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Democrats’ long-held hopes of paving the way for legal status for millions of immigrants are now in the hands of a little-known figure: the parliamentarian in the Senate.
Democrats on Friday presented Elizabeth MacDonough, a non-partisan arbiter, with their plan to provide permanent legal status, which paves the way for citizenship, to 8 million immigrants, including dreamers, landlords, temporary protection, agricultural workers and other essential workers.
After struggling for years to reach an agreement on immigration reform, and with President BidenJoe Biden Kentucky state lawmakers vote to end school mask mandate Arkansas governor pushes back Biden vaccine mandate RNC vows to continue Biden vaccine, testing mandate MORECapitol Hill’s sweeping comprehensive plan stalled, Democrats ready to go it alone by including their smaller plan in a $ 3.5 trillion social spending bill they hope to pass as early as this month .
But first, they’ll have to convince MacDonough, a former immigration lawyer who has abandoned key priorities of both sides in fiscal reconciliation measures in recent years.
“You think about it all the time,” the senator said. Tim kaineTimothy (Tim) Michael Kaine Democrats watch September nightmare Lawmakers inundated with calls for help over Afghanistan exit We must keep the promise of the public service loan cancellation program and cancel teachers’ student debt (D-Va.) Told The Hill to try to figure out what would go through the parliamentarian.
Democratic staff on the Senate Judiciary and Budget Committees, as well as members of the Senate leadership, met with MacDonough to argue that the immigration plan complies with obscure rules governing what can be included in the program of expenses.
Democrats are using the budget reconciliation process to prevent the GOP from obstructing their measure in the Senate. The problem is that there are strict limits to what can be included in such measures.
The best-known demand that Democrats will have to convince MacDonough of is that the immigration plan has an impact on federal spending and revenues, and that its impact is not “just incidental” to its non-budgetary goals.
“We believe that the passage of this legislation through reconciliation is permitted because the budgetary effects of the bill are a substantial, direct and intended outcome and the non-budgetary effects do not disproportionately outweigh the budgetary effects. to the point of making them purely incidental, “said a Democratic aide. .
Democrats say their plan would increase budget deficits by $ 139.6 billion over a 10-year period, according to early estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.
The Senate’s plan is narrower than Biden’s pledge to provide a path to citizenship for 11 million immigrants. But Democratic staffers said the narrowest four categories gave them the best argument for making immigration reform part of the spending program and complying with fiscal rules.
They also pointed out that the bill does not directly address citizenship, noting that they see it as a bill that paves the way for obtaining permanent legal status or a green card. Obtaining permanent legal status allows an individual, if he can meet a large number of requirements, to eventually apply for citizenship.
GOP staff members also told MacDonough on Friday why the Democratic plan does not meet the stated requirements for what can be included in the budget bill. They have been signaling for weeks that they would fight the Democrats’ plan to try to get around them on immigration.
His. John cornynJohn CornynDemocrats to Advocate for Path to Citizenship in Spending Bill Friday Without Major Changes, More Americans Could Fall Victims of Online Crime ‘New Normal’: GOP Reports Big Headaches For Biden after mid-term PLUS (R-Texas), a member of the Judiciary Committee, argued that the Democrats’ plan “will almost certainly not work, according to Senate rules.”
Cornyn also recalled one of MacDonough’s predecessors, Alan Frumin, who warned that while changes to immigration are likely to have an impact on the budget, those impacts could be seen as “just incidental” to the broader objective of the immigration reform plan.
There is no guarantee that MacDonough will give the green light to the Democratic plan. She has sparked frustration on both sides of the aisle with the recent decisions. In 2017, she scrapped a Senate GOP plan to repeal and replace ObamaCare, and earlier this year she warned Democrats that raising the minimum wage to $ 15 an hour, a key priority for progressives, did not respect the rules of budget reconciliation.
If she speaks out against immigration reform, the provision could be removed from the bill, unless Democrats can muster 60 votes, meaning the support of at least 10 GOP senators, to keep it. in the bill.
MacDonough is partly an arbiter, responsible for deciding what is within the budgetary rules of the Senate, and a sort of Senate oracle, unknown to journalists and largely leaving to the senators and staff to interpret how she looks at the questions she asks.
“It varies from oral argument to oral argument if we receive feedback. There have been some, where we get a lot of questions and we can learn from those kinds of things, like looking at the Supreme Court when they have a lot of questions, ”a second Democratic aide said of MacDonough’s presentation.
Democrats hope they can fit immigration reform into the $ 3.5 trillion spending plan, dating back to 2005, when a plan to address the visa backlog was included in a reconciliation bill .
Democrats and aligned outside groups have stepped up pressure to include immigration reform in the broad spending program.
The Senate already passed a “comprehensive” immigration reform in 2013, but it hit a wall in the then GOP-controlled house.
Since then, the immigration discussion on Capitol Hill has become more polarized withPresident TrumpDonald Trump The Memo: Biden Hits Ex-Kansas State Representative COVID-19 Charged With Fraud Over 0K In COVID-19 Relief Money Medicare administrators are sounding the alarm, but progressives are suing irresponsible expansion of Medicare PLUS demanding billions to build the US-Mexico border wall, supporting cuts to legal immigration and taking a hard line on asylum. Biparty talks under Biden haven’t made much headway.
Biden, who chaired the judicial committee while in the Senate, approved the inclusion of immigration in the reconciliation bill but hinted that it “remains to be seen” whether he is allowed to to stay.
Asked by The Hill before the summer break when he would start to worry about the parliamentarian, the senator. Dick durbinDick Durbin Democrats to plead path to citizenship in spending bill on Friday Former Sen. Adlai Stevenson III dies at 90 Democrats watch nightmare in September MORE (D-Ill.), The chairman of the judiciary, joked, “I’ve already started.
and speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiMerriam-Webster’s partisanship shows itself – again – with its latest definition, with the GOP leader fighting for proxy voting in the Supreme Court. Majority in new poll backs Manchin ‘pause’ on .5T spending plan (D-Calif.), In a recent virtual town hall, vowed Democrats would “fight” for their immigration plan, but acknowledged that there were questions about what “would outlive the parliamentarian in Senate ”.
“We are limited in what the parliamentarian of the Senate will allow,” she said, “and that is very unfortunate.”
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