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These headwinds threaten to undermine the momentum of this summer, when Biden landed a bipartisan Senate infrastructure deal and found support from all corners of his party for a budget implementing his spending bill. huge proportion. Now Manchin is calling for a pause, moderates are resisting key pieces of the legislation, and a new debt ceiling budget battle is escalating.
These dynamics lead Democrats to essentially seek an internal reset following a months-long debate over Biden’s agenda that continues to unfold publicly through leaks, lines in the sand and fights for the number of the first line.
“I wish we could all be more on the same page, in terms of timing, the need to push the [American Families Plan]Said Senator Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii). “I hope we’re going to have a meeting of the spirits and not wait until next year… we better have a plan B.”
The multi-issue stack comes at a critical time for the party and for Biden, who needs a legislative victory amid declining approval ratings. But although polls show that much of his social spending bill is popular outside Congress, it has been more difficult to gain the approval of the slim majority of Democrats.
With a three-vote margin in the House and a 50-50 split in the Senate, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer cannot afford to alienate either wing from their cranky party or else the odds of one of Biden’s national signings. the victories could all evaporate together.
“None of us know where this is going to go,” said Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.). “This is where leadership comes or breaks, outright. And it is true of the president, it is true of the speakers, it is true of the leaders of the majority.
Manchin was the more outspoken Democrat, publicly calling for a break on the big spending bill with rising inflation, but the West Virginian declined to expound his thinking on Monday night when asked how much for a long time he wanted his party to brake: “Let’s see if you understand English: not a word.
It’s unclear how many Democrats side with prominent moderates in the House and Senate. A centrist Democrat running for re-election next year, Senator Maggie Hassan (DN.H.), declined to say whether she was comfortable with the $ 3.5 trillion in spending on Monday, or whether she was ‘agreement with the suspension of the legislation.
“We are at a critical juncture,” said Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin. “The total amount to be spent must be negotiated with those who question the $ 3.5 trillion. This is therefore the key week.
Democrats largely reject Manchin’s overtures to block the social spending plan, arguing it amounts to killing the bill. If Democrats don’t keep a positive momentum in their efforts to tackle climate change, improve child care, and raise taxes for the rich, they fear the whole thing will collapse.
“You cannot stop this process. If you stop it, it won’t start again, ”said Senator Ben Cardin (D-Md.). “You really have to get things done, there is no magic date, but as you get closer to other deadlines, this one gets harder. “
For progressives, dissent over a bill they see as vital to achieving their party’s priorities is enough for some to weigh on the bipartisan infrastructure bill negotiated by centrist Democratic senators. Many on the left say they have already compromised by accepting a $ 3.5 trillion spending bill rather than the $ 6 trillion or more proposed by progressive leaders like Sanders and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.).
In addition, the party’s long-term goal of adopting immigration reform is now in serious question, as there may be no way to include legal status in the proposed law. reconciliation and bipartite talks have repeatedly stalled. Senator Jon Tester (D-Mont.) Conceded that “immigration matters are a setback, but certainly not a death knell.”
And progressives are increasingly annoyed by what they see as Manchin and Sinema’s demagoguery. Just as the behind-the-scenes negotiations on the Social Bill begin, one of the two prominent moderates continues to make statements that shake up talks and block progress, they say.
“I am very fed up,” said Rep. Jamaal Bowman (DN.Y.). “I don’t think they make their decisions based on the needs of Americans or even the people of their own state.” He added that they seemed more motivated by “business interests”.
But Democrats close to the centrists say the progressives are largely overplaying their hand. A group of five to ten House moderates have signaled to leaders that they would be prepared to let the infrastructure bill fail rather than being held hostage by the Liberals over the larger spending bill. It’s a more appealing alternative to them than having to vote for painful tax hikes to pay for a rampant expansion of the social safety net, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
“I think it would be counterproductive for reconciliation,” said centrist Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii), speaking of progressive threats to defeat the bipartisan bill without the larger spending plan.
“This fiction that tying the two bills together will kind of leverage the reconciliation side – I think that’s just that, a fiction.”
Despite Democrats’ torment, a spokesperson for Biden said the administration was pressuring a range of members and that “good progress is being made.
“The administration” articulates the need to invest in families rather than big business at this crucial inflection point and to ensure that our economy is serving the middle class, “said Andrew Bates, Porte -speak of the White House.
Meanwhile, progressives are not as united as the smaller, cohesive group of moderates in the House and Senate who forced votes on the bipartisan $ 550 billion infrastructure bill in the Senate this summer and a pledge for one in the House next week. The Progressive Caucus has a significant number of members who likely won’t vote at the same time – and may not have the punch to defeat the bill if House Republicans help pass the bipartisan legislation.
“There’s absolutely a level where it’s not just something that’s no better than nothing, but something can actually hurt more,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DN.Y. ) of the Infrastructure Bill. “That’s why we’re holding on to our line. … It’s not just a flight of fantasy.
Sarah Ferris and Marianne LeVine contributed to this report.
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