Uruguay Vs. France: I tell you the results of the quarter-finals

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By Augusto Souto *

BLOG SUMA **

We would not leave you in the quarterfinals. Another day we talked about how we went with the predictions of the eighths (it was not so bad, with surprises like Russian, there is no statistical model that lasts.) [19659004] Statistical models calibrated in Blog SUMA CINVE (see methodology) and that they use historical information on won and lost matches, goals for and against, positions in international rankings, etc., indicate that in the quarterfinals, the favorites are France, Brazil, England and Croatia. The team most likely to pbad the round is Croatia with 70%. In contrast, the matches of England-Sweden and France-Uruguay, are a priori the most peer of the round.
Do not say we say that Uruguay will lose! No, what we are saying is that you must be measured in expectations. According to the historical performances of Uruguay and France, Uruguay has a 40% chance of winning the match.

By cons, after 90 minutes, the four most likely results of the Uruguay-France match are 1-0 in favor of France, the draw to 1, the draw to 0 and the Uruguayan victory 1 to 0. In case of overtime, the probability of going into penalty is 80.6%, the probability that France wins in the elongated is 11.4% and the probability of winning Uruguay in the extension is 8%.

In the other key game, played by Belgium and Brazil, the most likely results shown by the model after The 90 minutes of play are 1-0 in favor of Brazil, the draw to zero and the draw to 1.

Finally, the warning of rigor, it is done only for a fun purpose. Bet at your own risk, we are not responsible!

Up to Uruguay!

Probabilities Fourth Team Russia 2018

* Research Assistant at the CINVE (Center for Economic Research).

Twitter: @AugustusSouto

E-mail: [email protected]

** Written registration for the SUMA blog of CINVE www.suma.org.uy [19659015] Source:

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