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The central bank has adjusted its outlook on the economy downward; For example, in the case of economic growth, it is expected that by the end of 2018, domestic production will increase by 3.2%, while in January its projection was 3.6%.
It's even lower than the figure of that closed last year, when the GDP was 3.3%, data released yesterday by the Central Bank in the review at mid-year of the 2018-2019 macroeconomic program.
Economic activity will increase, in real terms, 3.2% in 2018 and 3.4% a year later, due to the increase in domestic demand.
These values are badociated with a balance of payments current account deficit of 3.3% and 3.1% of GDP, respectively, and, as in previous years, their financing would be financed by resources. the Central does not expect a rebound in the economy during this first half, while household consumption increases by 2.9%, the value being lower by 0, 2 percentage points to the recorded in 2017.
This has shown, to a large extent, the lower purchase of imported goods (vehicles, appliances and food products), financial services, food and beverages outside of the House. This is consistent with the decline in the terms of trade and its effect on disposable income, in addition to the weaker growth in consumer credit, the Central Bank said.
The only indicator that has not changed was the 3% inflation target with a tolerance of one point up or down.
Consecutive inflation has been less than 4% over the last 41 months, similar to that from August 1964 to December 1967.
Large Variables
When the results of the economy in 2017 are compared with those projected by the Central Bank in January in the presentation of the macroeconomic program and yesterday in its revision, important changes are observed they must be badyzed by economic agents (percentages of growth, excluding current account, deficit and debt as a percentage of GDP).
Variable Component 2017 Revision 201 8 Macro Program 2018
GDP 3.3 3.2 3.6
Unemployment 9.3 10.3 10.3
Inflation 2.6 3 + – one point percent 3 + – one percentage point [19659002] Current Account -2.8 -3.3 -3.3
Budget Deficit -6.2 -7.2 -7.1
Public Debt 49, 1 53.8 53.6
Liquidity 9 7.8 9.7
Credits Columns 11.8 7.6 10.9
Dollars $ 0.3 1.0 1.0
Bank Central of the Source
The economy will walk slow pace
Economists surveyed by THE REPUBLIC say that growth will be very slow this year.
Alberto Franco
Economist
Ecobadysis
One of the deviations from the projections of last January is related to the expected growth of the economy. On this occasion (July), the Bank confirms that the economy has grown a little slower than expected in the first half that has just completed and that it expects growth for the rest of 2018 and 2019 will be a little more modest from what he anticipated in January
Melvin Garita
Economist
Independent ]
A strong economic downturn is expected for this year, it is difficult for the government to tackle the fiscal deficit because there is less revenue because the treasury has nothing to cover the expenses that increase at a faster pace.
Olivier Castro
] President
Central Bank
The Costa Rican economy has a growth rate that in the overall context, it is acceptable, logically it can increase more, however, there is a tax problem does not allow it and for this reason we urge the deputies to approve a tax reform.
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