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McConnell, the Republican Senate leader who was reelected in Kentucky to a seventh term last week, is poised to hold the key to Biden’s legislative platform, no matter what in two likely second-round elections in Georgia in January who will determine which party controls the chamber. .
And that means Biden will immediately have to face the reality that could force bipartisan deals – which could frustrate the left – or face a wall of opposition from the GOP led by a savvy Senate leader who has long preached the unity of the party vis-à-vis its democrat. opponents. Either way, McConnell is bound to significantly limit the reach of the Democratic agenda, whether on immigration or climate change, and could affect how Biden makes crucial appointments to federal courts and his cabinet.
But momentum could be at play to change the typical stalemate that has dominated Washington in recent years: Biden and McConnell are used to making deals together and have developed a bond they say is built on trust after serving. together for decades. .
Democrats are skeptical.
“No matter what happens in Georgia, it will be very difficult to pass anything in the Senate,” Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, told CNN. “What really worries me is an instant constitutional crisis where Mitch McConnell refuses to confirm Joe Biden’s nominees unless they have received personal approval from Mitch McConnell.”
Illinois Senator Dick Durbin, Democrat No.2, put it bluntly: “Which Mitch McConnell will we get? … If he’s willing to sit down with Biden, if he judges him. necessary, it can lead to something bipartisan and positive. If he takes the other approach, we are preparing for the next presidential election, we are going to have an empty agenda in the Senate as we did these last years. ”
McConnell confidants say it’s not that simplistic. They argue that it will be Biden’s decision on how to govern: work with Republican senators to find bipartisan consensus – or meet the needs of the left and House Democrats, which would lead to the likelihood of an agenda. blocked.
“Make no mistake: if Mitch McConnell remains the majority leader of the United States Senate, he can control the worst impulses of this National Democratic Party,” said Senator Todd Young, a Republican from Indiana who chairs the GOP campaign arm of the Senate.
Navigating the Senate, a body where Biden served for 36 years, will be the biggest challenge for the new president. Biden will come under pressure from Democrats in the House to push forward an ambitious agenda, even if that doesn’t stand a chance in the Senate. And if he makes deals with McConnell, it is bound to provoke a backlash from his Liberal supporters.
Representative Pramila Jayapal, who co-chairs the Progressive House Caucus, told CNN that Biden shouldn’t give up on a “bold” agenda, no matter what McConnell might prefer. In contrast, the other caucus chair, Wisconsin Rep. Mark Pocan, said, “I think people want us to do something – period. And I don’t know how you break the Republican Senate problem. ”
“If Mitch McConnell has to get into his shell, and we’re not going to have legislation, well, that’s a different calculation,” Pocan added.
The issues will be difficult for both sides to resolve – especially on health care if the Supreme Court overturns the Affordable Care Act. Additionally, lawmakers face an economic stimulus package to deal with the impact of the coronavirus, a top priority in a lame session of Congress that begins Monday. Other issues such as infrastructure spending and the treatment of prescription drug prices have attracted bipartisan interest, but the details have long confused both sides.
Even though he is in the minority, Republicans would have the power to stop legislation in its tracks using filibuster, which takes 60 votes to overcome. And Democrats fully recognize that a 50-50 Senate is unlikely to change the rules of filibuster because several Democratic senators are opposed to making changes to the powerful stall tactic. (They would need 50 senators to agree to change the filibuster rules, with the vice president breaking the tie.)
“We are divided as divided can be, and I have always said that I am not inclined to do anything that divides us further,” said Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia who s ‘opposes changes to the rules of filibuster. a meeting.
Murphy said if Democrats had 53 or 54 seats, there would be a “decent chance” of clearing the obstruction. But he added: “If the majority is 50, it is much more difficult to eliminate the filibuster.”
Democrats anticipate tensions within their party.
“It’s always difficult,” Durbin said of the passage of a law by the Senate. “There will always be two or three people who say, ‘Woah, you’re going too fast. You are going too far to the left. You move on issues that don’t help me get home. “”
Durbin said: “The natural inclination is to play with people in the most vulnerable position. Of course you love them and you want to help them. But if you take that as a criterion, you will have a very limited agenda. . “
If McConnell remains the majority leader, he could essentially have veto power over legislation in addition to appointments to Biden’s cabinet and to federal courts, which require a house majority to overcome a filibuster. And McConnell will have a say in how the legislation is shaped – unless 10 Republicans break ranks, something difficult in a polarized body unless the GOP leader gives his blessing.
All of this is a recipe for making deals between McConnell and Biden – which struck a series of critical spending and tax deals during Barack Obama’s presidency, including preventing the so-called fiscal cliff that could have put jeopardizing the economy after the 2012 election. But such an approach could frustrate Democrats, as any bipartisan deal might fail to achieve the left’s goals.
McConnell and Biden were forced to work together because there was bad blood between McConnell and Obama, whom the GOP leader has promised to make a president for a term after his election – a public statement many Democrats don’t have never forgiven.
In a 2016 video for Business Insider, McConnell was unequivocal about his distaste for negotiating with Obama who McConnell said was “irritating and irritating” because he “thought he was the smartest guy in the room and that he needed to share it with you frequently. “
“The guy to negotiate with in the administration was the vice president, not the president,” McConnell said. “With Biden, we didn’t waste a lot of time talking about things we knew we would never agree on. I didn’t lecture him, he didn’t lecture me. went down to areas where there was a possible agreement. and were able to come up with a result. A very different experience of being in a negotiating setting with the president. ”
Four years ago, at the end of Biden’s tenure as vice president, McConnell joined senators from both parties in paying a moving tribute to Biden in the Senate.
“You have been a true friend. You have been a trusted partner, and it has been an honor to serve with you. We will all miss you,” McConnell told Biden fondly.
No one realized their association would be renewed four years later, with Biden returning to the White House as president and needing a Republican partner in the Senate to help push his agenda forward.
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