Democrats can not be content with Trump's foreign policy

Democrats who replace Donald Trump are committed to erasing much of the legacy of the president's foreign policy.

It may already be too late.

History continues below

Through decrees, regulatory changes, political maneuvers and sometimes simple negligence, Trump oversaw major, even permanent, changes in US foreign policy that will be fully exposed this weekend in France as president. meets with other world leaders at the Group of Seven Summit.

Thanks to Trump, current and former leaders have said that Palestinians may never have their own state, that Iran could avoid diplomacy with Washington in the foreseeable future, and that US allies may still be reluctant to trust their counterparts. US. Relations with China, the effects of climate change and the end of nuclear proliferation are among the challenges that a future president may have more difficulty coping with in a post-Trump world.

The fact that US foreign policy is becoming more and more the target of partisan fighting in Washington does not help. A Democratic president who is trying to overthrow Trump's legacy – in the same way that Trump tried to wipe out Barack Obama's legacy – risks fueling the idea that US foreign policy will not remain stable over time.

"The United States is eager to return to its traditional role on the world stage," said Jeff Prescott, former senior official of the National Security Council under the Obama administration. "But after Trump, many of our international partners will step back and ask if signing with us will be a long-term proposition."

Trump's supporters see the situation differently.

They argue that Trump has injected a much needed dose of truth into the foreign policy dialogue, particularly on issues that have been infected for decades, such as North Korea's nuclear program. They say Trump's pressure on his allies is often to make them stronger. And if they agree that Trump's rhetoric can go too far, they say his policy is not quite unconventional.

"It's just a matter of recognition of reality and leveling with the American people," said a senior Trump administration official. "This administration adheres to the law and tells the truth about the world. I would say that this is much more sustainable than the approach of the last administration. "

In particular, Trump's approach on two sensitive topics – Iran and Israel – could have lasting effects.

On Iran, Trump has cooled relations between the two countries.

It started with Trump's decision to pull the United States out of a nuclear deal with Iran. He then reimposed the sanctions lifted under the agreement and multiplied new ones.

While most Democrats running for president have promised to join the nuclear deal negotiated under President Barack Obama, they must overcome board Logistical and political obstacles, including measures taken by Iran to violate the agreement in light of Trump's sanctions.

For example, Trump said Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was a terrorist group, an unprecedented decision, despite warnings that it could provoke retaliation against US troops abroad. However, even though the Democrats have largely denigrated this decision, they may find it politically impossible for Washington to revoke the label, given that the IRGC has been held responsible for the deaths of hundreds of US soldiers in Iraq.

Trump's provocations have contributed to increasing military tensions in the Middle East and have left Tehran proclaiming: "Talks are useless."

"Now that our enemies do not accept the logic, we can not answer it," said Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. m said in a speech Thursday.

Proponents of Trump say that such an impasse is the inevitable result of the severity ultimately imposed by the United States on the Iranian regime. But it also means that any rapprochement could remain impossible long after Trump's departure.

The decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict may be another area in which Trump may have changed the landscape permanently.

Almost all of Trump's efforts in the region appealed to Israel and angered Palestinians. He ended US financial aid to the Palestinians, closed their office in Washington and recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, despite the Palestinians' contradictory claims to the city. In response, the Palestinians essentially cut off communication with Trump officials.

The Trump administration is also working on a peace proposal for Israelis and Palestinians, but the president's deputies said the plan would not support a separate Palestinian state.

A Democratic successor can re-engage the US in favor of a two-state solution – the US government's preferred approach – and even rebuild some of the bridges leading to the Palestinians that Trump set on fire. Veterans of foreign policy say that it may be too late. Under Trump, an embattled Israel has already taken initiatives that, according to forecasts, would lead him to annex the West Bank, territory long claimed by the Palestinians.

The United States has already been in a similar crisis of the past.

The 2003 invasion of Iraq by President George W. Bush and his chaotic aftermath fueled a huge global anger over the United States.

The mere fact of Obama's election was perceived as a reprimand for Bush's ideology and brought a lot of relief abroad. The new president received the Nobel Peace Prize, to his own surprise, before the end of his term.

A Democratic successor to Trump would be faced with a world even more confused about the basic principles of US foreign policy. Trump questioned US support for what were once fundamental bipartisan principles, such as steadfast support for NATO's military alliance, the promotion of global free trade, and respect for the United States. diplomatic allies.

Attempts to overturn Trump's decrees or regulations could actually make it clear that the United States is unreliable – that an agreement signed by one president might be rejected by another.

On a purely technical level, however, many of Trump's policies are reversible, particularly if they have been put in place through regulatory amendments, decrees, or other less durable measures than the legislation.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, one of the leading candidates for the Democratic nomination for 2020, said in a speech earlier this year that he would act quickly to cancel many Trump's foreign policy decrees, including the travel ban imposed on several Muslim-majority countries. Other Democrats who are interested in the Oval Office have said they would take similar action.

However, there are cases where a technical reversal may be too late.

A successor to Donald Trump is expected to join the Paris agreement on the fight against climate change, which Trump resigned in his first year in office. Nevertheless, critics say that the time lost under Trump – a time without US world leadership on the issue – could have caused irreparable damage to the global ecosystem.

A Democratic president could also take office with a new world race for nuclear weapons.

This is what some people fear Trump's decision to abandon the Mid-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the possibility that he will let another pact, called New START, become obsolete. In response, Russia, China and the United States have all shown signs that they are already building their missile arsenals.

"It takes years, sometimes decades, of diplomacy to get arms control treaties, and every Trump gesture makes it even more difficult for a new administration to hand over the guardrails," said Michael Fuchs, formerly head of state security. of the State Department specialized in Asia. .

Proponents of Trump, however, view changes on the arms control front as inevitable. After all, they note that the US has abandoned the INF treaty after being accused of being raped by Russia and fears that the deal will limit America's ability to counter the rising China, a challenge that a president of both parties would have faced.

Some say that the intense focus on Trump's rhetoric and manners distracts attention from this bleak assessment.

"America is moving towards a consensus on the post-Cold War global security environment, and nobody knows it because we are still in Trump," said James Carafano, an analyst. in Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation Curatorial.

Trump may have also protected the Democrats from a series of foreign policy measures that they would have liked to take but that they would have avoided because of political difficulties.

For example, former presidents, including Obama, had promised to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, but they eventually decided not to do so, citing security and safety concerns. other problems. Trump has actually kept his promise to move the embassy, ​​and several candidates to the Democratic White House have already indicated they will not reverse the steps.

The senior administration official described the decision as one of many decisions in which Trump "recognized a reality" that Jerusalem is and has always been the capital of Israel.

Trump also broke another diplomatic taboo by meeting in person with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

The former presidents had ignored such sessions not to legitimize the brutal regime of that country, but they also made little progress in persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

Trump also did not make much progress on the nuclear front, but it changed the dynamics of North Korean engagement. One in five survey Of the Democratic candidates, at least five said they were ready to meet Kim without preconditions.

Trump also receives applause from both sides of the aisle when it comes to dealing with China.

In general, the president challenged Beijing on several fronts, including the theft of intellectual property and other dubious economic practices. Even Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, urged Trump to "To squeeze tightly"On China.

Although many foreign policy veterans disagree with Trump's widespread use of tariffs against Beijing – arguing that such measures are hurting US businesses and consumers – tariffs could provide Democrats with a means of pressure to to counter the business practices they have long been denouncing.

The biggest challenge a Trump successor could face is restoring trust with the rest of the world. Already, some foreign leaders have sought to strengthen their links with Russia and China like the United States, under Trump, appeared a less reliable world power.

"Other countries have noticed that the United States can easily dismantle and explode, but they are struggling to seal the deal and get things done," said Brian Katulis, Foreign Policy Analyst from the Center for American Progress, left party. "As a result, many countries are trying to assert their own interests with less respect for American views."

The policy of rebuilding American confidence with the rest of the world is unfair.

While Obama was looking for his foreign counterparts after Bush, Republicans accused him of organizing non-patriotic "apology tours". There is no reason to believe that they will not bring the same charge against Trump's Democratic successor.

This is of course if any of them can defeat Trump.

"The next president inherits a particularly risky environment, largely thanks to the courage of the current president," said Constanze Stelzenmüller, a specialist in European and transatlantic politics at the Brookings Institution. "It will be interesting if it turns out to be the same man."