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by Brad Brevet
April 18, 2019
Following a strong performance in March, the domestic box office will be slow in the early part of April and this weekend will not be much different. Of course, just like last April Avengers: Infinity War close out the month, this April Avengers: Endgame, and studios are making way for the release Endgame's debut. As for this week's newcomers, we're seeing several titles made of Wednesday's debuts of Breakthrough and Disneynature's Penguins along with tomorrow's launch of The Curse of La Llorona.
Warner Bros. and New Line are looking at their third straight weekend with the # 1 movie, this time around the horror release, The Curse of La Llorona, debuting in 3,372 rentals. While not specifically in the news Conjuring franchise, Llorona does co-star Tony Amendola Father Perez from the priest Annabelle film and is being marketed as "from the producers of The Conjuring "The loose association with that universe should add to the film's weekend profile, while online ticket retailer Fandango.com is reporting Llorona is outpacing Insidious: The Last Key ($ 29.5m start) at the same point in the sales cycle.
That said, a look at IMDb Llorona trailing The Last Key more installments in the Insidious franchise along with Annabelle: Creation, but not by margins significant enough for us to believe this film is going to miss expectations. In fact, we're anticipating a performance anywhere from $ 16-19 million, currently forecasting an $ 17 + million beginning.
WB will also land in the runner-up position with Shazam! as it looks to pull in $ 13.5 million. The film just topped $ 100 million at the domestic box office and the end of the weekend it should be around $ 117 million or so it starts its third week in release.
In the middle of the week Wednesday, the first official release of Fox's next release. Disney's acquisition of the company. Breakthrough is the latest release from producer DeVon Franklin who recently delivered such faith-based features The Star and Miracles from Heaven, the latter of which was also a Wednesday release Breakthrough is looking as if it will deliver a similar performance. Breakthrough brought in $ 1.88 million on Wednesday, coming in just $ 386 behind Miracles from Heaven's first day. Similarly, IMDb page view data shows Breakthrough pacing fractions behind the 2016 release, which was released in mid-March while Breakthrough will be able to take advantage of the Easter weekend. All told, we're looking for Breakthrough to start with anywhere from $ 13-14 million for a three-day and a five-day cume around $ 17-18 million.
Universal's Little is entering its sophomore after a solid start last weekend. We're currently anticipating a -41% dip and a three-day performance around $ 9 million for $ 30 million.
Rounding out the top five is Disney's Dumbolooking at a weekend performance around $ 5.5 million for a domestic cume just on the edge, if not topping, $ 100 million in its fourth week in release.
Elsewhere, Disney debut their latest Disneynature documentary Penguins on Wednesday with $ 500k and a look at Disneynature installments suggesting a three day around $ 4-5 million and a $ 6-7 million five-day start.
Additionally, Bleecker will expand the release of Teen Spirit from writer / director Max Minghella and starring She Fanning in 696 rentals (+692) and we're currently expecting the movie for $ 1.5-2.5 million for the weekend and a place outside the top ten.
In limited release, look for Fox's release of Kalank to open around $ 2 million from 320 rentals for a place just outside the top ten. Additionally, Lionsgate will open Fast Color in 20 theaters; Neon's Little Woods opens in 33 theaters; and Red Joan from IFC will start in 3 locations.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Sunday night preview.
- The Curse of La Llorona (3,372 theaters) – $ 17.0 M
- Shazam! (4,183 theaters) – $ 13.5 M
- Breakthrough (2,824 theaters) – $ 13.0 M
- Little (2,667 theaters) – $ 9.1 M
- Dumbo (3,225 theaters) – $ 5.5M
- Captain Marvel (2,653 theaters) – $ 5.2 M
- Hellboy (3,303 theaters) – $ 5.0 M
- Pet Sematary (3,146 theaters) – $ 4.7 M
- Penguins (1,815 theaters) – $ 4.5 M
- Us (2,262 theaters) – $ 3.8 million
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