The tariff war keeps oil down from US $ 80 and Brent drops more than 7% on the day

A day after the barrel of Brent reactivated its badault on the US $ 80 barrier, with high intraday on the edge of US $ 79, its price deflates with lower minimums even at US $ 74.

The falls of today's session exceed 7% of the price of Brent, a reference in Europe , with this badault US $ 80 are postponed, just as attempts to quote the barrel type West Texas, a reference in the United States, to establish at US $ 75.

Petroleum market operators opt for sales in response to the resurgence of the tariff war. Last week, the Trump Administration's offer to Europe to avoid the introduction of new tariffs in the European automotive industry has fueled the hope of boosting energy efficiency. a withdrawal from the US commercial offensive. These hopes now clash with the new tariffs announced by the United States, for an amount close to 200 000 million US dollars.

Analysts do not ignore the threats of retaliation like the one that was launched in China that affected the oil market. The Asian giant has proposed to respond to White House offensives with new tariffs on US oil imports. China is the destination of about 20% of all US crude oil exports, with a bill of nearly $ 1,000 million a month.

Cross-trades between the two largest powers jeopardize global growth forecasts. The badysis firms rethink their previous estimates and in cases such as the Nomura investment bank, the worst case scenario is a war between the United States and China that ends with the introduction of 10% tariffs on average for all products of the "commercial enemy". The Japanese firm uses Oecd's trade data to quantify the impact of these measures on a drag of 2.2 points of US GDP and 1.7 points on Chinese GDP.

Saudi Saadi, Libya and Iran
The deceleration of growth, even if it was of a more moderate magnitude, would considerably reduce the demand of the two economic powers, in turn, the two largest oil consumers of the world.

In its latest monthly report, published today, OPEC estimates that global demand for crude oil will reach 100.3 million barrels per day in 2019, 1.4% more than forecast for this year.

The war of tariffs having an impact on the world economy, a possible slowdown in demand would coincide with the rebound in production agreed at the last summit of OPEC

Investors adjust their outlook short and medium term balance of supply and demand with news from Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iran. The latest data known today reflects an increase in Saudi crude oil production of 459,000 barrels per day in June, to 10,489 million barrels, above the OPEC ceiling of 10,058 million barrels. barrels.

Quotas, Libya announced the reopening of several ports for the export of crude oil, a key factor in the reduction of more than half of its oil pumping compared to levels reached in February.

Forecasts for the levels Iranian exports could also adjust upwards following the latest comments on Iran launched by the United States. The White House raised the possibility that several countries have been exempted from the sanctions that the United States will apply from November for the import of Iranian crude.