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Completly true! But Biden's scenario eclipsed another important development of the Democratic 2020 campaign: a higher level has appeared!
This leading group has four candidates: Biden, Senator from California, Kamala Harris, Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Biden remains the favorite of the quartet, but Harris and Warren pursue him, while Sanders seems to hang on to stay with the leader.
The distance between these first four and the rest of the 200 – rough estimate! – the other candidates for the democratic nomination, from the point of view of the organization and the poll, are real and significant.
South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is currently watching the Big 4, has the best chance to climb to the top of the hierarchy for the moment, thanks to the nearly $ 25 million he's raised in the second quarter. .
Below, the 10 candidates with the best chance of winning the nomination when the voters start to vote.
10. Andrew Yang: You would be forgiven if you asked if this businessman had really taken part in the first democratic debates. Yang's performance was utterly forgotten, since he spoke as little as possible the night he was debating. What is more worrying for Yang is that if he is almost certain to debate CNN at the end of the month, he really risks not participating in the September debates. Yang has reached the threshold of donors, but has not reached the 2% needed in eligible polls. (Previous ranking: 9)
9. Julián Castro: The mayor of San Antonio needed a moment to stand out from the crowd – and he had one during the first debate. Castro was thoughtful, energetic and, aside from Warren, the stage class of the first night of the first debate. (He absolutely beat fellow Texan Beto O 'Rourke in an exchange on immigration.) The question now arises is whether the hump that he should have is enough to catapult him into a real conflict. Until now, Castro's ballot has been minimal. (Previous ranking: 10)
8. Amy Klobuchar: The senior senator from Minnesota remains stable in our rankings. She did not make much noise during the June debates and her polls remain mostly dull. But in a sense, the debates were good for her. At the moment, three of the top four candidates in our rankings have very liberal election results. The only one who does not (Biden) has seen his polls weaken. If Biden collapses, a moderate like Klobuchar could present himself as a moderate alternative to other liberal campaigns. (Previous ranking: 8)
7. Beto O 'Rourke: Do you know when you're really looking forward to going on vacation? As for months, you look at the pictures of the hotel and plan your days? And then you arrive and the hotel is a little shabby and the weather stinks? It's OW President Rourke's presidential campaign so far. (Previous ranking: 6)
6. Cory Booker: If there had not been Harris flying his thunder at night two, we would remember the senior senator from New Jersey for having a heated debate the night before. Moreover, Booker has the basics of a strong candidate. His record is liberal but not exaggerated, which could be the point of organ of this primary. The Booker Preferences preference survey is not great, although it still has good favorable ratings. Booker is the type of candidate who is probably only at one point in the debate to increase considerably in polls. (Previous ranking: 7)
5. Pete Buttigieg: We knew that Buttigieg was going to make a lot of money between April 1st and June 30th since he was the "it" candidate of the race for much of that time. But 25 million dollars ??? More than Biden, Sanders, Warren and Harris? That's a really staggering figure for a guy that no one had heard about six months ago. Buttigieg's poll numbers have dropped slightly since its peak in single-digit (or double-digit) figures, but this type of fundraising should solve many of these problems. (Previous ranking: 5)
4. Bernie Sanders: The young senator from Vermont was already competing with Warren for second place in the pre-debate poll. Now, Harris, Sanders and Warren are tied for second place nationally. It's certainly enough to stay among the top four candidates and his candidacy is far from dead. Remember though, Sanders has a higher name identification than Harris or Warren. His election in Iowa places him in a fourth place. In addition, Sanders fell behind Harris in the primaries and was even beaten by Warren last quarter. (Previous ranking: 3)
3. Elizabeth Warren: Warren stays in a very good position in this race. It was excellent during the first debate and the 19 million dollars it invested during the second quarter reflect its momentum in the competition. The transition from Warren to Sanders – especially among the most liberal voters – is a very big problem, especially if it can continue. (Previous ranking: 2)
2. Kamala Harris: What a difference a debate makes. The young Californian senator had frequently dominated our ranking in power for much of 2018, but he was behind schedule before the first debate. But after his debate with Biden, Harris witnessed a boom in his polls. His support has jumped to African Americans. Harris is also the only candidate, apart from Biden, to have obtained a significant number of mentions outside her native country. The big question is whether Harris can continue like this in the spotlight. She has already struggled and continues to struggle with accusations of flip-flops on issues such as bus transportation and health care. (Previous ranking: 4)
1. Joe Biden: The former vice president is not as well placed as he was the last time we made those ratings a few weeks ago. During the first debate, he seemed disconnected from reality and continues to face the aftermath of Harris' attack – and his sloppy response – on segregated buses. Biden is still the best-known candidate in the field and remains generally appreciated by the voters he has to court. But he fell very quickly from the heights he reached at the beginning of the fight. (Previous ranking: 1)
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