Do dolphins really do that? How could they tank … and win

You do not need to look far to find successful examples of tanking teams as part of their reconstruction. The Astros and Cubs have dedicated years of sad seasons to victory in the World Series. The 76ers, who slammed Sam Hinkie, are among the favorites to win the NBA 2020 championship. The Browns have not yet recorded a winning season, but with Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett and Odell Beckham Jr., they have One of the most exciting young players in the NFL.

The principles of tanking roughly correspond to what research suggests as best practice, especially in football. Young quarterbacks playing with rookie contracts are the most valuable players in the sport. In a league where organizations are overconfident about their ability to identify ideal draft picks, getting the most selections is the best way to build a list. The Dolphins have been 6-10, 7-9, or 8-8 in nine of the last 10 campaigns and have not won any playoff games since the 2000 season. After a decade of incompetence lightly, you can understand why dolphins might pursue a more aggressive strategy.

And yet, there are obvious arguments against tanking. Many bad baseball teams have adopted the analysis and exchanged talent without enjoying a rebirth like that of the Astros or Cubs. Hinkie and former Browns general manager, Sashi Brown, have not kept their jobs long enough to carry out their tanking efforts. NFL teams such as the Chiefs and Eagles have managed to find their star quarterback and build around them without giving up hope for years. Our Domonique Foxworth also emphasized the moral and ethical concerns of asking players to put their bodies at risk for a team with no desire to argue.

Let's take a closer look at what dolphins do. Is it blatant? Do they do a good job of tanking? Could they learn something from what the Browns went through? And then, even if they have a solid plan, is it likely to produce the kind of flip that they hope to achieve?

Go to a section:
How are the dolphins, really?
Capital project for 2020 and beyond
The importance of infrastructure
When do tank teams manage to get out?
The ethic of tanking and the NFL options

How bad is this team?

You may remember that the Browns did not win long enough to inspire a free beer promotion. During their reconstruction, they were never as bad in three weeks as the Dolphins during these first three weeks. The worst performance of the Browns under the unhappy reign of Hue Jackson was a 25-point loss to the Cowboys in 2016. Miami better The season's performance so far is his 25-point loss against the Cowboys in the third week of the season, considering the 43-for-43 defeat by the Patriots and 49 against the Ravens. With a defeat against Bills in 2018, the Dolphins are the first team since the AFL-NFL merger, four consecutive defeats of 25 points or more.

There is not much reason to think that things are probably much better for dolphins this season. Their schedule will become easier – they have played three likely playoff teams in the Ravens, Patriots and Cowboys – but two of their first three games have been at home. According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), their program is the 22nd most difficult of the league.

The same model gives them a 13.4% chance of losing and scoring 0-16, which is remarkably high given the number of chances they have to win a game. As a reminder, three weeks after the Cleveland 0-16 season, FPI thought the Browns had only a 0.4% chance of not winning. The FPI believes that Miami's chances of reaching a score of 0 to 16 are about the same as the Rams' chances of winning the Super Bowl, with the latter at 14.8%.

Otherwise, FPI is not enthusiastic. The algorithm thinks that the best shot of the Dolphins after a win will come in week 6, when they will host a Washington team that could be rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Even here, faced with one of the worst teams in the home league, FPI expects the Dolphins to lose seven points and estimate that they have only 30.3% of the odds of winning. Home games against the Jets and Bengals are the only other occasions where Miami should not lose double digits.

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They could also choose to exchange one or more veterans from their list. Ryan Fitzpatrick would probably be an upgrade for some of the injured teams at the quarterback, and it's not really necessary in Miami. Running back Kenyan Drake and wide receiver DeVante Parker are waiting for autonomous players. Albert Wilson's Wideout is not in good health, but the Dolphins will likely seek to release the Chiefs' ex-Wideout after the season if they do not need his contract to reduce their expenses.

The last star left on the formation is cornerback Xavien Howard, who signed a five-year extension of $ 75.3 million in May. Perhaps knowingly, the Dolphins structured Howard's contract to make it reasonably exchangeable. Miami would only have $ 7.1 million in dead money if it traded Howard, the bulk of which would be a $ 5.6 million payload in 2020. Any team acquiring Howard would get a star corner of 26 years for an extension of $ 61.3 million over five years starting in 2020. That's pretty much what Malcolm Butler got as a free agent in 2018, and Howard is a much better player.

How Miami is responsible for choosing

It is clear that dolphins are ready to cancel the 2019 season if it means accumulating valuable draft picks. Even if you do not agree with their plan, you can probably understand their logic. The 2016/18 Adam Gase teams were not going to win the title built with Ryan Tannehill at the quarterback, even though they managed to win many tight victories against substandard opponents in playoffs in the first season of Gase. The Dolphins are stuck in a division with a dynasty, but a quarter is 42 years old. The Bills and Jets have decided to attack the young quarterbacks and be the best team in the division after the retirement of Tom Brady. Miami is clearly planning to perform well when the Patriots need a new quarter.

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Unsurprisingly, FPI expects the Dolphins to finish with the first overall pick of the 2020 draft. He estimates that Miami holds 77.6% of the best selections, either of his own choice (76.6%), the first player or the Dolphins got Steelers for Fitzpatrick (1%). The Pittsburgh pick should be the ninth pick, while the Dolphins won under the Tunsil deal should be the 23rd selection.

In total, the Dolphins will have three first-round picks in the 2020 draft and two in the 2021 draft. They have two second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, their own third round each season, and if we assume that they are in the middle of the game. they will get a fourth-round pick for the defeat of offensive tackle Ja? Wuan James, an additional fourth quarter in this year's class. The Browns had five first-round picks from 2017 to 18, including consecutive selections, and used them to acquire Mayfield, Garrett, tight half David Njoku, cornerback Denzel Ward and safety Jabrill Peppers, who then been sent to the Giants as a part of the OBJ trade.

Quietly, the dolphins were already starting to accumulate choices during the off-season, before the April draft. Before the repechage, they conducted two exchanges that did not attract much attention at the time, but which allowed to indicate how they would value the draft picks during their reconstruction.

First, instead of cutting Tannehill, they restructured their contract before sending their former starter and a sixth round pick to the Titans for a seventh round and a fourth round selection in 2020. As part of the restructuring, the Dolphins paid Tannehill a $ 5 million bonus, leaving the Titans to pay Tannehill only $ 2 million. For the most part, the Dolphins have purchased a fourth round pick of 2020 for $ 5 million and the exchange of end-of-round selections in 2019.

In all, they spent just over $ 6 million on the selections for the fourth and sixth rounds of the 2020 project. (The price would be slightly higher after a one-turn reduction.) This is reminiscent of the famous exchange the Browns did in 2017 for Brock Osweiler, when Cleveland basically absorbed his $ 16 million salary for a second-round Texans pick. This transaction had no financial meaning at the time, unless the Browns could convince Osweiler to obtain future compensation or draw something from him as a player, which did not happen. The choice ended up being higher than expected, as a disappointing season for the Texans meant their second round was the 35th choice. The Browns used it to write Nick Chubb.

A quick poll among a handful of NFL executives suggests that most teams would not pay $ 6 million to acquire these choices, especially since the choices had to be made in over a year. The money would be a good deal if the Dolphins are able to find a quality starter in one or the other round, but the chances for an average team to find this type of player in the fourth or sixth rounds are not particularly high. It's arguable, and buying picks is probably a better way for the Dolphins to use their money than to give it to veterans independently, but it's hard to see this as a creation of further- value.

Using Chase Stuart's table of values ​​and projecting each team as the league average alongside the Dolphins, which we cautiously predict as the league's fifth league in 2020, Texans have sent more than the Bears to the Dolphins for Tunsil and Stills. sent the Raiders for Mack. Tunsil still has some time before free time, and Stills could have chosen a late pick himself, but Mack is the most valuable player.

The Fitzpatrick deal could be even better. While the Steelers were able to acquire a promising defensive back with four more years of cost control, they shipped a first-round pick after starting 0-2, knowing they will have to start an untested backup for the last 14 games of the season. season. (Pittsburgh has hinted that Ben Roethlisberger would not have a lot of distance, with Mason Rudolph under control, and the exchange clearly confirms that confidence, but if the Steelers really felt like Rudolph was not really an abandonment of Roethlisberger, they Roethlisberger, 37, should not have extended his mandate by $ 68 million in April.)

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Fitzpatrick is certainly talented, but this deal gives the Dolphins a chance to name a player whose cost control years align better with their conflict window. It also allows them to trade for a better result without having to miss the opportunity to take a quarterback with their own first-round pick. If the choice is high enough – and if FPI expects a 25.2% chance that Pittsburgh's selection will be in the top five – it could likely enter a quarter and then trade Pittsburgh's selection for a shipment of selections to a team that wish to designate another. appellants.

The importance of infrastructure

The Cleveland tanks have taught us a lesson, although I'm not sure this clearly applies to the Dolphins, given their situation. At the beginning of their process, the Browns let three of their most talented young players go free. Receiver Travis Benjamin, safety Tashaun Gipson and offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz have all left Cleveland, with the Browns receiving compensatory playoffs. (They also lost center Alex Mack at the same time, though he wanted to leave years earlier and was forced to stay when the Browns matched the Jaguars' scorecard. gave up his contract and left for the job.

Cleveland was not able to use draft picks to replace the missing starters He drafted several underdogs, including Corey Coleman, but he had to trade against Beckham and Jarvis Landry to consolidate his receiving body. He sent quarterback DeShone Kizer to the Packers for half-defender Damarious Randall in what appears to be one of the best trades of new GM John Dorsey after taking over from Brown.

I suspect that Mayfield will overcome these problems, but those Browns who want to protect their quarters again recall the importance of having the right infrastructure around a young quarterback. For so many passersby – guys like Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Mitchell Trubisky come to mind – their rookie year was essentially a waste of time without the right weapons and / or protection. Each of these quarterbacks needed their organizations to have an off-season party before we could even pretend to realistically evaluate their chances of success.

If we assume that dolphins will name Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) or Justin Herbert (Oregon) with the first choice in 2020, they will face the same problems. After exchanging Tunsil and letting James go for a big deal from the Broncos as an independent agency, the Dolphins have one of the worst offensives of all time. Although they are enthusiastic about free-agent receiver Preston Williams and Wilson is still under contract for an extra season, they will likely also need to invest in weapons for their new quarter.

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Louis Riddick has a problem with the fact that the Dolphins seem to be starting a young quarterback in Josh Rosen against Ryan Fitzpatrick in the third week.

When doing the tank, however, you are not exactly a desirable landing spot for veteran free agents. While it's fair to think that Miami, as a city, might be more appealing to the average player than Cleveland, the Browns had to pay a high price to sign free agents or retain the talented players they have acquired. After exchanging their prize against Jamie Collins, they could only convince the former Patriots star to stay with an extension of $ 12.5 million per season, the most important of all internal linebackers. time.

Similarly, Zeitler earned the highest average salary of any league history guards to leave the Bengals. Their other multi-year freelance deal was made by Kenny Britt, who cost Cleveland $ 10.5 million in nine games with the team. The Dolphins will have to surround their quarterback – whatever it is – with the kind of talent that creates good habits. These players are probably not on the current list.

How long will it take to return to the playoffs?

Another frustrating reality of tanks is that there is no timetable for turning things around. Of course, finding a promising young quarterback is a good thing, but the Colts have never been able to convince Andrew Luck to participate in a Super Bowl game. Trubisky and Deshaun Watson have not won playoff games yet. Matthew Stafford either. Jameis Winston and Sam Bradford, the first two overall picks, have combined for zero playoff positions in 13 seasons in the league.

History tells us that it takes time for the worst teams in league history to rebuild their lineup to the point of becoming competitive even at the time of the salary cap. Twelve teams in the history of the NFL have lost 15 games or more in a season. Two of these teams were the 2016-2017 Cleveland Browns, whose future is still unknown.

The history of the other 10 teams suggests that the Dolphins could wait. These teams averaged 3.7 years before returning to the playoffs. If you set the standard for rebuilding as a post-season win, the 10 organizations on average have more than 7.5 years before celebrating a January victory, and that number increases. The Dolphins (1-15 in 2007) and Lions (0-16 in 2008) have not won a playoff game since their lowest.

The worst-case scenario belongs to the Saints of 1980, which went from 1 to 15. It took seven years in New Orleans to publish a winning album or return to the playoffs. Jim Mora's teams made four appearances in the playoffs without winning a match; it took them 20 years from this 1-15 campaign to win their first playoff game in the history of the franchise.

The other interesting element with these Cowboys? Johnson was the only coach in this group to lead the team in their 15-plus season, before staying on long enough to win a playoff game with the same team. All the other coaches were fired by the time the team became good, which is also true for the teams on our roster who have not yet won playoff games after their gloomy campaign. This was also the case for the Cubs and Astros, who were run by one manager and won the World Series with another. Sixers coach Brett Brown, one of the few survivors of the early days of the Hinkie era, is one of the few exceptions to this rule.

All this leaves Flores in a delicate situation. The defensive coach of the former Patriots has publicly implied that the Dolphins were not wreaking havoc. The owner, Stephen Ross, is no longer a patient since replacing Wayne Huizenga; no coach has finished a fourth season under Ross's property. Reports suggest that Ross was involved in the reconstruction plan and he was surely consulted because the Dolphins did other operations to get rid of their talents, but Browns owner Jimmy Haslam was a full-fledged movement focused on analysis in Cleveland until his team disappeared 1 -31.

Flores is struggling with the most difficult part of this reconstruction. It's not his fault that the Dolphins spent years writing badly while spending too much money in free agency to try to fill the gaps of an under-average team. He must convince players who know that the season is not going anywhere to play hard. He has to bear the burden of frustrated fans and serve as a media punchline. If he does his job well, there is a good chance someone else will benefit from it. Flores knew all this when he took office, of course, and the fact that Flores chose to take the job proves it, however, is his mental strength. Chances are certainly against him.

The ethic of tanking and the NFL options

Flores, of course, only puts his reputation and inheritance at risk. His players are much more likely. While throwers have a limited number of throws in their arms and basketball players are a misstep in case of serious injury, football is a sport of contact. Attrition rates are higher and careers are shorter. Research by The Wall Street Journal suggests that the average career in the NFL now lasts less than three seasons. You can incorporate an entire career at the bottom of rebuilding an NFL team.

In his video on the dangers of tanking, Foxworth went beyond the physical danger of placing players in situations in which they lack the appropriate support and talent. He rightly pointed out that the players who will participate in the tanking efforts will have a bad record and the stench of a season lost in their resume, which will complicate the task of these players.

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Domonique Foxworth thinks the team owes its players not to be blamed

Take the 1-15 chestnuts of 2016. Of the 15 players who have played the most strikes for this team in attack, seven are out of football. The same goes for five of the top 15 defensemen. Three others are part of the training teams or the reserve of the wounded. A large number of players still in the league are substitutes or additional players. Only two of these players – guard Joel Bitonio and linebacker Christian Kirksey – are still Browns starters. For a young team, it's remarkable. Linebacker Joe Schobert and half-square Rashard Higgins are still not on the list. Il est possible qu'aucun de ces joueurs manquants n'appartienne à la NFL pour des raisons purement méritoires, mais je suppose que le mauvais film ou la relation perdante a fermé la porte à des joueurs qui auraient peut-être eu de meilleures opportunités ailleurs.

Pour être honnête, il y a des joueurs probables qui n'auraient peut-être jamais eu la chance de tenter leur chance dans la NFL et qui auraient une chance de lancer leur carrière. Une équipe plus compétitive des Dolphins aurait peut-être tenté de gagner, ce qui aurait signifié la signature de contrats significatifs pour les anciens combattants. Au lieu de cela, les joueurs comme le gardien Shaq Calhoun auront l’occasion de prendre des photos. Certains (ou la plupart) de ces joueurs ne perceront pas et n'auront pas une longue carrière, cependant, et partir derrière la courbe ne leur fait aucun avantage.

Je dirais également que les équipes ont été réservées à des projets à fort tirant d'eau depuis des décennies. Prenons les Rams de 2009, qui combinaient Marc Bulger et Kyle Boller (1-11) au quart-arrière, avant de céder la place à l'inimitable Keith Null. Avec les Rams en quête de Bradford, Null a marqué en moyenne 4,8 verges par tentative et a lancé trois fois plus d’interceptions (neuf) que de passes de touché (trois). Il est allé 0-4 et les Rams ont obtenu le quart qu'ils voulaient. Il n'y a pas de commerce en gros de talents pour des choix, mais les équipes ont certainement donné moins de 100% à des postes clés ces dernières années.

Dans l'ensemble, je suis d'accord avec Foxworth. Tanking est peut-être convivial sur le plan analytique, mais dans le football, il est au mieux désagréable et moralement répréhensible au pire. Les Cowboys sont peut-être le seul exemple véritablement réussi d’équipes avant de transformer leur franchise, et même elles avaient besoin d’une offre commerciale unique dans la vie: un demi-point pour rendre leur franchise logique.

En même temps, je ne sais pas comment vous légiférez en matière de football. Vous pouvez instituer une loterie, mais la NBA et la LNH ont toutes les deux montré que les équipes seraient ravies s'il y avait suffisamment de talent au sommet de la loterie. Vous pouvez limiter le nombre de sélections brouillons qu'une équipe peut acquérir, mais cela limiterait artificiellement les plans de reconstruction légitimes qui ne nécessitent pas de stockage en réservoir.

La réalité est que la NFL et la NFLPA ont établi une convention collective qui rend les talents recrutés extrêmement précieux. Lorsque la ligue a adopté un système de tirage au sort en 2011, elle a incité les équipes à faire appel à un quart qui pourrait valoir entre 60 et 80 millions de dollars de plus-value sur la durée de son contrat avec les recrues. Les propriétaires étaient frustrés de devoir payer des contrats records à des joueurs tels que Stafford avant même qu'ils ne pénètrent sur le terrain, mais le pendule a maintenant basculé trop loin dans l'autre sens. Tous les autres sports américains majeurs fonctionnent selon un système économique conçu pour obliger les jeunes prospects à payer leur dû tout en gagnant des centimes de leur valeur.

L’autre solution serait que le joueur vedette dise qu’il ne jouera pas pour une équipe qui sait manier le tanking. Les premiers choix globaux ont échoué dans leurs rapports et ont forcé un échange auparavant, notamment Danny Ferry dans la NBA et Eli Manning dans la NFL. Si Tagovailoa était sorti au cours de l'été et avait déclaré qu'il insisterait pour échanger toute équipe qui tenterait activement de perdre, il n'y aurait pas de débat. Jusque-là, les dauphins sont probablement le dernier exemple – et le plus flagrant – de tanking dans la NFL.