Demons could dethrone Iowa – POLITICO



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Reid and Clyburn both plead for their states to vote first. But Clyburn has said he will not press for it and will leave the decision to newly installed party chairman Jaime Harrison and the DNC.

Reid said he and Clyburn have spoken on several occasions about when and the possibility of the two states happening at the same time. But, said the former Senate leader, he would be comfortable with South Carolina taking the lead, if necessary.

“I’m not going to fight Jim Clyburn,” Reid said.

Outline of 2024 presidential nomination process under scrutiny in part because of Iowa sloppy 2020 caucus, which failed to deliver a clear winner at a time when the growing diversity of the Democratic Party has drawn attention to the state’s predominantly white electorate. Elevating South Carolina’s Role would pay tribute to a changing electoral map, where voters in the South – including in Georgia – rallied to support Biden in the general election.

Similar political and demographic considerations are at play in Nevada, where Reid has called for a complete end to caucuses and the state legislature is considering a proposal to do so.

Within the DNC, Democrats have spoken of various approaches, including multiple states that come first on the same day – such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina all voting together on a single date . Regional primaries are another option where, for example, Iowa and another Midwestern state could vote at the same time.

“Many of us believe that the first four could be consolidated, while still providing a focus on small states,” said Larry Cohen, a longtime member of the DNC who was vice chairman of the Reform Commission. post-2016 party unity. He also called for “further consolidation of the schedule so that states like New York and New Jersey really make sense.”

But the idea of ​​challenging the traditional order is already rejected. New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley said adding multiple states at once would mean a TV campaign, supplanting the privacy that comes when an individual state is the sole focus of all campaigns.

“People have looked at this flawed concept for decades,” Buckley said. “Only self-funders or famous candidates would be able to compete. Without a doubt, this plan would have prevented JFK, Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden from being nominated. That would make it more important to have hundreds of millions of fancy TV commercials than one-on-one conversations with people. This idea should be in the rejected ideas bin. “

When told that Buckley called the concept of consolidating early state contests flawed, Reid retorted, “I think he’s wrong to think it’s a bad idea” and dismissed it. idea that candidates do not visit states as “baloney”.

Reid and Clyburn claim that Biden himself is the good example of rethinking the current setup of Iowa followed by New Hampshire: the president came in fourth and fifth respectively in those states before landing second in Nevada and wearing the Caroline from the south. .

“These states do not demographically represent the Democratic electoral bloc. They shouldn’t be overly influential, ”Clyburn said. While Barack Obama won Iowa in 2008, he lost New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton, Clyburn noted.

“South Carolina saved Obama. If Obama hadn’t won South Carolina, he would never have gotten the nomination. It’s that simple. “

“South Carolina is a state that gives Democratic candidates the best chance of developing a national primary,” he said.

According to some Democrats, the task of pushing for South Carolina to come first – without being accompanied by any other state – could be politically sensitive for Harrison because of his ties to the home state: he was previously president of the Democratic Party of South Carolina and ran for the Senate there in 2020. For this reason, some expect him to avoid that route.

“I think he will be very careful about South Carolina because almost his total life experience since law school, ”said a member of the DNC. “He’s not a bossy person at all.”

Pennsylvania is another state that could see its status change. Pennsylvania, Biden’s birthplace and a critical battlefield, was discussed, voting earlier in the calendar with similar Rust Belt states.

Sharif Street, vice chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said after last year’s primary he spoke with other states parties about creating a “rust belt primary” in which several Midwestern states would vote in the second week of March. time did not oppose the idea.

“I expect him to come back,” he said of the proposal. “It would allow elementary school candidates to focus on messaging issues that are important to people in Pennsylvania and people in areas like Pennsylvania. Our problems may be a little different from those in other parts of the country. “

DNC members said they also plan to institute changes in the caucus process, such as facilitating absentee voting and streamlining delegate allocation – including possibly ending “state delegate equivalents.” From Iowa and use a workforce instead.

Trying to eliminate caucuses altogether – not just in Iowa, but across the country – is also on the table, a DNC member said. The committee could do so by refusing to count delegates from states that use them, the person said.

“The general consensus of the gossip seems to be that caucuses should go and everyone should have a primary election,” they added. “And this state can no longer be the first in the country.”

But a DNC official said not all states fund government-run primaries and there must be a way for those states to participate in the nomination process.

Regarding state delegate equivalents, the official said the party gives states the flexibility to determine how they allocate delegates, and it is unlikely to write a rule on such a specific circumstance.

Critics of caucuses say they make voting more difficult for people with disabilities and the elderly, as well as those who work weekends or nights. After the 2016 presidential election, the DNC advised states to use the primaries “to the extent possible”. Their reputation has only declined since the Iowa debacle last year.

However, Iowa is not without its supporters.

“There is still a lot of political capital around Iowa and New Hampshire that I think some people may underestimate within the party,” said another DNC member. “These two states have a long history, especially New Hampshire with President Buckley, and long-standing relationships” with those in the DNC.

Longtime DNC member Jim Zogby said, “I’ve always been a fan of the Iowa caucuses. I remain a fan of the Iowa caucuses.

He called the idea of ​​consolidating multiple states for day one of voting a “horrible” idea: “If you do Super Tuesday on day one, then the guy with the most money wins.”

Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Ross Wilburn said in a statement he was “determined” to make a case to party leaders why the state should come first.

“Not only that, but also the opportunity that Iowa has created for presidents, our party leaders, campaign staff and volunteers to connect with voters and have critical debates about the future. of our country, ”he said. “We are very early in this process but, as we do every four years, we are ready to talk with people about the importance of the leadership role in the country of Iowa and to make improvements to our system. to make it stronger and more accessible. ”

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