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Taking this roundabout approach to immigration, which wouldn’t require a single GOP vote, could chill any future attempts at bipartisan reform. But those bipartisan talks have stalled in the Senate after nearly a dozen meetings, and Democrats may have their only opportunity to bypass Republicans on the issue.
While it’s far from a complete overhaul, Congress’ fiercest immigration advocates are embracing it.
“We have had an all-round approach to immigration reform,” said Representative Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.), Who heads the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and began pushing for the idea in January. . “This is our best effort right now.”
Some Democrats are more direct in private, saying they believe the current strategy is their only chance to enact meaningful immigration changes at this Congress. But there is no guarantee that it will work, and there is some skepticism in the Senate as to what can actually be done.
The plan, still in the draft stage, would create a path to citizenship for some undocumented groups, such as the Dreamers who were brought to the United States as children and farm workers already living here. Many Democrats, including the Hispanic caucus, are also pushing for “essential workers,” including healthcare workers during the pandemic, to receive green cards under the bill.
Success is still far from certain: Democrats are unsure whether the measure can survive the Senate’s obscure budget rules that would allow the bill to pass without GOP support. Democrats say they will go back and forth with the Senate parliamentarian, his non-partisan rules arbiter, to push the scale of immigration reform as far as possible.
The parliamentarian checks whether the provisions of a bill passed using the legislative power known as budget reconciliation can escape GOP obstruction and pass a simple majority. While the immigration provisions survived past parliamentary scrutiny, they did so while enjoying significant bipartisan support. It will be different, with strong partisan protest from Republicans in the Senate. (The current parliamentarian, a former immigration lawyer, suppressed the Democrats’ minimum wage hike in a coronavirus aid bill earlier this year.)
Already, the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm is about to hammer Democrats if they agree to seek a path to citizenship. And the Senate GOP is committed to categorically contesting the tactic.
“This is something we would challenge,” said Senator Thom Tillis (RN.C.), who has been involved in the bipartisan talks. “There is a legitimate question to ask whether she is eligible for reconciliation.”
A powerful coalition of House Democrats recently backed the bid to fight immigration through the budget, including leaders of the Progressive Caucus, Hispanic Caucus and Black Caucus. In the Senate, Majority Whip Dick Durbin, Senator Bob Menendez (DN.J.) and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) Are among the strongest supporters.
Durbin confirmed this week that the party is aiming to include the citizenship of some immigrants in the sprawling spending bill, but warned that the “decision has not been made” on the number of immigrants falling under Dreamer designations, farm workers and essential workers would gain a path to citizenship.
Although Democratic leaders have not revealed details of their exact plans, several lawmakers have said the party will take a trial and error approach. An involved Democratic lawmaker said negotiators were still grappling with what mix of policy changes would raise enough money to pay for other unrelated priorities in the broad spending agenda.
“I’m pretty confident,” Ruiz said, citing several studies on the economic impact of the policy, but stressed that the goal was a measured approach that can satisfy Senate budgetary rules. “We’ll be flexible and keep pushing through the process and going as far as possible.”
So far, the idea has met little resistance from Democrats, even with their margins squeezed in both chambers. House Democrats, who have struggled on broader immigration bills, have already unanimously supported a path to citizenship for Dreamers, farmers and immigrants who had already been granted protection status temporary, known as TPS. Another option is to expand the citizenship pathway for all GST recipients.
But several Democrats warn that it will be trickier to reach consensus on the other group: “essential workers,” a label that already sparks complex discussions about which employees matter. A bill by Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) And Representative Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) would open the door to citizenship for more than 5 million frontline workers in nearly 20 industries, including janitors, nurses and farm workers.
The bipartisan Senate group “is still there, but if it doesn’t work, I think there is a strong demand from many of us to see immigration in reconciliation,” Menendez said.
Democrats argue there’s another reason to be more optimistic: This Congress wouldn’t be the first time lawmakers have included immigration in a budget bill. Several lawmakers pointed to a massive GOP-led bill in 2005 that included a measure to address the immigrant visa backlog – which was cleared under the same obscure budget process but had much more support. wide of both sides.
“I think the precedent is something we can look at to feel good about ourselves,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Who heads the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Jayapal, along with other progressive leaders, recently met with Schumer, Durbin and Menendez to help prepare their party’s case on the issue.
Jayapal and others also argue that the Congressional Budget Office itself has shown that a large number of their favorite immigration changes will have a measurable impact on the budget.
But trying to add immigration to their budget bill is a big political risk for Democrats, who months ago saw their minimum wage hike drop because of a judgment on Senate rules. . This time around, lawmakers and advocates said they were taking a softer approach to lobbying, making sure not to give the impression that they were personally attacking the parliamentarian as they pushed for reform of the parliament. immigration is included.
The external pressure is undoubtedly high. Immigrant advocates argued this week that if Democrats fail to cross the path to citizenship this year, they cannot depend on major Latin American constituencies to run in 2022.
The “re-election of Senator Mark Kelly (D-Arizona) depends on” creating a path to citizenship, said Lorella Praeli, co-chair of Community Change Action, a progressive grassroots group.
Many young Latino voters who backed Democrats in large numbers in 2020 have undocumented family members, Praeli said, warning that “they had heard: ‘We’re going to do it, you just have to vote. for us!’ cycle after cycle. … And so at some point, this argument loses its force.
Kelly said Thursday the Senate should support immigrant youth and farm workers, but should “look into the details” of anything on offer.
Heather Caygle and Anthony Adragna contributed.
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