[ad_1]
Despite falling to 5-10 this year, UK head coach John Calipari told reporters after Kentucky’s 70-59 loss to Alabama on Tuesday night that a path to the NCAA tournament was still on the table. for the Wildcats, even without the SEC tournament.
“Yeah, it’s (too early to worry) because we have all kinds of games left. We’re going to have six or seven ranked teams, ”Calipari said. “What if Terrence (Clarke) comes back and all of a sudden we’re a different team?” My belief is to simply put us in a better position.
Just three days later, Kentucky had called off their No.5 match against Texas in the Big 12 / SEC Challenge on Saturday night due to a combination of positive testing, contact tracing and subsequent quarantine of people. within the program. The team are now on a 48-hour hiatus, with next week’s games at No.12 Missouri and No.18 Tennessee officially in the air.
While the SEC is determined to reschedule all conference games postponed due to COVID-19, the non-conference schedule is no longer a priority. Canceled means canceled, bringing Kentucky’s total regular season games to 24 per year, if the team’s postponed game against South Carolina is postponed.
Calipari’s “all kinds of games left” statement just wasn’t true then, and it’s even more distant now. With up to ten games remaining on the schedule, the math just doesn’t add up to a run to the NCAA tournament without the help of an SEC title in Nashville, especially when you factor in the current inability of the team to take down. consecutive wins and build momentum.
UK tournament odds were slim ahead of the Texas game. Now it’s going to take some serious magic to even stand a chance.
What does this magic look like? Let’s look at the scenarios.
Regular season
Like I broke down last week ahead of Kentucky’s trip to Georgia, the UK’s magic number was around 15 wins to close out the regular season, a daunting task before the Wildcats have fallen to Georgia and Alabama in two of the team’s last three games. Why 15?
No team in the past 11 years – Calipari’s entire tenure in the UK – has won an all-around bid with a winning percentage below 0.558. Those teams – Florida (2019), Alabama (2018), Vanderbilt (2017) – each finished with final records of 19-15.
While those win totals aren’t possible for the UK at the moment (and hopefully they won’t hit those loss totals either), the Wildcats were expected to end the regular season around 15-11. in total to be above this minimum score of just 0.558. have a chance. Now that the total number of games has dropped to 25 over the year, here are the updated payout percentages above and below that minimum threshold:
- 15 wins, 10 losses = .600
- 14 wins, 11 losses = 0.560
- 13 wins, 12 losses = 0.520
- 12 wins, 13 losses = 0.480
That brings us to the first part of the postseason game.
SEC Tournament
Kentucky’s margin of error is clearly small, and the odds are unlikely as it is. But if the Wildcats try to close out the regular season and still find themselves up for an all-around bid, here’s where it stands to hit that minimum .558 win percentage.
With 15 victories, 10 defeats …
With 14 wins, 11 defeats …
- One loss (14-12) = 0.538
- One win, one loss (15-12) = 0.556
- Two wins, one loss (16-12) = 0.571
With 13 victories, 12 defeats …
- One loss (13-13) = .500
- One victory, one loss (14-13) = 0.519
- Two wins, one loss (15-13) = 0.536
- Three wins, one loss (16-13) = 0.552
- Four wins, one loss (17-13) = 0.567
With 12 victories, 13 defeats …
- One loss (12-14) = 0.462
- One victory, one loss (13-14) = 0.481
- Two wins, one loss (14-14) = 0.500
- Three wins, one loss (15-14) = 0.517
- Four wins, one loss (16-14) = 0.553
In a typical SEC tournament slice, the maximum number of wins the lowest-rated seed can earn without winning the title is four, because Game 5 is the Championship. Winning five games secures the SEC title, giving the team an automatic bid for the NCAA tournament.
In short, 13 or more losses in the regular season mean SEC tournament title or bankruptcy.
Was Calipari false by saying Kentucky doesn’t rely on an SEC title to make the NCAA tournament? Not technically. But if you look at the recent history of at-large auctions, it’s an extremely fine margin for error for Kentucky on this point. He might be so slim that winning ten in a row to close out the regular season may be the only way to feel comfortable getting an offer.
Calipari has pulled a lot of bunnies out of his hat throughout his time in Lexington, but he’s going to have to pull off his biggest trick to lead this team to the Big Dance.
[ad_2]
Source link