Reduces the estimated economic growth of the Italian central bank

In its third economic bulletin of 2018, the central bank said that the gross domestic product (GDP) will continue to increase over the next triennium, including an increase of 1, 2 percent by 2020, although it is experiencing the negative impact of rising oil prices.

The downward revision of the estimated expansion of the national economy generally coincides with that made the day before by the European Commission in its 2018 summer outlook, with the difference that the 39; regional body expects growth from 1.1 to 2019.

In the opinion of experts from the Bank of Italy, inflation will gradually increase, although it will remain slightly lower than the euro area, while the prospects

However, they point out, the risk increases that the global trade and the activity of the companies present on the international markets are slowed down by a possible aggravation of the trade tensions between the United States. The Bank of Italy paper emphasizes that the basic scenario of the estimates presupposes a favorable global context, relaxed credit conditions, a largely expansive monetary structure and a fiscal framework compatible with a gradual reduction of the ratio. In this sense, the text reaffirms that the risks for economic activity stem above all from an accentuation of protectionist orientation in the main countries.

ocs / fgg