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It took developments totally on the brand for 2020 to spark a suggestion in 2021 that would previously have been absurd – the Texans are expected to trade Deshaun Watson as soon as possible. And for the long term viability of their franchise, they have to do it. These developments, you ask? The Texans got an MVP-caliber season from Watson but made their way to 4-12 and then completely alienated said quarterback during their process of hiring a new head coach. And fired head coach Bill O’Brien has left the wreckage: a devastating amount. These are all the reasons why a Watson exchange should take place. Soon.
Draft situation
- 3rd round
- Round 4
- Round 4
- Round 5
- 6th round
- 6th round
- 6th round
- Round 7
These are the eight draft picks Houston holds in the 2021 NFL Draft. Their first pick is expected to be 67th overall. That’s not what a team wants to have at the start of a rebuilding process, which the Texans find themselves in today.
Cap situation
The Texans are $ 17.8 million above the projected cap of $ 176 million for 2021, according to OverTheCap.com. To make matters worse financially, they are expected to have the least cap space in 2022 at just $ 43.7 million. For context, the division’s rival Colts have $ 155.3 million. Sure, they could (see: need to) skim some cash by freeing expensive veterans, most notably franchise legend JJ Watt. His cap alone would almost bring Houston back to … having no money to spend on free agency in 2021, because his cap of $ 17.5 million wouldn’t be on the books if he let go.
Other possible victims of the cap include:
Erase a few of those names, then you’re (sort of) in business, Texans. Well, other than the fact that the team would then be deprived of some of their better, more established players.
And, as the money speaks, let’s not forget that every free agent has witnessed everything that happened early in this offseason regarding the Texas organization. If this is apparently the most unwanted head coaching job in the NFL, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, it is probably one of the least desired destinations for independent agents.
Watson’s value and team building logistics
Even though the Texans come out of this hole without looking completely Tarnished, they probably have to accept that they will once again be one of football’s worst teams in 2021, Watson’s Age 26 season. And while his heroic quarterbacks may lead the club to some last-minute wins more than last season, are the playoffs still realistic? Probably not. The Super Bowl certainly wouldn’t.
Plus, Watson’s value is almost guaranteed to never be higher than this offseason. He completed 70.2% of his passes, led the league in passing yards with 4,823 yards per attempt and 8.9. In his third full season as a starter – missed nine games with injury in his rookie season – Watson set a new career high in touchdown percentage (6.1%) and interception rate lowest in career (1.3%).
Watson absolutely arrived as an elite NFL quarterback. Does that mean he’ll continue to break his own records every season? No. And odds are, in 2021, on another bad – potentially worse – Texan team, their production will decline to average (probably slightly). When that happens, a 26-year-old Watson won’t be as valuable in the trading market as it was at this precise moment.
Beyond that, how frustrated will Watson be in 2021 if he plays again – he will be – and Houston limps at 0-4, then 2-6 and 3-8? The longest Watson clearly wants out, the less influence Texans have when they sit down at the trade negotiating table.
Plus, the normal draft pick award returns in 2022 – with an extra fourth and seventh – but how much damage would the Watson-Texans relationship be then? Even though those first- and second-round picks are quality selections in 2022, they likely won’t really become fundamentals of the squad by 2023 or 2024. Watson is reportedly approaching 30 years old.
There would probably be contenders and also substitutes
From the Dolphins – with two firsts and two seconds in the 2021 draft with Tua Tagovailoa – to the Jets – pair of firsts in 2021 and 2022 – there are probably around 25 other teams that would be genuinely interested in Watson. A lack of suitors wouldn’t be a problem and could potentially drive up Watson’s price even more.
And while Watson is one thing for sure, the Texans need to understand that other great quarterbacks will enter the NFL through the draft. Watch the wave of young passers-by taking over the league today. If Houston could get the No.2 (Jets) or No.3 (Dolphins) picks in the draft – they’d be staring Justin Fields or Zach Wilson in the face. And those players would be astronomically cheaper than Watson – his cap is expected to climb to $ 40.4 million in 2021 and $ 42.4 million in 2022.
Conclusion
This suggestion is not normal. But Texans are the furthest thing from a normal rebuilding process. And, of course, maybe a year or two from now, they could displace Watson and get a sizable return. But it is highly unlikely that they could get so many for him when they could now, and waiting to make the move would simply delay the true Houston’s reconstruction process begins.
So whoever’s leading the Texans has to swallow their pride and trade Watson now.
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