Democrats’ 2022 midterm card is rapidly dwindling

Democrats are trying to topple only about half of Republican MPs next year from 2020, reducing their target list from 39 to 21.

Why is this important: The shrinking map – which reflects where Democrats see their best chances of overthrowing seats – is the latest data point showing the difficult political landscape the party faces during the crucial mid-term of 2022.

• The once-a-decade redistribution process, Donald Trump’s exit from the White House and a very slim home majority that requires more focus on protecting incumbents are among the factors at work.
• A smaller card makes recruiting candidates even more important.

What they say : Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (DN.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional campaign committee, told Axios his party needs to be “flexible and nimble” and that the districts at stake remain subject to change – depending of the redistribution and the extent of the Republicans. overbreadth.

• “What will determine the size of the battlefield is how far the Republican Party goes in these dark paths of racism and denial of female reproductive freedom,” he said.
• Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison told Axios if Democrats pass their infrastructure and spending bills: “It’s very simple. Two words: Democrats deliver.”

Tom Davis, former Republican congressman Virginia, who chaired the Republican National Congressional Committee until mid-term under President George W. Bush, said Democrats should focus on protecting the seats they have.

• “Democrats are on the defense, there’s no question about it,” Davis said. “In 2002, we had a majority of five seats in the House, and I was campaign chairman. I didn’t get aggressive, I just wanted to take seats off the table. We ended up winning eight seats. be their strategy. ”
• “Biden got elected because people didn’t want Donald Trump in their living room for four more years,” Davis said. “But they didn’t vote for all these other things that go with him, and they’re going to react, they’re going to pump the brakes.”

Details: Democrats target Arizona’s 2nd (open seat) and 6th boroughs; California’s 21st, 25th, 39th and 48th Districts; the 26th and 27th Districts of Florida; 1st and 2nd districts of Iowa; the 5th District of Indiana; 2nd District of Missouri; the 2nd district of Nebraska; the 2nd, 22nd and 24th districts of New York; 1st District of Ohio; 1st and 10th Districts of Pennsylvania; the 23rd and 24th districts of Texas; and the 4th District of Utah.

Between the lines: The redistribution will make some seats safer for Democrats, while pulling others out of their reach.

• Democrats already predict they won’t have to spend that much at places like Rep. Lauren Underwood of Illinois’ 14th District. She won by less than 2 percentage points last time around, but that will likely become more Democratic-friendly after the redistribution.
• But nationally, Republicans hold the advantage of redistribution. Of the 12 states with DCCC target districts, Democrats are only tasked with drawing the new maps in one (New York). Republicans control this process in 8 of the other states, including 11 of the Democrats’ 21 targets.
• As recently as last week, a draft map of Indiana, drawn by state GOP lawmakers, showed that the state’s 5th district – which is on the DCCC’s target list – was becoming much safer for Republicans.
• In Texas, where the redistribution process began on Monday, the GOP will draw new maps for the state’s congressional districts, as well as its state House and Senate districts.