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The primary Democratic primary field has turned to a three-person race and, despite the relentless efforts of the remaining candidates, Thursday's debate does not seem to have really changed the game.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts withdrew from the pack in most of the national polls and the first states held over the past month.
It is not surprising that these three candidates have risen to the top of the pack among more than 20: Biden, Sanders and Warren are the three contenders for the race with a national political brand and they used their campaigns for their messages with a clarity that none of their competitors have a.
More surprising is the fact that in a campaign that began with the party's desire to be younger and more diverse, none of the many other candidates has managed to gain a place among the top three. white septuagenarians.
The problem: While some of the candidates in the second group have had strong electoral campaigns, none has been able to translate them into lasting political gains.
Thursday's debate in Houston has given these candidates one of the few opportunities they will have to keep a wider choice before primary voters.
It will not be clear for a week or more if one of them has had real moments of reflection. But the seven rivals on the scene have tried just about every tactic of the book.
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota has sought to provide moderate solutions to Sanders and Warren's health, gun control and taxation policies. Early on, she categorically stated that Sanders' "Medicare for All" plan was a "bad" idea.
Former Obama cabinet member Julián Castro repeatedly questioned Biden, including letting him know that he was losing his memory – a personal attack that seemed to be turning against him, both in substance and style.
Senator Kamala Harris of California attempted to attack President Trump and not his Democratic rivals – a somewhat surprising position for a candidate who had attacked Biden in a memorable way during his first debate in June and who had then enjoyed significant momentum even though it was temporary.
Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey preached for "a common cause and common purpose" rather than for Democrats to "demonize and degrade themselves". He was also one of Biden's most severe critics, although he did it in an interview with CNN after the debate rather than on stage:
"Many people are worried about Joe Biden's ability to carry the ball down the line without fumbling," he said. "I know that Castro had really legitimate concerns."
While the candidates all worked to make distinctions between them, they also raised the debate with more kind words to each other than in previous clashes, sensitive to the risk of alienating voters who want the party meet.
The result was a tribute to Sanders for being the pioneer of Medicare for all; former representative Beto O'Rourke for his management of a mass fire in his hometown of El Paso; and especially on the former President Obama, a change of tone from the July debate when some candidates criticized his policy and sparked the enthusiasm of the Obama loyalists.
Both Warren and Harris took the time to applaud Obama's health care management, while touting projects that would go well beyond the Obama Affordable Affordable Act. Both candidates sought to expand their support to African-American voters, a group that gives Biden advantage and among which Obama remains particularly popular.
Nevertheless, the three best candidates were the most focused: they were the target of beards. Biden and Warren had the most time. And they showed how much they hoped to play with their hands and compete in the next, more intense chapter of the main campaign.
Warren, for the most part, addressed his criticisms of corruption and the political system, not his rivals. Political analysts have predicted that at some point, Warren and Sanders, ideological soul mates, will have to start making distinctions between them. This moment did not come on Thursday.
Although she has not yet developed her own detailed health care plan, Warren has doubled her commitment to Sanders' Medicare for All health care proposal.
Sanders has focused more on establishing distinctions with Biden – claiming that they were on the opposite side of the Obama era's trade policy and the Iraq war.
Biden is caught in Warren for dodging a question, whether middle-class families would see their taxes increase under Medicare for all. Even though he can never escape his habit of verbal wandering, he has become more comfortable than he had previously been in his critics at the same time. respect of his two liberal rivals, who went too far and wanted to spend too much.
Thursday was the first time Biden appeared on the same stage as Warren, at a time when his advisers said they saw her as a bigger threat than Sanders. Although she still ranks close to Sanders in most polls, placing second and third in various polls, Warren's campaign has shown a unique strength: she is the only candidate to show steady growth in numbers. of polls in recent months, while Biden and Sanders have mostly reached a plateau.
The other candidates on the stage have not yet managed to reach a plateau.
Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, in Indiana, debuted as a 37 – year – old young man who raised a ton of money. In Thursday's debate, he made one of the most harsh criticisms of Medicare for depriving citizens of the opportunity to choose private health insurance: "I trust the American people to make the right choice for him, "he said. "Why do not you do it?" Overall, however, he found himself as a marginal voice in the debate.
Harris's attention to Trump seemed to be a response to the political lessons learned from her first two debates: she had a decisive moment in the first Biden debate, but the wave of polls and fundraisers did not last long. . She hesitated during the second debate when she met Biden again and found herself on the defensive.
O'Rourke is still struggling to light the sparks that have won him over in his 2018 senate race against Republican Senator Ted Cruz.
None of the 10 candidates on the stage Thursday will be likely to quit anytime soon: they have all qualified for the October debate.
But most of them continue to give the impression that they are waiting for one of the first three to collapse.
This may well happen in the weeks and months to come. Many Democrats have predicted a Biden collapse at every turn, due to his age (76), his gaffing propensity and his long list of votes including positions on crime, abortion and other issues in contradiction with the liberal consensus of today.
His Thursday performance did not include any major mistakes, but was uneven, sometimes sinuous, and included an anachronistic reference to turntables that reminded viewers of its roots in another era.
But since Biden announced his candidacy five months ago, he has maintained his position as poll leader despite all that. He showed a lot of the quality that was the subject of the last question asked by the moderators of Thursday's debate: resilience.
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