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Here's why: Candidates have until August 28 – a week from yesterday – to qualify for the third presidential debate, to be held Sept. 12 (and 13 if necessary) in Houston, Texas. At the moment, 10 candidates have met both requirements: 1) 130,000 individual donations from at least 400 unique donors in at least 20 states and 2) 2% in at least four DNC approved ballots.
This means – because, mathematically – that 12 candidates did not qualify for the debates. (This number was 13 before the decision to leave Inslee.) Billionaire Tom Steyer, who already has the required number of donors and just needs a poll to do so.
Which means – again, maths – that there will probably be 11 candidates running for the presidency who will not be able to participate in the next debate. And if you can not make the debate, it becomes very, very difficult to remain a credible candidate.
Remember to go see your donors – big and small dollars – and ask them to reinvest in you. It's hard enough when you go up to 1% but you are guaranteed to find yourself a place in the debate. When you miss the debate because you can not meet the basic criteria to demonstrate a serious candidacy? This request becomes almost impossible.
Campaigns end when candidates run out of money. And this moment is likely to occur for many candidates if they do not participate in the debate. (Steyer has a huge personal wealth and will say in the race, whatever happens.)
Some might try to go through the dry spell between August 29th and September 12th. This is not an easy path, however, and we do not think that all race candidates today will be ready to take it.
10. Tom Steyer: Will this businessman win the Democratic nomination? Probably not. But Steyer has shown his willingness to spend millions of dollars on ads. Advertisements that helped him reach 3% very quickly in Iowa. This may not seem like a good result, but it's better than the majority of Democrats in the running. Steyer only needs one more poll to participate in the September debates, which most candidates will miss. (Previous ranking: not rated)
9. Julián CastroThe good news for Castro is that, thanks to the new CNN-SSRS national poll – where he won 2% of the vote – the former mayor of San Antonio has qualified for the third debate. He has been one of the top performers in the first two debates and there is no reason to think that Castro will not continue in September. Bad news? Castro's past debates did not move the needle a lot in the contest. (Previous ranking: 8)
8. Beto O 'RourkeAfter falling in our rankings, the former Texas congressman climbs a spot. He decided to use an unconventional approach of primarily ignoring early states and instead focusing on immigration and gun control. It's a long shot, but uniqueness may be what is needed to stand out. O & # 39; Rourke has roughly reached about 3% in polls, which is enough to figure in the top 8. (Previous ranking: 9)
7. Amy Klobuchar: The Minnesota Senator continues to do enough to stay in the middle of the second period, but not enough to move forward. His fundraising is OK. His debate performances were OK. His political proposals were well received. OK is not bad. Nor is it sufficient that Klobuchar is the candidate. (Previous ranking: 7)
6. Cory Booker: The young senator from New Jersey has one of the best field operations and a lot of support from activists in the early states. Booker opened the debate for the month of September and is expected to cross most, with polls of about 3% and a fundraising base. If Booker has a time of escape, he must hope that this organization can help him to take advantage of it. (Previous ranking: 6)
5. Pete ButtigiegWe have been considering moving Booker on the mayor of South Bend, which has generally stagnated in most state and national polls. What prevented us from doing it? Buttigieg's incredible second quarter fundraising, which, when it was spending it cleverly, should enable it to set up serious organizations in the early-voting states. and save time to introduce themselves more widely to the electors of these states. (Previous ranking: 5)
3. Bernie Sanders (tie): There is something to say for consistency. Sanders is kept at 15% in a group of 20 or more candidates. It's good enough for a tie for second place in most polls. In addition, his supporters are most likely to say that they are excited about Sanders and none of the other Democrats. Add to that the fact that he has a ton of money, and you can see why (in combination with Harris' decline in polls), we have advanced one place . (Previous ranking: 4)
3. Kamala Harris (tie): Look: Harris's drop of 17% in a CNN poll in June to 5% in the new poll is not terrible. But the number of Harris was artificially high in June, following her star trick in the first debate and she had to return to earth. The biggest problem of the Californian senator is not the number of her polls. it's that his position on health care is still unclear – and Sanders begins to pursue it. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Elizabeth Warren: Polls tell Warren's story. She moved in mid-teens during a national poll. It seems to be slightly higher in Iowa. In addition, its favorable ratings have increased significantly from those they were before. Warren seems to have a political plan for everything, which could work well, given that Democratic voters hate the idea of a president who wants to buy Greenland. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Joe Biden: The first four months of the race of the former vice president have not been perfectly clear. But every week that passes, he remains at the top of Biden's chances of being the nominated candidate. Biden is all about the idea that eligibility – that is, being able to defeat Donald Trump – is what Democratic voters will say the most when they vote. The CNN poll suggests that, at least for now, it's a good bet. (Previous ranking: 1)
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