for executive power. They represent 52% of the national electorate.
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